Canada's Western Provinces Vs. Maritime Provinces [Archive]

LooselogInThePeg

April 19th, 2005, 12:11 PM

Alberta by far has the best economic prospect for all of north america in my opinion. The province is growing so fast that the large number of migration from other parts of canada and immigration can't keep up with the number of jobs being created. They have more oil than Saudi Arabia that will last for 200 more years, that alone means they will stay very well off for many years.
lmao!
Alberta doesn't have a fraction of the oil that Saudi Arabia does. I'm not sure where you heard that but it is completely untrue.
Secondly, Alberta is fast growing and wealthy but by any measure it isn't the North American leader. Texas has more oil for instance. Nevada has a much higher growth RATE of population (as well as actual numbers) The US has the population and Mexico has the cheap labour.

Don't think for a second that I don't think that Alberta isn't worthy of praise, it's a great place and yes, it definitely has a bright future (well, the foreseeable part anyway) and I hope it continues along this path. But please, those statements in your post were purely a product of wishful thinking and not based on facts.

Dino Domingo

April 20th, 2005, 02:49 AM

He isn't totally off there bud, Alberta does have the second-largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia, is the #1 supplier of crude oil to the United States, and "could satisfy the world's demand for petroleum for the next century" -- alone.

Quoted from Time Magazine.

Visit: www.energy.gov.ab.ca for more info.

Deal with it and get over yourself. Ain't no wishful thinking by You Are To Blame, only jealous undertones by yourself there 'Peg'.

You are to blame

April 20th, 2005, 03:28 AM

lmao!
Alberta doesn't have a fraction of the oil that Saudi Arabia does. I'm not sure where you heard that but it is completely untrue.
Secondly, Alberta is fast growing and wealthy but by any measure it isn't the North American leader. Texas has more oil for instance. Nevada has a much higher growth RATE of population (as well as actual numbers) The US has the population and Mexico has the cheap labour.

Don't think for a second that I don't think that Alberta isn't worthy of praise, it's a great place and yes, it definitely has a bright future (well, the foreseeable part anyway) and I hope it continues along this path. But please, those statements in your post were purely a product of wishful thinking and not based on facts.

I read somewhere when you include the oil sands Alberta has more oil than Saudi Arabia

Dino Domingo

April 21st, 2005, 04:23 AM

... I don't know where you read it, but I can tell you where I heard it: Discovery Channel. They did a profile on Alberta and how it uses the largest machines in the world to dig up the oil.

Actually upon more research this is what I found:

www.oilsandsdiscovery.com/ oil_sands_story/pdfs/vastresource.pdf

www.alberta-canada.com/oandg/fasfac.cfm

Boris550

April 21st, 2005, 04:36 AM

The best city in each region, in terms of development and future aspirations?

Calgary/Edmonton/Vancouver/Victoria for the West

Well in the Corridor, if Calgary prospers Edmonton does too, and so on. So in terms of aspirations all cities and towns in the corridor are looking at good future development (just look at freaking Ft. McMurray!)

We'll have to see how BC does in the future, with China reaching superpower status in 5-10 years or so.

I don't see the maritimes ever catching up in terms of growth, but at least they may be able to support themselves in the future...

Q-TIP

April 21st, 2005, 10:36 AM

Anyone know the GDP as per province in Canada?

Alberta? BC? And let's put PEI/N&L/NS/NB as one?

JARdan

April 21st, 2005, 10:18 PM

I don't know all off hand, but I do know a few. Alberta is around $42 000/capita, Ontario is around $35 000/capita, and New Brunswick is around $25 000/capita- if it's even that much.

Q-TIP

April 23rd, 2005, 07:45 AM

Wow^ Surprised to see Alberta that high...must be the oil!

Is Alberta then the MOST economically stable province?! > I always thought it was Ontario then BC...mmmm

Q-TIP

April 28th, 2005, 10:11 AM

I think ONtario IS wealthier than BC and Alberta...put together?...

rt_0891

April 28th, 2005, 11:06 PM

I think ONtario IS wealthier than BC and Alberta...put together?...

Yes, however BC + Alberta's population is only 2/3 of Ontario's.

Alberta's GDP is climbing up fast. BC's economy is also rejuvenating itself.

http://www.statcan.ca/english/Pgdb/indi02a.htm

rt_0891

April 28th, 2005, 11:47 PM

B.C.'s economy tops provinces in 2004
Booming forest sector helped fuel strong GDP

Scott Simpson
Vancouver Sun

Thursday, April 28, 2005

British Columbia had the strongest economy among Canadian provinces in 2004, led by a booming forest industry, Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday.

B.C.'s real gross domestic product rose 3.9 per cent, its best performance since 2000, and well ahead of the national average of 2.8 per cent.

StatsCan reported that resources pushed economic growth across the West, with Alberta and Saskatchewan serving as runners-up to B.C.

Alberta got a boost from heightened activity in its oil patch to log a 3.7-per-cent improvement.

In B.C., consumer spending rose 4.1 per cent, the construction industry was working flat-out, unemployment was near historic lows, and global prices for metals and minerals provided an additional boost.

None of the numbers are considered final, and revised estimates will be published in the fall.

The B.C. figures are more than a full percentage point ahead of forecasts offered a year ago, and show the impact that an unexpectedly strong United States housing market -- and a global commodity boom -- had on this province's economy.

"Forest products experienced their best performance in years," StatsCan reported. "British Columbia profited most from this growth, with improvements of more than 15 per cent for both forestry and sawmill production. Output in coal mining in British Columbia rose 15 per cent, with much of the coal destined for export."

"It was good to see B.C. leading the pack in overall output growth last year," said Jock Finlayson, executive vice president for policy with the Business Council of B.C. "We thought B.C. would be doing well in 2004, but hadn't anticipated that it was going to beat Alberta -- it's quite an accomplishment to beat Alberta on any indicator when it comes to economic performance."

Finlayson noted that B.C. also finished ahead of the Canadian average in 2003, and "virtually matched it" in 2002.

"The forecast, for what it's worth, indicates that this year we will have another year that's better than the national average as well."

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Credit Union Central of BC, said average GDP growth in B.C. from 1990 to 2003 was 2.5 per cent, and added that trying to calculate the 2004 number was like hitting a moving target.

"U.S. housing starts were around two million, or so, certainly more than most forecasters had expected entering 2004," Pastrick said. "There was a really big gain in wood products manufacturing, up 16 per cent -- that's primarily lumber, oriented strand board. There was more export volume in lumber, pulp. We saw metals prices higher, coal prices up.

"Housing residential construction was up about 15 per cent or so, adjusted for inflation. Business investment was up. Machinery and equipment investment was up 5.4 per cent in real, inflation-adjusted terms."

He described the strength in the housing market as "surprising -- not just in the U.S., but in B.C. as well. We are on a four-year upswing here. The numbers coming out in the last three or four months have shown amazing resilience. Of course, these low interest rates make a huge difference."

