# China may be a developed country to 2023



## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

*China may be a developed country in 2023*

Year PPP PPP per capita Population
2004 $7.75 trillion $5962 1.3 billion
2005 $8.37 trillion
2006 $9.04 trillion
2007 $9.76 trillion
2008 $10.54 trillion
2009 $11.38 trillion
2010 $12.30 trillion $9111 1.35 billion
2011 $13.16 trillion
2012 $14.08 trillion
2013 $15.07 trillion
2014 $16.12 trillion
2015 $17.25 trillion $12591 1.38 billion
2016 $18.46 trillion
2017 $19.45 trillion
2018 $21.13 trillion
2019 $22.61 trillion
2020 $24.19 trillion $17279 1.40 billion
2021 $25.89 trillion
2022 $27.70 trillion
2023 $29.64 trillion $21171  1.40 billion
2024 $31.71 trillion 
2025 $33.93 trillion
2026 $35.97 trillion
2027 $38.13 trillion
2028 $40.42 trillion $29079 1.39 billion
2029 $42.84 trillion 
2030 $45.41 trillion $32669 1.39 billion

2005-2010,the growth rate will be 8%
2011-2025,it will be 7%,after that we suppose it 6%.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

China's ppp will surpass USA from 2010 to 2015 to be the biggest economy in the world!


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## defi (Jul 30, 2004)

The scientific quality of your forecast is rather dull, my friend,


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## tkr (Apr 3, 2005)

Earth will be destroyed by then. Natural resources gone. It will be unsustaintable. The population will descrease 99.9%. Man will relive a long and terrible stone age.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

defi said:


> The scientific quality of your forecast is rather dull, my friend,


i think this prediction is probably exact.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

shosho said:


> Earth will be destroyed by then. Natural resources gone. It will be unsustaintable. The population will descrease 99.9%. Man will relive a long and terrible stone age.


well,you could prepare for it right now,that will be very fast. :hahaha:


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## pottebaum (Sep 11, 2004)

tiger said:


> China's ppp will surpass USA from 2010 to 2015 to be the biggest economy in the world!


But isn't that assuming that the United States economy doesn't grow _at all_ until that point?


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

pottebaum said:


> But isn't that assuming that the United States economy doesn't grow _at all_ until that point?



if you think US's ppp could be over $17.25 billion in 2015.


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## pottebaum (Sep 11, 2004)

Well, if the US keeps 3.9% growth rate until 2015, yeah, it's PPP will be over $17.25. 
It's dumb to try and predict the future, though---there are a million things that could happen.


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## DarkFenX (Jan 8, 2005)

Nice to hear China can finally support its population better


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

pottebaum said:


> Well, if the US keeps 3.9% growth rate until 2015, yeah, it's PPP will be over $17.25.
> It's dumb to try and predict the future, though---there are a million things that could happen.


3.9%?that will be very difficult for US :bleh:


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## pottebaum (Sep 11, 2004)

I don't think so [it grew at about 4.5% last year if I remember correctly]--but who knows. I'm just making meaningless projections, like you.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

pottebaum said:


> I don't think so [it grew at about 4.5% last year if I remember correctly]--but who knows. I'm just making meaningless projections, like you.


on verra. :cheers:


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## Effer (Jun 9, 2005)

China's econmy will pass the US by 2031.


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## AngloStyle2 (May 7, 2005)

The Chinese're drunk on the bubble now. But the Chinese have been poor all this while, so we should sympathize with their delight.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

AngloStyle2 said:


> The Chinese're drunk on the bubble now. But the Chinese have been poor all this while, so we should sympathize with their delight.


lol,chinese have become poor for just 100 years,but been relatively rich for 5000 years.

well,chinese will finish this short poor time in 20 years.

i think american should be happy for china's rising,in several years,there will be a basket of chinese cities playing with you in city vs city forum,that will be exciting,no?


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## AngloStyle2 (May 7, 2005)

tiger said:


> lol,chinese have become poor for just 100 years,but been relatively rich for 5000 years.
> 
> well,chinese will finish this short poor time in 20 years.
> 
> i think american should be happy for china's rising,in several years,there will be a basket of chinese cities playing with you in city vs city forum,that will be exciting,no?


Chinese threads are exciting even now.


