# What's the REAL population of Lagos? Can satellite images provide evidence?



## tablemtn (May 2, 2006)

Lagos is generally assumed to be the largest city in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the largest city on the entire continent after Cairo.

However, it was difficult to put anything close to a precise estimate on the exact population. Estimates ranged from 10 million to 16 million. 

Then, in 2006, the government of Nigeria carried out a census. And by their count, the population of the Lagos area was 7,937,932:

National and State Provisional Totals 2006 Census - PDF link

This was a very controversial result. Lagos State's own government rejected the numbers, and claimed that 16 million people resided in the metro area. It would also mean that the Lagos area had only gained about 2.7 million people since 1991, when a census put its population around 5.3 million - and not the 10 million or so previously claimed.

It would also mean that the Lagos region only accounted for about 5.3% of Nigeria's total population of 148 million, rather than over 10%. 

It also implied that Lagos was smaller than the Johannesburg-Pretoria metro area, and possibly Kinshasa.

The survey takers claim the census was accurate. The state government claims large areas were undercounted, or not counted at all. Who is right?

Can satellite images help reveal the answer?

Here is an overview of the entire Lagos region (all images from Google Earth):










The urbanization is fairly easy to see; there is a sharp boundary between the urban area and the surrounding countryside.

The urbanization looks very dense across the whole area. Here are some snapshots:










As you can see, there isn't much parkland, and the settlements are very close together.

This is from a part of the urban area closer to the boundary, as it transitions into the countryside:










The density is strikingly high, with little room for fields or farms 

This is a shot from a more central area, on Lagos Island:










Notice also that some areas are not really on the land at all - this settlement exists between the shoreline and a bridge that travels over some shallow water between an island and the mainland:










The Lagos State government complained that areas like these were the most prone to undercounting, because they tend to exist "off the map" in the first place.

Areas that might be emptier in other cities tend to be occupied in Lagos - notice how a road interchange also serves as a massive bus, market, and vehicle depot:










Are these scenes from a metro area of only 7.9 million people?

It's possible... but... I have my doubts.


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## brisavoine (Mar 19, 2006)

The 1991 census was completely flawed, so it cannot serve as a basis. Most likely Lagos did not have 5.3 million people in 1991 (the local authorities inflated the figures). The 2006 census is the most accurate census ever carried out in Nigeria, it was certified by forein demographers, so like it or not, Lagos has only 7.9 million people (as of 2006), and the stupid claims by local authorities are just another attempt to inflate their numbers because the Lagos State would like to have a bigger weight in Nigeria.


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## tablemtn (May 2, 2006)

> . The 2006 census is the most accurate census ever carried out in Nigeria, it was certified by forein demographers


Well, all those claims are disputed - and not just by the Lagos State government.

What's clear is that the satellite images show a large expanse of dense human habitation across a large area - including areas in the water itself. 

Was all of that counted? That's up for dispute.


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## foadi (Feb 15, 2006)

seems like it would be relatively simple task to prove if the recent census is accurate. you pointed out disputed neighborhoods. so just go to those neighborhoods and do a count and see how it compares to official census.


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## bayviews (Mar 3, 2006)

brisavoine said:


> The 1991 census was completely flawed, so it cannot serve as a basis. Most likely Lagos did not have 5.3 million people in 1991 (the local authorities inflated the figures). The 2006 census is the most accurate census ever carried out in Nigeria, it was certified by forein demographers, so like it or not, Lagos has only 7.9 million people (as of 2006), and the stupid claims by local authorities are just another attempt to inflate their numbers because the Lagos State would like to have a bigger weight in Nigeria.


Its not surprising that Lagos's growth has slowed down since the capital was moved to Abuja. Still, doesn't the Lagos urban agglomeration (as opposed to the official city area) have about 10.9million?


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## aaabbbccc (Mar 8, 2009)

abuja is so much nicer and cleaner than lagos 
in terms of population so many countries use different stats so what the real population of some of these cities and countries in the world ?
casablanca by the way city is 2 million 
casablanca and all surrounding suburbs metro region is 4.5 million


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## brisavoine (Mar 19, 2006)

bayviews said:


> Its not surprising that Lagos's growth has slowed down since the capital was moved to Abuja. Still, doesn't the Lagos urban agglomeration (as opposed to the official city area) have about 10.9million?


There is no city area. Lagos City was disbanded in 1976, and its territory divided into several Local Government Areas (LGAs). These LGAs were merged with some suburban LGAs and also with some more distant rural LGAs to create Lagos State. Lagos State is much larger than the former Lagos City, and it is also larger than the urban agglomeration of Lagos. Lagos State is made up of 20 LGAs, and the Nigerian statistical office considers that 16 of these 20 LGAs make up the Lagos urban agglomeration. These 16 LGAs cover exactly 999.6 km² and had 7,937,932 inhabitants at the 2006 census. Lagos State, which is much larger than the Lagos urban agglomeration, covers 3,475 km² and had 9,013,534 inhabitants at the 2006 census.


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## crawford (Dec 9, 2003)

The problem with Nigeria is the Christian/Muslim divide. 

The Census-takers have misrepresented the results, depending on whether it helps or hurts the overall count of Christians or Muslims.

I heard this from some Nigerians here in New York. Has anyone else heard this?


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## Dinivan (Apr 9, 2007)

At least there are streets, but anyway, when the city starts getting developed, given the size, it's probably going to become the worst nightmare of an urban planner


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## Tbite (Feb 4, 2006)

Metro Lagos is much larger than Cairo and has easily around 15+ Million.

But the Area that you might class as the city is less than Cairo.


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## sebvill (Apr 13, 2005)

From the images, the city looks like a hard place to make a census. It looks chaotic.


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## brisavoine (Mar 19, 2006)

crawford said:


> The problem with Nigeria is the Christian/Muslim divide.
> 
> The Census-takers have misrepresented the results, depending on whether it helps or hurts the overall count of Christians or Muslims.
> 
> I heard this from some Nigerians here in New York. Has anyone else heard this?


Conspiration theories. It's just like people who believe it is the CIA who flew planes into the WTC.

All foreign experts agree that the results of the 2006 Nigerian census are accurate. Whether some Nigerians wish to believe in conspiration theories is their problem.


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## 187cc (Jun 9, 2009)

don't know how accurate the figures are but my mate from Lagos says most people there put the population at around 15 million for the entire metro area.


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