Finlayson said the U.S. softwood lumber tariff, intended by inefficient U.S. producers to drive B.C. out of the American market, has instead made it more competitive.

"It had the effect of accelerating rationalization and restructuring in the B.C. sawmill industry. The U.S. protectionists have created a bit of a monster in B.C."

Craig Campbell, a forest industry analyst with PricewaterhouseCoopers, said the B.C. Interior forest sector "got lean and mean" enough to produce record earnings despite a 20-per-cent tariff, a 20-per-cent rise in the value of the Canadian dollar that imposed a 20-per-cent penalty on earnings, railcar shortages and "a few other complications like pine beetle."

GROWTH SPURT:

B.C. led the nation in GDP growth for 2004, with booms in sectors including forestry, construction, mining and consumer spending adding to the economic groundswell.

GDP growth 2004

Nfld. & Lab. - 0.7%

N.S. 1.3%

P.E.I. 1.7%

Quebec 2.2%

Manitoba 2.3%

N.B. 2.6%

Ontario 2.6%

Canada 2.8%

Saskatchewan 3.5%

Alberta 3.7%

British Columbia 3.9%

Source: Vancouver Sun

Ran with fact box "Growth Spurt", which has been appended tothe end of the story.

Q-TIP

May 7th, 2005, 05:20 AM

rt_0891

May 7th, 2005, 05:27 AM

Im surprised the VP for Business Council of BC found BC's GDP growth to be higher than Alberta's. Ive always thought that provinces/states with ports always do better than ones without port/harbour facilties.

?? BC does have port facilities.

Could be just an Asian/Australian trend though? :)

All of Australia's major cities (except Canberra) are ports.. or at least have the potential to be one. Don't understand what you're trying to get at..

What about Chonqing, China? It's booming, and it's in the interior.

rt_0891

May 7th, 2005, 05:31 AM

B.C. jobless rate improves again
Last updated May 6 2005 11:04 AM PDT
CBC News

VANCOUVER – B.C.'s unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percentage points to 6.1 per cent last month, its lowest level in nearly 25 years.

April unemployment

B.C. - 6.1% (down .4)
Vancouver - 6.3% (down .2)
Victoria - 5.4% (down .1)
Canada - 6.8% (down .1)

About 13,000 jobs were created in B.C. in April, according to Statistics Canada. The biggest increase came in food services and accommodation.

Vancouver jobless rate dipped from 6.5 per cent in March to 6.3 per cent in April. In Victoria, it dipped 0.1 percentage points to 5.4 per cent.

The national unemployment rate also edged down last month – by 0.1 percentage points – to 6.8 per cent, the lowest it's been since December 2000.

The jobless rate in Manitoba fell by 0.5 of a percentage point between March and April to 4.8 per cent, while Alberta's unemployment rate rose half of a percentage point to 4.0 per cent, still the lowest jobless rate in the country

Some economists say the overall improvement in the jobless rate could lead the Bank of Canada to increase increase interest rates.

BMO Nesbitt Burns chief economist Sherry Cooper predicts the central bank will tighten rates provided the U.S. soft patch does not deepen,

TD Bank economist Carl Gomez said that with the unemployment rate near all-time lows and pointing to an extremely tight labour market, wage pressures could easily rise – a development that would make the the Bank of Canada leery.

Cities:

* St. John's, Nfld. 9.2 (8.5)
* Halifax 6.2 (6.3)
* Saint John, N.B. 6.2 (6.5)
* Saguenay, Que. 8.4 (9.1)
* Quebec 5.3 (5.4)
* Trois-Rivieres, Que. 10.5 (10.5)
* Sherbrooke, Que. 7.7 (7.8)
* Montreal 8.1 (8.3)
* Gatineau, Que. 7.9 (7.8)
* Ottawa 6.7 (6.5)
* Kingston, Ont. 6.3 (6.9)
* Toronto 7.7 (7.5)
* Hamilton 5.1 (5.2)
* Kitchener, Ont. 5.9 (5.3)
* London, Ont. 6.6 (6.4)
* Oshawa, Ont. 7.1 (7.2)
* St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 6.9 (6.1)
* Sudbury, Ont. 7.4 (7.9)
* Thunder Bay, Ont. 7.6 (7.8)
* Windsor, Ont. 8.1 (8.9)
* Winnipeg 5.0 (4.9)
* Regina 4.5 (4.5)
* Saskatoon 5.0 (5.0)
* Calgary 3.8 (4.3)
* Edmonton 4.5 (4.6)
* Abbotsford, B.C. 6.1 (5.8)
* Vancouver 6.3 (6.5)
* Victoria 5.4 (5.5)

Provinces:

* Newfoundland 16.1 (14.9)
* Prince Edward Island 10.4 (10.4)
* Nova Scotia 8.4 (8.6)
* New Brunswick 9.3 (9.4)
* Quebec 7.9 (8.2)
* Ontario 6.8 (6.9)
* Manitoba 4.8 (5.3)
* Saskatchewan 5.0 (5.2)
* Alberta 4.0 (3.5)
* British Columbia 6.1 (6.5)

Q-TIP

May 7th, 2005, 05:47 AM

?? BC does have port facilities.

All of Australia's major cities (except Canberra) are ports.. or at least have the potential to be one. Don't understand what you're trying to get at..

What about Chonqing, China? It's booming, and it's in the interior.

I was saying that im surprised the VP of Business Council in BC didnt realise that GDP in BC WOULD be larger than Alberta's. BC has the port. But in Asia/Oz the more successful (established) economies are on the harbour/port facilties. There are some exceptions worldwide, but none so in Oz.

The economy of west/east coast of Canada and its prospects is what im looking for. Not sure how similar/different Canada is to Oz? :)

rt_0891

May 7th, 2005, 05:54 AM

I was saying that im surprised the VP of Business Council in BC didnt realise that GDP in BC WOULD be larger than Alberta's. BC has the port. But in Asia/Oz the more successful (established) economies are on the harbour/port facilties. There are some exceptions worldwide, but none so in Oz.

The economy of west/east coast of Canada and its prospects is what im looking for. Not sure how similar/different Canada is to Oz? :)

Actually, Alberta could very well someday surpass BC in GDP...Alberta's already way ahead in GDP PPP. That's because Alberta has one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves (2nd or 3rd largest in the world), and massive investment is pouring in from the US and China to develop the oilsands. Calgary's 3.8 unemployment rate is a testiment to how well the Albertan economy is performing.

Vancouver is also booming, but nothing generates GDP growth as fast as oil money.

All but one of Australia's major cities are located by the ocean, that's why Australia does not exhibit this special case. In America, Chicago is an example of a successful inland city...the Great Lakes shipping Canals cannot handle supertankers, so Chicago has quite a small port for a city its size.

Q-TIP

May 7th, 2005, 11:15 AM

Very insightful and interesting opinions! May I ask are you from Canada's east or west coasts? Or neither?

I was not aware that Alberta had such great oil fields. Are they located near the rockies?