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## ejd03 (Oct 23, 2003)

tiger said:


> if you think US's ppp could be over $17.25 billion in 2015.


um.. man look at the market exchange rate.. can chine surpass over 5000$ by 2025??


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

ejd03 said:


> um.. man look at the market exchange rate.. can chine surpass over 5000$ by 2025??


lol,ignorant boy,have you studied any economic knowledge?

GDP will coincide with PPP for developping countries in a long term[maybe 20-30 years],so not necessary for us to look at the exchange rate,don't you know RMB is "a little" underestimed? :sleepy:


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

No need to predict. Just to show the result in 2023.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

well,i can't find any reason that can spur China to open war against any country in the world,but apparently,US would like to. :sleepy:


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Any war between the US and China will be initiated by the US. The US has military bases choking all of China's borders. The US is actively trying to divide China's territories, Taiwan and Tibet, while China does not interfere with any of the domestic concerns of the US. The US media and government regularly creates and devises false stories to inflamme anti-China hysteria amongst the ignorant American masses, examples include the Wen Ho Lee scandal, the Spy Plane incident (when the US was invading Chinese airspace), the current trade wars, Hollywood's long history of glamourizing the brutal Tibetan feudal theocracy and slave system headed by the Dalai Lama, etc. etc. 

Chinese on the other hand are suspicious of the US government, but it is healthily balanced by efforts to learn English, enjoying American movies and learning about American society, large numbers of foreign exchange students going to the US and also a great desire to do business with the US. To summarize, most Chinese have a far more accurate understanding of the reality of American society and the United States than do Americans. Most images of China in the minds of most Americans remain extremely stereotypical, racist, simplistic, negative and unrealistic.


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## Steff (Jan 5, 2005)

Jampacked SpecialExp -No I am white anglo-saxon, dont get me wrong theres nothing I'd like more then closer co-operation between our cousins downunder and in North America. I would even go as far to say I would support some sort of Federal Anglosphere.


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Steff said:


> Jampacked SpecialExp -No I am white anglo-saxon, dont get me wrong theres nothing I'd like more then closer co-operation between our cousins downunder and in North America. I would even go as far to say I would support some sort of Federal Anglosphere.



How does the fact that in twenty years, Latinos will comprise 30% of more of the US population figure in your plans for an anglosphere? 

Anglo Saxons are actually a minority in US society today.


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## Steff (Jan 5, 2005)

Well being realistic you cant count race as a factor anymore when refering to anglo-saxon nations, rather it is a misused term applied to all english speaking nations which share a common cultural identity. The USA is totally multi-cultural but they are all americans bound by one language. I myself am not 100% english which are a mongrel race anyway. Nevertheless people of all ethnic backrounds can still feel a fraternity within the english speaking world and it is possible to build upon this for even closer relationship between these nations. Im not an advocate of such an ideal but its a nice thought....


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Just because all ethnic groups in the US are American, doesn't mean that they will feel a close fraternity with other English speaking countries. I am Chinese American, and I dislike Britain, and really don't give two cents about Canada or Australia. I feel much closer to China than I do to New Zealand. I think the same can be said about Mexican Americans, the vast majority of whom would never identify with an Australian over one of their own, a Mexican from Mexico. The same can be said about Blacks, who would probably sympathize more with Black Zimbabweans taking back their rightful land rather than with the oppressive English speaking Anglo Saxon farmers that are being kicked out. 

The whole notion of an Anglo Saxon sphere is unrealistic in any terms, considering how small of a proportion of the general population of the US is actually Anglo Saxon. Personally, considering the vast amount of racial institutionalization that seems to be a predominant feature of all Anglo Saxon societies, I have more fear than hope for the foreign policies of a united front based on the Anglo Saxon heritage.


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## Steff (Jan 5, 2005)

O well your one person of a nation of 390 million people, im certain there are people that have the same opinion or opposite. How come you dislike the UK out of interest?


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## Jampacked SpecialExp (May 23, 2005)

The country which made China weaken at the start is the UK. They have a grudge against it, the opium war.


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## VansTripp (Sep 29, 2004)

I doubt that China will be largest economy on nation but list isn't real in future. I thinks that economy in China will burst soon.


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Blink182 said:


> I doubt that China will be largest economy on nation but list isn't real in future. I thinks that economy in China will burst soon.


