Will Shanghai surpass Tokyo?

[shibuya_suki]

as we know, shanghai was the top asia leading city on 1920-30s,tokyo was second at that time...

afterWWII and 1949,communist party rule china, and economic develop stop from1949-1990....

since china open his market again in recent year,shanghai once again become the most important city in china,and it continous a fucking amazing speed of building the new shanghai,and government wants it take back what he lost in this 50years,.....to surpass tokyo,dominate asia again...

what guys do u think this thing?if it can, when?20years,50years? never?

[Hed Kandi]

I think it can but it will take at least an other 15 years.
You also have to pass the image not just the results. :cheers:

[Jury]

very soon... 15 years i say

[coldstar]

as we know, shanghai was the top asia leading city on 1920-30s,tokyo was second at that time...



You'd better not forget about the obvious fact that Shanghai was the occupied territory by UK, USA, Japan, and France at that time.
but Tokyo was not of course. And Tokyo (and Osaka as well) has subway lines even before WW2.

[1st Division Marine]

yes i think shanghai will surpass tokyo and ill be real proud.

[Sitback]

I reckon China will become the richest country in the world one day.

[N/A]

15 years are too optimistic....if we are talking about GDP or on the street level.

[km-sh]

Economic data of Shanghai
If the Population does not contain the floating population,things will be like this.
2002GDP:65.40billion us dollar
nominal increase rate:15.56% actual gdp increase rate:11.8％
2003GDP:75.58billion us dollar---Population:13.42million---GDP per capita:5632 us dollar
nominal increase rate:19.21% actual gdp increase rate:13.6%
2004GDP:90.10billion us dollar---Population:13.52million---GDP per capita:6664 us dollar
conjecture
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2005GDP:104.52billion us dollar---Population:13.62million---GDP per capita:7674 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2006GDP:121.24billion us dollar---Population:13.73million---GDP per capita:8830 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2007GDP:140.64billion us dollar---Population:13.84million---GDP per capita:10162 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2008GDP:163.14billion us dollar---Population:13.95million---GDP per capita:11695 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2009GDP:189.24billion us dollar---Population:14.06million---GDP per capita:13459 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:[2010 Shanghai EXPO]
2010GDP:219.52billion us dollar---Population:14.17million---GDP per capita:15492 us dollar


If the Population contains the floating population,things will be like this.
2002GDP:65.40billion us dollar
nominal increase rate:15.56% actual gdp increase rate:11.8％
2003GDP:75.58billion us dollar---Population:17.00million---GDP per capita:4446 us dollar
nominal increase rate:19.21% actual gdp increase rate:13.6%
2004GDP:90.10billion us dollar---Population:17.50million---GDP per capita:5149 us dollar
conjecture
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2005GDP:104.52billion us dollar---Population:18.00million---GDP per capita:5807 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2006GDP:121.24billion us dollar---Population:18.40million---GDP per capita:6589 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2007GDP:140.64billion us dollar---Population:18.80million---GDP per capita:7481 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2008GDP:163.14billion us dollar---Population:19.20million---GDP per capita:8497 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
2009GDP:189.24billion us dollar---Population:19.60million---GDP per capita:9655 us dollar
nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:[2010 Shanghai EXPO]
2010GDP:219.52billion us dollar---Population:20.00million---GDP per capita:10976 us dollar

[km-sh]

Shanghai should surpass Singapore and HK first.

[km-sh]

If the Population contains the floating population,things will be like this.
2002GDP:65.40billion us dollar
2003:nominal increase rate:15.56% actual gdp increase rate:11.8％
GDP:75.58billion us dollar---Population:17.00million---GDP per capita:4446 us dollar
2004:nominal increase rate:19.21% actual gdp increase rate:13.6%
GDP:90.10billion us dollar---Population:17.50million---GDP per capita:5149 us dollar
conjecture
2005:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:104.52billion us dollar---Population:18.00million---GDP per capita:5807 us dollar
2006:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:121.24billion us dollar---Population:18.40million---GDP per capita:6589 us dollar
2007:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:140.64billion us dollar---Population:18.80million---GDP per capita:7481 us dollar
2008:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:163.14billion us dollar---Population:19.20million---GDP per capita:8497 us dollar
2009:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:189.24billion us dollar---Population:19.60million---GDP per capita:9655 us dollar
2010:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:[2010 Shanghai EXPO]
GDP:219.52billion us dollar---Population:20.00million---GDP per capita:10976 us dollar
2011:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:254.64billion us dollar---Population:20.40million---GDP per capita:12482 us dollar
2012:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:295.38billion us dollar---Population:20.80million---GDP per capita:14201 us dollar
2013:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:342.64billion us dollar---Population:21.20million---GDP per capita:16162 us dollar
2014:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:397.46billion us dollar---Population:21.60million---GDP per capita:18401 us dollar
2015:nominal increase rate:16.00% actual gdp increase rate:
GDP:461.05billion us dollar---Population:22.00million---GDP per capita:20957 us dollar

[Jose Luis]

i think it could happen in less than a 1000 years.

[Madman]

No. Well not in the 21st century i dont think. Shanghai has too much competition from Beijing and HK to outstrip Tokyo. I see it on a scale of like the German cities where there is no ultra-dominant city.

[Ekumenopolis]

It would be difficult, but nothing is impossible.

[skyscraper_1]

I think it will happen sometime around 2030-2060( if trends hold true). But if it beats Tokyo in economic importance between 2030-45 people will probably still think Tokyo over Shanghai

[samsonyuen]

Not in our lifetimes. Tokyo is too dominant in Japan, whereas as Madman said, China has too much competition amongst its cities to have one Tokyo-style cities.