So maybe BC is enjoying the GDP growth, while it lasts, as Alberta GDP growth in the next few years may be a telling sign for not only regional inportance, but perhaps on a national scale!

Australia and most countries around the globe, unfortunaetley, do not have great vast lakes of the interior of their land, to develop a successful large economy of the Great Lakes Big 5 Cities (Chicago, Toronto, Detriot, Milwaukee, Cleveland).

BTW impressed with NB having double GDP growth % over NS. Why exactly is this the case?

rt_0891

May 7th, 2005, 08:12 PM

Very insightful and interesting opinions! May I ask are you from Canada's east or west coasts? Or neither?

From Vancouver, studying in Toronto right now.

I was not aware that Alberta had such great oil fields. Are they located near the rockies?

They're all over the province. There are reserves in the rockies, its badlands, & in its pairies (Sasketchewan & Alberta used to be an ancient rainforest).

So maybe BC is enjoying the GDP growth, while it lasts, as Alberta GDP growth in the next few years may be a telling sign for not only regional inportance, but perhaps on a national scale!

BC will remain important, for it's Canada's gateway to Asia... Alberta will remain important because of its oil reserves. Western Canada will become more and more important in the years ahead.

Australia and most countries around the globe, unfortunaetley, do not have great vast lakes of the interior of their land, to develop a successful large economy of the Great Lakes Big 5 Cities (Chicago, Toronto, Detriot, Milwaukee, Cleveland).

Yes, that's true. But today, being by the lake isn't that important anymore. Of course, unless they widen the St. Lawrence Seaway.

BTW impressed with NB having double GDP growth % over NS. Why exactly is this the case?

Luck. They both have a similiar economic model, but NS itself has an oil reserve.

Q-TIP

May 14th, 2005, 08:27 AM

BC will remain important, for it's Canada's gateway to Asia... Alberta will remain important because of its oil reserves. Western Canada will become more and more important in the years ahead.

I read somewhere that Nova Scotia has the largest offshore oil reserves in North America - an economy waiting to be exploited by Ottawa. How true is this?

I agree that BC, in particular Vancouver will become vital to Asia-Canada economic relations, however, on an international scale I feel Alberta will just remain a vital regional economic (Canada-North America).

rt_0891

May 14th, 2005, 08:36 PM

I read somewhere that Nova Scotia has the largest offshore oil reserves in North America - an economy waiting to be exploited by Ottawa. How true is this?

Actually, with the new "offshore oil deal" Nova Scotia gets to keep all of its oil revenues/royalties.

I agree that BC, in particular Vancouver will become vital to Asia-Canada economic relations, however, on an international scale I feel Alberta will just remain a vital regional economic (Canada-North America).

Only time will tell. Canadian companies could easily relocate to Alberta to take advantage of its talent pool and its low taxes, pro-business environment.

big W

May 15th, 2005, 11:36 AM

[QUOTE=rt_0891]Actually, Alberta could very well someday surpass BC in GDP[QUOTE]

Actually Alberta's GDP surpassed BC a few years ago. If you look at nominal GDP Alberta's GDP for 2004 was 186.175 billion vs BC GDP of 157.286.

Look at page 11 of this report from the RBC.
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/provfcst.pdf

Alberta's population is 3,212,813 vs BC's populaition of 4,209,856
Using the October 1, 2004 populaition numbers from Statistics Canada
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/050324/d050324c.htm

Alberta's GDP per capita is $57,947.66 while BC's GDP per capita is $37,361.37

big W

May 15th, 2005, 11:42 AM

I read somewhere when you include the oil sands Alberta has more oil than Saudi Arabia

Its true. Currently with what is counted as oil reserves Alberta is teh world's number 2 oil jurisdiction behind Saudi Arabia.

Here is a poriton of an article in the Globe and Mail
By most estimates, there is more oil in the so-called "tar sands" than there is in all of Saudi Arabia,
http://www.growley.com/war/can-oil.html

Look at the second column in this article
http://www.fmc-law.us/attachments/2003.06.01%20-%20Metropolitan%20corporate%20counsel%20interview%20with%20Ralph%20Klein.pdf#search='alberta%20oil%20sands%20reserves%20oil%20and%20gas%20journal'

http://www.aapg.org/explorer/emd/04_11.cfm
http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?one/panel1.html
http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/89.asp

I guess all these sourses are wrong Yourareto blame and we are to believe PEG on this one.

rt_0891

May 16th, 2005, 04:49 AM

British Columbians are Canada's big spenders
ECONOMY I Statistics show we dug into our pockets in March at four times the national average

Fiona Anderson
Vancouver Sun

Saturday, May 21, 2005

British Columbians spent a record $4.134 billion on retail purchases in March, according to figures released by Statistics Canada Friday, posting a surge in sales four-times larger than the national average.

The 0.8-per-cent increase puts B.C. in top spot among the provinces, most of which saw their belts tighten in March. Only Alberta and Quebec also saw increased retail sales. The national sales rate grew at 0.2 per ent.

This growth follows a strong February, which saw a 2.9 per cent increase in consumer spending, after a lacklustre previous three months.

"Overall retail activity in B.C. has been doing fine in 2004," Statistics Canada's Paul Gratton said Friday in an interview. "Sales have been advancing since the spring of 2003. But the end of 2004 was slightly weak as the Christmas season wasn't that great compared to the normal activity seen in these two months."

"But [there has been] a strong start in 2005: February was strong and March is adding to that February strength."

Mark Startup of the Retail Merchants' Association of B.C. is happy with the numbers.

"The very strong showing we had in retail sales in the past year continues to surge forward," Startup said in an interview.

"The fact that B.C. saw the greatest increase [in the country] from February to March is also consistent with the very healthy sales increases we've seen and is very much consistent with the anecdotal reports we are getting from our members throughout the province," Startup said.

Quarterly numbers provided by Statistics Canada show that the greatest increase in the first quarter of 2005 was in the furniture, home furnishings and electronic sector which saw sales advance 11.3 per cent over the same period last year.

Other big gains were 7.9 per cent in general merchandise (department and other general stores), 5.4 per cent in the auto sector (new and used cars and gas), five per cent in building and outdoor home supplies stores and 5.6 per cent in clothing and accessories.

Some of this increase, notably in gasoline, is due to higher prices.

"Usually in retail you always see advancing activity because of population growth and inflation," Gratton said.

Anything related to the home is doing especially well, Startup said. This includes home renovations, furniture, appliances and consumer electronics like stereos and television.

"With low interest rates and continued demand for housing and renovations that fuels the demand all the way down to completion, where you need to paint walls and buy accessories and furniture and stereos and televisions in order to round out your renovation or to round out your move," Startup said.

The general merchandise and clothing categories have also been strong over the last couple of months after facing a tough couple of years, Startup said.

"At the macroeconomic level what we see is that we continue to have very very strong consumer confidence in British Columbia," he said.