I just got back from China last week. There are many strong factors which are the cause of China's economic growth, and although certainly there are areas where speculation has gone awry, eg. Shanghai property market, the factors underlying China's growth are very real and based on very grounded forces. The talk of China bubble bursting is very premature and ill informed. China is simply catching up to its vast potential finally. I think China has a lot more room to grow and will continue to grow for the forseeable future.


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## Steff (Jan 5, 2005)

O that. I supposed it seemed like a good idea at the time.


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Steff said:


> O well your one person of a nation of 390 million people, im certain there are people that have the same opinion or opposite. How come you dislike the UK out of interest?


The UK is an arrogant imperialistic nation. It is the cause of manyconflicts and misery that continues to plague the world today, ex. Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Pakistan-India split, the division of the Arab world, etc. 

The UK likes to view itself as an honorable nation draped in the flags of freedom and justice, but have behaved quite the opposite all throughout its history. To protect its "right" to drug millions of Chinese, it began the Opium War and seized Chinese territory while robbing Chinese coffers of its wealth with the indemnities. The colonial history of the UK is a constant episode of manipulation, deception and racism that has divided peoples and have led to intractable conflicts that have not even been resolved up to this day. When the British left HK, they tried their best to stir up trouble before China re-asserted its rule. Despite all talk of democracy, Hong Kong never saw one day of democracy throughout its 150 years of British rule, every British governor was appointed directly from London and every single one of them was an old rotting White fart who was worlds away from his HK Chinese subjects. Again, British hypocrisy is never ending. Today, it is America's junior imperialist member, occupying the nation of Iraq against their will and inflicting more humiliation against the Arabs like the Sykes Picot agreement of 1917 and the creation of Israel in colonial Palestine was not enough. 

Yeah, UK is not my favorite country.


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## Steff (Jan 5, 2005)

Yea I mean thats all true of course but who is worse out of the US and UK?


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Historically, the Uk has been worse and more obviously hypocritical than the US. At certain times, the US has actually been guided by greater moral purposes, though, admittedly those times are rare. Unfortunately, it seems like the US has begun to gone down the road of the UK, especially with the Bush administration in control.


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## ejd03 (Oct 23, 2003)

tiger said:


> lol,ignorant boy,have you studied any economic knowledge?
> 
> GDP will coincide with PPP for developping countries in a long term[maybe 20-30 years],so not necessary for us to look at the exchange rate,don't you know RMB is "a little" underestimed? :sleepy:


yes but you are saying that Market exchange rate is just useless.. and it's just number busines.. but it's not.. Actually if currency is high, the market exhchange rate of GDP is also high.. but.. you have to understand that "rich nations also have high currency rate" which hell rich countries have low currency?? can you name of it?? and which "poor" countries have high currency rate.. think about it

GDP will coincide with PPP for developping countries in a long term[maybe 20-30 years],so not necessary for us to look at the exchange rate <--- this statement shows that China cannot be a developed nation after 30 years.. until they focus on Market exhchange rate for their economic power..


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## OtAkAw (Aug 5, 2004)

carry_a_torch said:


> 2002GDP:1.24trillion-----Population:1.284billion-----GDP per capita:966
> 2002 Nominal growth rate:14%
> 2003GDP:1.41trillion-----Population:1.292billion-----GDP per capita:1091
> 2003Nominal growth rate:15%
> ...


These things are unreliable, inaccurate and nothing but mere prophecies/fortune cookies of the future and are therefore should be ignored.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

ejd03 said:


> yes but you are saying that Market exchange rate is just useless.. and it's just number busines.. but it's not.. Actually if currency is high, the market exhchange rate of GDP is also high.. but.. you have to understand that "rich nations also have high currency rate" which hell rich countries have low currency?? can you name of it?? and which "poor" countries have high currency rate.. think about it
> 
> GDP will coincide with PPP for developping countries in a long term[maybe 20-30 years],so not necessary for us to look at the exchange rate <--- this statement shows that China cannot be a developed nation after 30 years.. until they focus on Market exhchange rate for their economic power..


it's true that rich countries have high currency exchange rate,that's why US and EU always try to force china to increase exchange rate,they think the low level of RMB is unfair for them.