[Azn_chi_boi]

Shanghai will eventually surpass tokyo. The time is unknown. I was going to say soon, but forgot about competition from Hong Kong.

[Sen]

Not in 20 years.

maybe it will after 30 years.

[sean storm]

No. Well not in the 21st century i dont think. Shanghai has too much competition from Beijing and HK to outstrip Tokyo. I see it on a scale of like the German cities where there is no ultra-dominant city.

:yes:

well, even though shanghai is billed as china's premiere commercial city, there are too many large cities to compete with, not just beijing and hong kong but also guangzhou, shenzhen, and chonqing.

[km-sh]

Chngjiang delta may become a super metro in the future

[km-sh]

http://www.sh.xinhua.org/tbbd/changsanjiao1/img/1.jpg

[Donkie]

I HAVE NO IDEA :)

[InitialD18]

personally i don't think hk and sing could compare to shanghai or tokyo in scale ...
hk and sing are quite a bit richer than shanghai ...
they are small specialized gateway cities ...
hk and sing just doesn't have the backing
like what tokyo and shanghai has ...
plus they are small ...
however there functions will always be very important in asia ...

however i do see shanghai to be the king of asia
along with tokyo one day ...
however for shanghai to truly surpass tokyo in every single aspects ... i doubt if its possible in 30 years ...
as tokyo won't stop moving ...
and i also see seoul rising up the latter also ...
however i do see them being seen equal in
global importance term in 30 years or less

[YangtzeSea]

What I can assert is that no city has greater potential than Shanghai in Asia Pacific. But it will cost a long time (30 years or even more) for Shanghai to surpass Tokyo.

[shibuya_suki]

^the greatest potential of shanghai is only for the large developing market,huge population, and economic,thats you cant find such this potetial in the entire world now...

but no democracy,dictatorship,corruption,economic system still not mature as well as western countries,quality of citizen,government administrative eficient..... those problem still exist in shanghai,dont take too optimistic,there are so much social and political problem beside the greatest econmic potential of the world...

[superchan7]

Time will tell how China handles these problems.

[bustero]

Sooner as Shanghai will not only increase in power and stature and wealth but the other end of the equation is that Tokyo and Japan will decline. Many estimates show that their population will go down by 25% by 2050 if present levels decline. And that is with the worlds longest lived people. So a big city with a lot of old people if they continue to stay there in a country which has a hard time tolerating migrants and integrating them will surely fade unless something dramatic (highly unlikely) happens in terms of demography.

[Q-TIP]

In short, I'd say it would surpass Tokyo in population, but take a longer time for it to dominate China, let alone Asia.

[tom042]

I'd guess that Shanghai will surpass Tokyo for population fairly soon, especially if China frees up internal migration--I'm sure there's quite a bit of pent up demand among rural migrants to move to wealthy cities, as km-sh points out, there are already millions of "unofficial" residents. Combined with Tokyo's soon-to-be declining population, I'd give about 20-35 years until Shanghai is larger in population.

Economically, I'd say things are less certain and it will take quite a bit longer for Shanghai's economy to be larger than Tokyo's. I'd say 45-65 years for that to happen.

[howelee]

although in infrastructure,Shanghai may reach the level of Tokyo shortly, it still has a long way in terms of software, for instance law, business environment, universtities, , welfare

[Nick]

Tokyo is very big and most important city and capital of Aisa's largest economy.It may remain the biggest city in the world for sometime yet.

As for importance.China will overtake Japan in the next 20 years.Shanghai will soon follow as Aisa's most important city I think.

[Sen]

although in infrastructure,Shanghai may reach the level of Tokyo shortly, it still has a long way in terms of software, for instance law, business environment, universtities, , welfare

I agree. A great city is not only about infrastrcture. i think Shanghai is also rapidly improving in those areas, but there's much to be done.

[InitialD18]

don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
the pair is in other words quite complementary ...

In the short term I do think this to be quite true ... as i see china with multiple centres in the future ...

[unimetro]

don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
the pair is in other words quite complementary ...

In the short term I do think this to be quite true ... as i see china with multiple centres in the future ...

I agree. shanghai won't surpass tokyo at least in the first half of 21th centry.

Also when talk about shanghai,don't put beijing aside which eventually will come to be one of the greatest city like London, Paris,etc.

[ncik]

dont forget Tokyo is CLEAN :D

[rocky]

Depends of china policy. if they try to develop many cities at the same time or if they try to centralise the power in Shangai

[Tom_Green]

I hope Shanghai will become like Tokyo.
When i think about a city with over 50.000.000 people in the future i can only imagine Shanghai. Shanghai is together with Dubai the city with the biggest construction boom. I hope it will go on and i hope the people in Shanghai will not become like the people in Shenzhen.

Shanghai will surpass Tokyo in importance in 30 years but i don`t know if Shanghai will be ever the better city to life. I can`t even imagine that the people in Shanghai will be ever richer than the people in Tokyo.

[fttd]

shanghai is a amazing booming city

don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
the pair is in other words quite complementary ...

In the short term I do think this to be quite true ... as i see china with multiple centres in the future ...

[Accura4Matalan]

If China maintains its current rate of growth for another decade then I'd say yes.

[km-sh]

don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
the pair is in other words quite complementary ...

In the short term I do think this to be quite true ... as i see china with multiple centres in the future ...
the MAIN Centers of China
North China:Beijing +Tianjin
SouthEastern China: the Yangtse Rive delta
Southern China:the Pearl River delta
Southwestern China:Chongqing+Chengdu
Northwestern China:Xi'an
Central China:Wuhan
Northeastern China:Shengyang+Dalian

[Zarkon]

No, I don't think..

[Victoria]

Perhaps, you never know. :)

[London™]

Not in the next 50 years, but it might in the second half of this century.