Len Laycock, the owner of Upholstery Arts in Vancouver, said he was not at all surprised by the increasing sales numbers in the furniture industry.
© The Vancouver Sun 2005

rt_0891

May 24th, 2005, 09:53 PM

Dynamic Indian economy boon to B.C., Hansen says

Fiona Anderson
Vancouver Sun

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

India's burgeoning economy is creating excellent opportunities for B.C., Finance Minister Colin Hansen said Monday.

"India is a very dynamic economy right now," Hansen said in an interview before taking part in an India/Punjab business forum in Surrey. "We've seen the growth rates in the Punjab have increased significantly over the last number of years. So I think there's excellent opportunities for British Columbia to work together with the government of the Punjab to make sure we can capitalize to everybody's mutual benefit."

Working with the Punjab government, Hansen said, is part of the province's plan to make Vancouver, Canada and North America's gateway to -- and from -- the Asia-Pacific.

"This [forum] is a great opportunity to build those linkages," he said.

The forum was co-sponsored by the University College of the Fraser Valley which last month received $1.25 million from the province for the creation of a research chair on Canada-India Business and Economic Development -- one initiative the to enhance trade between B.C. and Punjab, Hansen said. Another initiative is the premier's advisory council on Asia-Pacific trade.

Current trade with India is about $2 billion, says federal Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh, who was attending the forum. That's 200-per-cent more than it was a couple of years ago but there is still a lot of room for growth.

"That's very small in terms of international trade," Dosanjh said in an interview. "But I think it's ready for takeoff because I think there are synergies in terms of export-import and the kind of services [India] can provide and the kinds of needs [India] has."

India's growth as an emerging market makes it important for Canada to get in on the ground floor, he said.

"Our interest essentially is to enhance trade and exchanges between India and Canada because I think India and China are two emerging markets that are going to dominate the world in terms of markets or have a lot of influence in the world in terms of markets over the next few decades," he said.

The new chair of research at the UCFV will help enhance these exchanges, he said. "Adding this kind of centre adds to the kind of infrastructure that we require to ensure that there is the proper underpinnings for future exchanges and trade."

UCFV president Skip Bassford said the research chair will look at helping improve economic relations with India.

"The chair is being developed to bring an economic expert and a group of researchers to look at applied problems of economics and trade relations to study just what the barriers are to trade -- whether those are lack of communication, whether there are bureaucratic structures that need remodelling, whether there are not adequate ties at the government level and so on and so on," Bassford said in an interview. "And we hope with that kind of practical research we will be able to make a real contribution to this growing economic development."
© The Vancouver Sun 2005

rt_0891

June 2nd, 2005, 05:11 AM

Businesses starting up at record clip in B.C.
About 27,500 new enterprises anticipated this year

Michael Kane
Vancouver Sun

June 1, 2005

CREDIT: Steve Bosch, Vancouver Sun
The Urban Tea Merchant co-founder Karinna James with a tea pot used for exotic tea rituals.

New business formation in British Columbia is growing as fast as the economy and on track to reach a record 27,500 this year.

Buoyant conditions are fostering the most startups in real estate, rental and leasing, retail trade, construction, and scientific and professional services, says the Credit Union Central of British Columbia.

They include businesses like West Vancouver's The Urban Tea Merchant, a unique "lifestyle" store featuring tea rituals from exotic countries. It opened last September at The Village at Park Royal and is doing "very well," said Karinna James who owns the business with her husband, Tom, a corporate turnaround specialist. The store employs 10 workers, including five full-time.

Retail sales over-all are the best in more than a decade, rising month after month by anywhere from six to eight per cent compared to the same month last year, said Mark Startup, president and CEO of Retail BC.

The good news is fairly consistent across all business sectors, with the exception of agriculture, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Farming across Canada is beset by the BSE border closure and still recovering from avian flu.

Some 41 per cent of small businesses in B.C. intend to increase full-time employment over the next 12 months, said Laura Jones, Vancouver-based vice-president of the CFIB. The majority of the business group's 10,000 members in B.C. employ fewer than 20 people.

"Optimism in B.C. continues to be exceptionally strong," Jones said Tuesday. "This is consistent with what we have been hearing from our members for the past seven quarters in a row."

British Columbia's expanding economy is evident in both the rising number of operating businesses and declining business bankruptcies, the credit union central states in its weekly economic update.

Incorporations are steadily trending higher and are on pace to jump between 7.0 per cent and 10 per cent this year to about 27,500, handily beating 1994's record level.

Business failures are also likely to break 1994's record low mark and come in at around 800, about 15-per-cent lower than last year.

The numbers are just another indication of a robust provincial economy set to grow by 3.8 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2006, said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist of the credit union central.

"These are above-average growth rates and there's a chance that we could see 4.0-per-cent-plus growth this year and even next year, quite frankly. It wouldn't surprise me."

Tourism has been one area of weakness in the economy but other sectors are doing well and that is expected to continue, said Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of B.C.

"It's onwards and upwards for the next year or so," Finlayson said Tuesday.

Pastrick said the growth in incorporations augers well for both employment and self-employment. About 30-40 per cent of firms with no employees are incorporated.

By industry, he said net business growth in firms with no employees was highest in professional, scientific and technical services; construction; real estate; retail trade; and management of companies.

mkane@png.canwest.com

rt_0891

June 2nd, 2005, 05:12 AM

World's top forestry executives gather in Vancouver

Gordon Hamilton
Vancouver Sun

June 1, 2005

The leaders of the world's largest forest companies are gathering in Vancouver today to kick off a three-day conference that organizers say is the largest-ever summit of global forestry decision-makers.

International competition has transformed forestry, bringing new opportunities, but also creating new problems. And while CEOs talk about a sustainable future inside the meeting rooms of the Westin Bayshore Hotel, outside environmentalists are expected to rally against what they see as destruction on a global scale.

The meeting is the first time so many decision-makers have gotten together in the same place to talk about forestry, says Andrew Casey, communications vice-present for the Forest Products Association of Canada. Global competition is forcing companies to look at sustainability, not only in terms of the economic survival of the company, but environmentally and socially, for the people and communities that depend on forestry, he said.

FPAC is co-sponsoring the three-day event with the consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. PWC is holding a one-day conference called Delivering the Bottom Line. The two-day FPAC event is called Vision 2015, and looks at the next 10 years.

"This is the biggest gathering of forest products executives ever in Vancouver," said PWC's Craig Campbell. "There will be 70 CEOs from 23 countries in attendance."

Mike Walters and Jukka Hahlantera, of the global information technology company EDS, noted that globalization has changed not only the competition but the way companies operate.

Hahlantera said a forest company headquartered in Finland is building a pulp mill in Uruguay, where trees grow to maturity in seven years. The pulp will be shipped to China, where a low-cost mill converts it to paper, which can then be sold to markets anywhere in the world.

An ample supply of raw material, production costs, and transportation costs are the drivers of the global forest industry, said Walters and Hahlantera.