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## V80 (May 3, 2005)

those weak and small nations really don't want to see china becomes richer...

they couldn't even match the past to china for just one day, they're too weak and poor, have nothing in the past...

they just stand a little richer for tens of years, when they face to china, they have inferiority complex, what can they do when china becomes richer and richer?

god bless those weak and small nations...


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## _UberGerard_ (Dec 23, 2004)

carry_a_torch said:


> yes,look at waht the USA doing.
> instigating taiwan to buy weaponsfrom USA,and prevent the european Countries selling weapons to China.
> I hate USA.


i agree with you


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## VansTripp (Sep 29, 2004)

China is alright but I hate UK. :runaway:


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## Housing Critic3 (Jun 13, 2005)

tiger said:


> it's true that rich countries have high currency exchange rate,that's why US and EU always try to force china to increase exchange rate,they think the low level of RMB is unfair for them.


I wonder why China can't still revalue their currency, can't shift to the floating exchange rate system and keep the USD pegged system. I think because products made in China won't sell if they're not cheap.


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## carry_a_torch (Apr 30, 2005)

If 3000 usd in USA=3000 yuan in China


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## Sen (Nov 13, 2004)

Housing Critic3 said:


> I wonder why China can't still revalue their currency, can't shift to the floating exchange rate system and keep the USD pegged system. I think because products made in China won't sell if they're not cheap.



actually they will be cheaper..because all the imported materials will be cheaper if Chinese currency is strong..oil..steel..etc...


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## carry_a_torch (Apr 30, 2005)




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## V80 (May 3, 2005)

Blink182 said:


> China is alright but I hate UK. :runaway:




it should be the UK...


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## Texan#1 (Nov 20, 2002)

As an American (of El Salvadorean born parents) I would rather have U.S. businesses invest in Latin American countries so that they won't have to come here illegally than in China. But that's just my opinion and I do see China continuing on with its' rapid growth. oh and I love the U.K., Australia, and Canada (they're our siblings and mom lol)


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

surpassing United States in 2015[just in ten years],and 8 years after that China will be a developed country. 

Year PPP PPP per capita Population
2004 $7.75 trillion $5962 1.3 billion
2005 $8.37 trillion
2006 $9.04 trillion
2007 $9.76 trillion
2008 $10.54 trillion
2009 $11.38 trillion
2010 $12.30 trillion $9111 1.35 billion
2011 $13.16 trillion
2012 $14.08 trillion
2013 $15.07 trillion
2014 $16.12 trillion
2015 $17.25 trillion $12591 1.38 billion
2016 $18.46 trillion
2017 $19.45 trillion
2018 $21.13 trillion
2019 $22.61 trillion
2020 $24.19 trillion $17279 1.40 billion
2021 $25.89 trillion
2022 $27.70 trillion
2023 $29.64 trillion $21171 1.40 billion
2024 $31.71 trillion 
2025 $33.93 trillion
2026 $35.97 trillion
2027 $38.13 trillion
2028 $40.42 trillion $29079 1.39 billion
2029 $42.84 trillion 
2030 $45.41 trillion $32669 1.39 billion

2005-2010,the growth rate will be 8%
2011-2025,it will be 7%,after that we suppose it 6%.


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

too optimistic


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## The Mad Hatter!! (Oct 27, 2004)

i love china and all there skyscrapers,but as they say whatever goes up must come down so at one point china is going to slow down.


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## Jose Luis (Jun 15, 2004)

The Mad Hatter!! said:


> i love china and all there skyscrapers,but as they say whatever goes up must come down so at one point china is going to slow down.


Exactly, i give it 10 years to continue booming, no more.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Jose Luis said:


> Exactly, i give it 10 years to continue booming, no more.


surpassing United States in 2015[just in ten years],and 8 years after that China will be a developed country.


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Jose Luis said:


> Exactly, i give it 10 years to continue booming, no more.



aren't you the economist.....

:stupid: :|

smell the RED FEAR, peeps.

china will one day become the largest economic powerhouse on the planet, but it will take many years. 

as for latin america, it can only dream of capturing a fraction of FDI that china has accumulated over the years. it will be difficult for any region, let alone country, to take over china's role as manufacturer/producer of the world.