Walters, from the U.S., and Hahlantera, from Finland, aren't on the speaker's list for the conference. Instead, they'll be at the seminars and receptions meeting clients and doing business.

It's not every day you get so many high-level forestry executives and policy-makers together in the same place, says Walters.

Over 1,000 people, senior executives, government policy-makers, suppliers and stakeholders will be in town for the conference. The global forest industry, which employs 13 million people and is generates sales of $750 billion a year, is in a slump with the exception of the B.C. Interior and many of the sessions will focus on issues of costs and markets.

In Canada, the industry exports $45 billion worth of products annually and employs 900,000.

Industry leaders will be exposed to the key issues facing the sector globally over the next 10 years.

"It's a great opportunity to take stock, to see where the industry is going and where it needs to go, not only in an economic sense but in a social and environmental sense as well," says Casey.

The PWC session includes one of the highlights of the conference: a presidents' panel, where for the first time the CEO of the world's largest forest company, International Paper, and the CEO of Georgia Pacific another U.S. giant, will be speaking alongside local industry leaders Jim Shepherd of Canfor and Henry Ketcham, of West Fraser Timber. Tom Stephens, former president of MacMillan Bloedel who now heads Boise Cascade, will also be on the panel.

The size of the conference is also attracting conservationists, some, like Tzeporah Berman of ForestEthics, who are on the list of speakers, others, like the Canadian Boreal Initiative, who are sponsoring receptions and still more who intend to rally outside the hotel.

ghamilton@png.canwest.com
© The Vancouver

centralized pandemonium

June 2nd, 2005, 05:38 AM

Alberta, especially if the oill prices go thru roof.

Oooh, if Alberta ever is governed by the arabs, it will beomce Al-Berta :D.

rt_0891

June 3rd, 2005, 12:29 AM

Local film industry rebounding
Film and TV activity is up 30 per cent so far this year

Marke Andrews
Vancouver Sun

Thursday, June 02, 2005

After a disastrous 2004 during which film and television production in the province dropped in dollar value by 43 per cent, things are rebounding dramatically in 2005.

Over the first four months of 2005, film and TV activity is up 30 per cent over the same period last year, according to numbers supplied by the B.C. Film Commission.

The latest film production list issued by the commission lists 19 feature films, including the big-budget X-Men 3, seven dramatic series, two movies of the week, two animation series, and a TV pilot. A number of new dramatic series will likely appear on the list in the coming weeks.

Features currently shooting here include RV, with Robin Williams; Catch & Release, with Jennifer Garner; The Wrong Element, with Harrison Ford; Martian Child, with John Cusack; The Fog, with Selma Blair; Fido, with Carrie-Anne Moss; and Gray Matters, with Sissy Spacek, Heather Graham and Alan Cumming. Next week, production begins on Pacific Air 121, with Samuel L. Jackson.

Last year, the late-May list had just 10 feature films.

B.C. film commissioner Susan Croome said that from Jan. 1 to April 15, the number of productions in the province were up 30 per cent over last year, and the number of scripts sent to her office for location scouting is also up 30 per cent. Permitted shooting days in the city of Vancouver was up 50 per cent over last year.

"Last year, we had increased competition from Louisiana, a lot of other American states and other countries, and it made us less attractive," said Croome. "It's not that we weren't getting consideration, it's just that when [producers and studios] met their creative needs and did their cost-benefit analyses and stacked B.C. up against other states and countries, we didn't come out on top.

"So the tax incentives have really done their job for 2005," said Croome.

Last December and January, a number of productions slated for B.C. were prepared to move to Ontario when that province increased the labour tax credits available to producers shooting their projects in Ontario. On Jan. 18, the B.C. government matched Ontario's tax credits, which not only kept productions from running away, it also generated interest in new productions coming to B.C.

All the major labour unions involved in the industry report increased activity this spring. Tom Milne, secretary-treasurer of Teamsters Union Local No. 155, said 2005 employment is up at least 40 per cent over last year.

Neither Don Ramsden, president of the International Alliance of Theatrical and Stage Employees (IATSE) Local 891, nor Rob Morton, treasurer of the Union of B.C. Performers (UBCP), could provide employment figures for 2005, but both said this year should be busier for their members than 2004.

"It looks like a better year," said Morton.

Statistics released Wednesday by the B.C. Film Commission showed that even though the number of productions in 2004 exceeded those in 2003 (194 compared to 169), production spending fell from 2003's record of $1.405 billion to $801 million last year.

However, 2003's numbers were skewed upwards by several big-budget films.

"In 2004, we were down significantly from 2003, but we have to remember that 2003 was an anomaly," said Croome. "In 2003 we had Catwoman, Chronicles of Riddick, Blade 3, I Robot, Miracle, Paycheck, Scary Movie 3, Scooby Doo 2. We had a huge number of big feature films in 2003.

"The production spending doesn't tell the whole story. The budgets were down, no doubt about it.," said Croome. "The number of productions in 2004 were up. Domestic production [in 2004] was up, which is good news."

In contrast to 2003, the industry only saw three big-budget features come through the province last year: Fantastic Four, Elektra and Man About Town.

However, 2004's increase in total productions makes the gains this spring even more significant. If the trend continues -- and it likely will, as a number of television series will be added to the list in the coming weeks -- 2005 may break the all-time record of 205 productions, set in 2002.

Croome believes that the Canadian dollar's rapid rise against the American dollar in 2004 put a dent in that year's numbers, as U.S. producers could not budget a shoot in Canada.

"It wasn't just that the dollar rose rapidly, it was the fluctuations it took," said Croome. "It's really hard for people to make plans when the dollar's rising. That uncertainty was really impactful, especially in television, shows that are going to last a long time. If the dollar's moving up that fast and they do a budget at the beginning of a six-month shoot, where's the dollar going to be throughout the production?"

IT'S NO LONGER QUIET ON THE SET:

B.C.'s film industry is back in business after a disastrous 2004 and some major stars are heading the casts of films now in production in the province.

10: Number of feature films shooting in mid-May of 2004.

19: Feature films shooting in mid-May of 2005.

30%: Increase in B.C. film and TV activity in first four months of 2005 compared to same period last year.

50%: Increase in permitted shooting days in the city of Vancouver in first four months of 2005 comparted to same period last year.

Source: B.C. Film Commission

SHOOTING IN B.C.:

Jennifer Garner Catch & Release

Samuel L. Jackson Pacific Air 121

Robin Williams RV

Carrie-Anne Moss Fido

Harrison Ford The Wrong Element

Heather Graham, Sissy Spacek & Alan Cumming Gray Matters

Ran with fact boxes "Shooting in B.C." and "It's No Longer Quiet on the Set", which have been appended to the end of the story.
© The Vancouver Sun 2005

rt_0891

June 3rd, 2005, 12:30 AM

B.C. forest industry the best in the world
It had record-breaking profits of $1.5 billion in 2004

Gordon Hamilton
Vancouver Sun

Thursday, June 02, 2005

British Columbia's forest industry outperformed the world in 2004, with record-breaking earnings of $1.5 billion, delegates to the Global Forest and Paper Summit were told Wednesday.

"This industry has come out on top of the pack," said Craig Campbell of PricewaterhouseCoopers, describing B.C.'s revitalized and efficient Interior sawmilling sector.

The province now has the largest sawmill in the world at Houston, and an even bigger one is being built at Vanderhoof. Campbell dubbed these new mills "super-sized," saying they are a significant factor in this province's drive to become the world's top lumber producer.

B.C.'s record performance came against a backdrop of generally depressed industry results worldwide and despite the poor performance of some sectors, particularly the coastal industry and pulp and paper.

The looming crisis of the mountain pine beetle infestation also cast a shadow on the sunshine performance of the Interior mills. The beetle is destroying Interior forests and wood must be processed before it dries out and loses its structural strength. The good times can last no more than 10 years, Campbell warned.

In fact, one company, Ainsworth, is building two new oriented-strand board mills in the Interior with a 10-year life expectancy strictly to harvest beetle-damaged timber.

When the beetle wood is gone, sawmills will close, jobs will be lost and the provincial economy will suffer, Campbell said.

The B.C. industry earned $1.5 billion in profits despite a $2-billion hit the sector took because of the weakening U.S. dollar and another $1 billion that lumber producers paid in softwood lumber duties, Campbell noted.

The key indicator of financial health in the industry, however, is not profits. Because forest products manufacturing is so capital intensive, PricewaterhouseCoopers measures performance using return on capital employed. Campbell said most investors seek a 10-to-12 per cent return on capital employed. In 2004, the B.C. industry earned 11 per cent, up from 3.2 per cent the year before. In comparison, the average ROCE for the top 100 forest companies in the world was only 5.4 per cent -- less than half that of the B.C. industry.

The sawmilling industry began its transition from middle of the pack to top dog after the U.S. government imposed anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber in 2001.

To reduce the duty, companies tried to get their costs down. At the same time, the B.C. government initiated policy reforms that permitted companies to shut down old inefficient mills and transfer production to lower-cost mills.

That initiated a round of consolidation -- Canfor bought Slocan, Riverside bought Lignum, and Tolko bought Riverside.

That, said Campbell, opened the gates for a flood of investment dollars which went into upgrading their lowest-cost mills to make them the "super-sized" mills of today.

A side-effect of the transformation, he said, has been the development of sawmilling technology in this province. The technology being used in B.C. mills is locally developed and is now the best in the world, he said.

The remarkable performance of Interior sawmills, which accounts for 45 per cent of total B.C. forest products output, was not reflected in other sectors of the the provincial industry. The coastal lumber industry remains troubled and Campbell described the smaller pulp and paper industry as "a drag on earnings."

ghamilton@png.canwest.com

rt_0891

June 3rd, 2005, 12:44 AM

Housing affordability erodes
Lower borrowing costs undermined by higher prices, slower income growth: RBC

Canadian Press

Thursday, June 02, 2005

TORONTO (CP) -- Higher home prices, slower income growth and increased utility costs eroded Canada's housing affordability in the first three months of the year despite lower borrowing costs, Canada's largest mortgage lender said Thursday.

Rising ownership costs are making it more difficult for first-time buyers, Royal Bank of Canada economist Allan Seychuk said in releasing the RBC housing affordability index.

While Canadian incomes are rising by one to five per cent annually, housing prices are increasing at two to 12 per cent, Seychuk said in an interview.

That squeeze is overwhelming recent small declines in mortgage rates, he said, notably in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

"House price growth is expected to continue," although at a slower pace than recent years, he said.

"At the same time, mortgage rates are expected to gently rise over 2005, 2006. Those two trends, together with higher energy costs, are going to make affordability get steadily worse in some big cities for the near term."

Vancouver's unaffordability is so severe that it has skewed the national average , as average prices in the city have jumped by about $25,000 in the past six months.

"Recent news has not been good for someone looking to get into the West Coast housing market," Thursday's report commented.

Meanwhile, "we're pleased to see that in Ontario it really didn't get that much worse," Seychuk said.

Activity has slowed in the province as migration moves westward. Couple in slower job growth and weaker economic growth, and it's clear that demand is cooling, he said, while noting that it remains at healthy levels.

Housing prices in Toronto during the first quarter of this year were 5.6 per cent higher than in the same period last year, with the average cost of a two-storey home at $442,500, the report said.

Toronto condominium prices continued to soar, to $241,000 for a standard condo, but the market appeared to be losing steam. The year-over-year price rise of 6.4 per cent was the slowest increase in at least 13 quarters.

"An argument could be made that condo prices are feeling the weight of the large increase in supply in the past few years," the report said.

Meanwhile, prices in Winnipeg are snowballing. "There's some serious land shortages in Winnipeg that mean Manitoba's position as the most affordable market is probably going to come to an end," Seychuk said.

Despite rising overall prices, the report noted that affordability remains healthy by historical standards.

Alberta remained one of most affordable regions in which to buy a home, thanks to an abundance of land and high average incomes.

The index is based on the cost of owning a detached bungalow, a property benchmark for the housing market, relative to average incomes. The higher the index, the more difficult it is to afford a home.

RBC's affordability index for Canada's largest cities for the first quarter:

#
Vancouver: 56.2 per cent
#
Toronto: 42.8 per cent
#
Montreal: 34.8 per cent
#
Calgary: 32.5 per cent
#
Ottawa: 32.1 per cent

rt_0891

June 4th, 2005, 03:45 AM

Home sales soar sky-high
Experts say this is no bubble, but sustainable growth driven by market confidence

Derrick Penner
Vancouver Sun

Friday, June 03, 2005

Lower Mainland real estate sales reached new highs in May with the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver recording its highest volume of Multiple Listing Service sales of any month, and the Fraser Valley Real Estate board experiencing its best May on record.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver saw 4,434 units sold during the month, a 13.2-per-cent increase over May of last year, the most ever sold in one month, driven by high demand for condominiums.

Realtors in the Fraser Valley sold 2,067 units, a seven-per-cent increase compared with 1,973 in May of 2004 and just above the region's next best May in 1991, which saw 2,064 units trade hands.

The average price of a single-family home in the Fraser Valley was also up nine per cent to $389,288 from a year ago.

"What has happened in the housing market in Greater Vancouver is we've made a rapid transition from a market driven by pent-up demand and low mortgage rates to a market that is driven by a really strong-performing economy, which is driving job growth and wage growth," Cameron Muir, senior market analyst for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said in a telephone interview.

Gone, said Muir, are the days when the market was dominated solely by buyers enticed by low mortgage rates in an economic environment that still lacked confidence.

Muir said that market is being replaced by a period of strong market fundamentals: Population growth due to high immigration and interprovincial migration, and increasing numbers of new, well-paying jobs in the economy.

"The reason why we don't have a housing bubble is that we do have strong fundamentals underlying the market," he added.

Georges Pahud, president of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, said the sales numbers were only "marginally surprising, [because] you're always surprised when there's a record." Otherwise, realtors knew they were dealing with a strong market with "more and more people coming to open houses."

"Consumers are demonstrating confidence in the economy, and investing in real estate," Pahud said.

He added that the high number of apartment sales indicates that "buyers looking for a certain lifestyle are still in the market."

MLS data shows that 1,974 apartment units were sold during May, an 11.8-per-cent increase from May a year ago. Apartment prices, however, were up 13 per cent.

Townhouse sales increased 17.3 per cent to 684 units in May, with prices also up 8.9 per cent. Sales of detached homes, at 1,776 units, were up 13.3 per cent while prices were up 8.7 per cent on the board's housing price index.

Jake Siemens, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, said the strong prices in the valley -- increases of nine per cent on detached homes and 15 per cent for townhouses -- were the most surprising developments in his markets.

Strong sales, however, were not unexpected.

"There [has been] a little bit of fluctuation on interest rates, for sure, but nothing to the point where people are concerned about it," Siemens said. "People are feeling very confident with what's happening in B.C., market-wise and job-wise."

The Fraser Valley saw 1,184 single-family homes sold during May, up 15 per cent from May of 2004, with an average price nine-per-cent higher than a year ago, at $389,288.

Townhouse sales were 343, a shade below the 348 units moved a year ago, but the $250,447 average price was 15.4 per cent higher.

Fraser Valley apartment sales, of 303 units, were also almost unchanged from the 304 sold in May of 2004, though their $148,401 was 4.1 per cent higher.

Muir added, half jokingly, that a fair-weather factor might have been at work in May as well.

"The weather was so nice, it was good house-hunting weather," he said.

REAL ESTATE HOME RUN: SALES REACH RECORDS:

Vancouver: Volume sales record

13.2%

Sales increase

4,434

Units sold

$588,877

Average price, detached home

Fraser Valley: Record sales for May

7%

Sales increase

2,067

Units sold

$389,288

Average price, detached home

Ran with fact box "Real Estate Home Run: Sales Reach Records", which has been appended to the end of the story.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

muchbetter

June 4th, 2005, 06:52 AM

Alberta, I believe.

rt_0891

June 8th, 2005, 03:01 AM

Stronger growth predicted for B.C.
Province will challenge Alberta for No. 1 spot, bank economist says

Michael Kane
Vancouver Sun

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

British Columbia could surpass Alberta as Canada's growth leader within the next few years, despite the drag of a strengthening dollar, a national bank economist says.

Warren Jestin points to continuing strength in commodity prices and the B.C. housing market, coupled with in-migration and an infrastructure boom around Vancouver's Asian gateway role.

"Growth is shifting west and I would certainly pick B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan to be the provinces that will do extraordinarily well over the next three to five years," the chief economist of Scotiabank said Monday in an interview.

"The top performer's spot will be a horse race between B.C. and Alberta. Five years ago you would have said unambiguously Alberta is going to lead the pack. I think B.C. has a good shot at taking the No. 1 position."

Jestin was in Vancouver for a C.D. Howe Institute panel where he predicted the Canadian dollar will break out of its current trading range and move above 85 cents US within six to nine months.

While a stronger currency tends to mean lower prices for exporters, he said manufacturers across Canada have adapted to "an amazing degree," in some cases outsourcing parts to Asia to offset cost increases while still processing products here.

"At the end of the day, margins are getting squeezed and it is pretty challenging for manufacturers. But the currency negatives are less of a drag on B.C. than other parts of the country because there are so many positive offsets in other areas."

He said those include a commodities boom that is set to last for a few years, a lumber industry that is profitable despite U.S. import barriers, sound provincial government finances, employment growth, in-migration, robust retail sales, a solid housing market and strong export demand from Asia.

"The big issue then is getting goods to market, which by itself it part of the infrastructure boom that will keep growth going for some time," he said.

"You can point to the Olympics but things like the Asian gateway are more significant longer term. I suspect Ottawa will be putting significant funds in there as well to keep the economy in the fast lane."

Jestin acknowledges that Scotiabank's dollar outlook is at the high end but argues that a worsening U.S. trade deficit will weaken the greenback and global investors will ultimately diversify their currency portfolios.

Meanwhile, he says, the commodities boom, and substantial interest in investment in Canadian energy and resources, will take the dollar higher.

"The thing that is different now is that we are in the midst of a commodity boom that in our judgment is going to last for a few years, not a few months.

"So when you put the the U.S. dollar weakness together with the energy side and the resources side of the equation, you end up with a currency that goes up."

Jestin says the Bank of Canada is in no hurry to raise short-term interest rates and they could remain where they are today for nine months to a year. He also anticipates that the U.S. will boost rates one more time at the end of June and then stand pat.

"So for the average guy in the street, mortgage rates and things like car loans are going to remain pretty attractive."

mkane@png.canwest.com

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

rt_0891

June 8th, 2005, 03:04 AM

Building boom just keeps booming
Applications for non-residential construction surge

Scott Simpson
Vancouver Sun

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

New indications of British Columbia's robust economy emerged Monday with Statistics Canada announcing that non-residential construction continues to charge along at an "unbelievable" pace.

The value of permits issued for non-residential construction projects actually dipped 29 per cent in April, compared to March -- but an economist with Stats Can advised that the B.C. numbers are nonetheless outstanding.

The permits reflect municipal approvals for new projects that are likely to get underway in the near future.

The non-residential sector is the harbinger of new employment opportunities because it encompasses everything from construction of public institutions and office towers to sawmills, mines, warehouses and retail stores.

Permits issued in April were valued at $273 million across B.C., compared to a record $382 million in March. The former record was set in January of 2000 -- $370 million.

"The decline in value in April is important, but it's a step down from a record high. And despite the decline, the [value] remained very high," said Statistics Canada economist Etienne Saint-Pierre.

The cumulative value of non-residential building permits issued through the first four months of the year is the highest on record for the January-April period, $1.085 billion. That's 34.4 per cent higher than any similar period on record, and nearly double the value of activity in the same four months in 2004.

The previous record for the first four months of the year was $807 million in 2001.

According to Abigail Fulton, vice-president of the B.C. Construction Association, the non-residential sector is just warming up, and is expected to overtake B.C.'s red-hot residential construction sector in the coming years.

"Up until now there has been a big boom in residential, but we think this is going to shift and over the next 10 years you are going to see a real boom in non-residential," Fulton said. "The Olympics will fuel some of it, but really a small proportion in what's happening to the economy."

Stats Can reported that the value of residential construction permits issued by British Columbia municipalities rose 13 per cent in April, compared to March, and permit values are up 14.9 per cent for the year to date at $2.138 billion.

"The data for both residential and non-residential construction, on an historical basis, are at record highs in 2005," Saint-Pierre said.

"The figures are very strong for B.C. -- it's a pillar of strength in Canada for construction, especially this year when I look at the non-residential figure it's quite unbelievable."

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Credit Union Central of B.C. noted that 2004 "was not a banner year" for non-residential construction.

"Now we're seeing in the last six months or so, commercial permits are up, we even had a bit of a spike in institutional-government construction," Pastrick said.

He noted that some of the value of the permits reflects higher costs for construction materials, energy and labour -- on the other hand, project costs may be higher than the permits estimate.

In Greater Vancouver, non-residential permits were up 87 per cent in the first four months, with the Vancouver Regional Construction Association attributing the activity to "a strong domestic economy."

"All of these projects translate into jobs," said association president Keith Sashaw in an interview.

"Things like the Trade and Convention Centre are going to require hundreds, if not thousands, of people to work the conventions. A lot of the non-residential investment is in commercial activities, warehouses, commercial expansions, all of those things which generally mean a pretty optimistic and buoyant environment."

ssimpson@png.canwest.com

THE BIG BUILD-UP:

B.C. and Alberta are leading the country in building-permit growth rates so far this year, Statistics Canada reported Monday.

Value of building permits % change

Jan.-April 2004 vs. Jan.-April 2005

B.C.: +32.7

Alberta: +48.2

Saskatchewan: +15.1

Manitoba: -0.2

Ontario: +8.3

Quebec: -5.3

Nova Scotia: +2.7

New Brunswick: +2.9

P.E.I.: +10.7

Newfoundland: +25.8

Source: Statistics Canada

UP IN THE VALLEY

Of B.C.'s three biggest census metropolitan areas, Abbotsford in the Fraser Valley showed the fastest building-permit growth rate so far this year.

Value of building permits % change

Jan.-April 2004 vs. Jan.-April 2005

Abbotsford: +144% ($130.8 million)

Victoria: +39% ($220.5 million)

Vancouver: +15.7% ($1.682 billion)

Ran with fact boxes "The Big Build-Up" and "Up in the Valley", which have been appended to the end of the story.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

rt_0891

June 10th, 2005, 10:27 PM

B.C. boasts low unemployment rate

Broadcast News

Friday, June 10, 2005

ADVERTISEMENT
VICTORIA -- Finance Minister Colin Hansen is boasting about B.C.'s latest jobless figures.

He says the unemployment rate fell to 5.7 per cent in May, the second-lowest monthly rate on record and the lowest point since January of 1981.

Hansen also says B.C. has the fastest rate of job growth in Canada, creating more than 17,000 jobs in May.

He says that accounts for half of all new jobs in Canada.

Construction is leading the job creation boom, with the building sector responsible for 32,000 new jobs, an increase of almost 24 per cent.

© Broadcast News 2005

rt_0891

June 12th, 2005, 04:50 AM

Record employment: 2.132 million people now have jobs in B.C.
WORKING I B.C. unemployment rate is the lowest since 1981

Derrick Penner
Vancouver sun

Saturday, June 11, 2005

18,000

new jobs in May

9,000

new public sector jobs

7,000

new transport jobs

83,700

more jobs than a year ago

British Columbia's booming economy showed the strongest employment growth in Canada in May, adding 18,000 new jobs and dropping the provincial unemployment rate to 5.7 per cent, its second lowest level on record, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

Statistics Canada, in its May labour force survey, said employment growth is up two per cent so far this year, a boost that Human Resources Development Canada (HRDC) said pushed the province's over-all employment to a new high of 2.132 million, an increase of 83,700 jobs from May 2004.

It is the lowest unemployment rate in B.C. since January 1981 when it dipped to 5.5 per cent.

Nationally, 35,000 new jobs were created in May, the second consecutive month of growth, boosting employment by 90,000 positions since the start of the year. Canada's unemployment rate held stable at 6.8 per cent.

Alberta had the lowest unemployment rate at 3.5 per cent followed by Saskatchewan at 4.5 per cent and Manitoba at 5.1 per cent. Ontario's unemployment stood at 6.9 per cent and Quebec's ballooned to 8.8 per cent.

HRDC economist Robert Mattioli said B.C.'s employment rate of 62 per cent for May is the highest it has been since 1990.

He said that all B.C.'s new jobs were full time, and that some 10,400 people jumped into the labour force lured by the economy's strong performance.

"[The] participation rate is holding steady," Mattioli said. "[Sometimes low unemployment] is a superficial sign that things are good when it is the participation rate that drops. It's quite the opposite here."

Statistics Canada reported that B.C.'s biggest job gains were in public administration, with 9,000 people hired, and transportation, which saw 7,000 people brought into new jobs.

The monthly figures show construction sector employment down by 6,000 in May from April. Mattioli said the figure falls within the labour force survey's standard of error, and could be a fluke.

Mattioli said the growth in full-time employment likely reflects the fact that people are being moved from part-time to full-time status, not that part-time jobs are being lost.

"That goes along with just a healthy labour market," he added.

James Brander, a professor in the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said May typically shows stronger employment results, because it is the month before large numbers of people hit the summer job market.

"Notwithstanding that, 18,000 new jobs for B.C. is strong, and the composition is fine," Brander said. "It is one of the lowest measured unemployment rates on record, and is a pretty positive picture."

Dave Park, chief economist for the Vancouver Board of Trade, said confidence is a factor as well. Anecdotally, he was hearing that businesses were holding back on spending earlier in the year because of "a real fear about the results of the [provincial] election."

However, business owners "began opening the gates" about two weeks before the vote when they were more certain of the result.

"Business confidence is part of it," he said. "Everybody is on a roll, and that's a little bit contagious."

Park said it is no surprise that transportation would be a source of job gains, which he believes reflects the pace in the movement of goods, both inside the province and in transhipments through the province's ports.

"We can hardly keep up with the demand for the movement of goods through the port," he added.

Len Cocolicchio, spokesman for Canadian Pacific Railway, said his company is one of the firms in growth mode. He said that to date, the railway has hired about 550 of the 1,100 people it expects to hire system-wide in 2005.

Cocolicchio added that a large number of the new jobs will be in B.C. and the West, because the company is experiencing the most growth in demand for rail services from the prairie provinces through to the Pacific gateway in Vancouver.

Growth in public-sector employment perhaps shouldn't be surprising either, Park said, because the federal government has surplus money to spend, and the province is starting to back-fill positions and "do some of the things they cut back."

"They're into a new fiscal year, and if [government departments] have got a new lease on life, that would be the time for [hiring] to happen," he added.

May's labour force numbers came as good news to provincial Finance Minister Colin Hansen, who said in a news release that the growth "moves us closer to our great goal of creating more jobs per capita than anywhere else in Canada."

Hansen looks at the job growth, increasing business investment and inter-provincial migration as evidence "[the government's] plan to rebuild the economy is working."

Carol Frketich, regional economist for Canada Mortgage and Housing, said in a news release that job growth will also keep driving real estate sales and new home construction. She predicts that B.C. will see 33,600 new housing starts in 2005, a 2.1-per-cent increase from 2004.

depenner@png.canwest.com