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

fk310 said:


> Any war between the US and China will be initiated by the US. The US has military bases choking all of China's borders. The US is actively trying to divide China's territories, Taiwan and Tibet, while China does not interfere with any of the domestic concerns of the US. The US media and government regularly creates and devises false stories to inflamme anti-China hysteria amongst the ignorant American masses, examples include the Wen Ho Lee scandal, the Spy Plane incident (when the US was invading Chinese airspace), the current trade wars, Hollywood's long history of glamourizing the brutal Tibetan feudal theocracy and slave system headed by the Dalai Lama, etc. etc.
> 
> Chinese on the other hand are suspicious of the US government, but it is healthily balanced by efforts to learn English, enjoying American movies and learning about American society, large numbers of foreign exchange students going to the US and also a great desire to do business with the US. To summarize, most Chinese have a far more accurate understanding of the reality of American society and the United States than do Americans. Most images of China in the minds of most Americans remain extremely stereotypical, racist, simplistic, negative and unrealistic.


:yes:

americans are so fucking ignorant of foreign matters - esp. such a large and mysterious power like china - it's painful to call myself an american sometimes.

but i think you are slightly exaggerating the role of the US here in fostering anti-china hysteria. this isn't the cold war.

while the US certainly has traces of anti-china agenda in its foreign policy, it is quite an obvious fact that it will not start a war with China. in fact, NO COUNTRY on earth would dare begin a war with China. why start something that will produce no victories, only mutual losers, in the end? China isnt iraq. nor is it north korea. China's a nuclear power, with the world's largest military manpower and is already an economic superpower of rapidly growing proportions. any country that wishes to severe diplomatic (ie ECONOMIC) relations with China and endanger global security is asking for a quick demise, period.

re: taiwan/tibet - there won't be any world wars fought over these two little 'territories'. again: simply not worth it. the US rhetoric may appear to indicate this but as we all know the american government has a propensity for bullshitting, as with most governments of the world, incl. the CCP.


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

fk310 said:


> The UK is an arrogant imperialistic nation. It is the cause of manyconflicts and misery that continues to plague the world today, ex. Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Pakistan-India split, the division of the Arab world, etc.
> 
> The UK likes to view itself as an honorable nation draped in the flags of freedom and justice, but have behaved quite the opposite all throughout its history. To protect its "right" to drug millions of Chinese, it began the Opium War and seized Chinese territory while robbing Chinese coffers of its wealth with the indemnities. The colonial history of the UK is a constant episode of manipulation, deception and racism that has divided peoples and have led to intractable conflicts that have not even been resolved up to this day. When the British left HK, they tried their best to stir up trouble before China re-asserted its rule. Despite all talk of democracy, Hong Kong never saw one day of democracy throughout its 150 years of British rule, every British governor was appointed directly from London and every single one of them was an old rotting White fart who was worlds away from his HK Chinese subjects. Again, British hypocrisy is never ending. Today, it is America's junior imperialist member, occupying the nation of Iraq against their will and inflicting more humiliation against the Arabs like the Sykes Picot agreement of 1917 and the creation of Israel in colonial Palestine was not enough.
> 
> Yeah, UK is not my favorite country.



:applause:

bravo bravo.

the UK has hypocrisy slapped over its forehead. 

and hey, let's not forget africa. perhaps the greatest shame of western imperialism.


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## z0rg (Jan 17, 2003)

Imagine how many supertall skyscrapers will be built in China by 2010, 2020 and 2030 if those forecasts are right...


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## Steff (Jan 5, 2005)

To become the worlds foremost power you must be as ruthless and as uncompassionate as the British were and still are. The Americans are the British incarnate except they are even more ruthless because capatlism is so entrenched within their culture.


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## Jai (Jan 5, 2003)

Jampacked SpecialExp said:


> I think China had better not open war against the US. Because the US, the UK, Australia and Canada excluding Quebec are Anglosaxon countries which shared the same blood.


Well then, 'rahowa', brother. 

:|


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## Housing Critic3 (Jun 13, 2005)

Listening to conversation among the Chinese, as I thought their values don't suit American. China's antisecession law is just a good example not to suit American values. The EU which used to be positive toward removal of the embargo on weapons had bad feeling toward China's law and didn't remove it after all.


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

sean storm said:


> :yes:
> 
> americans are so fucking ignorant of foreign matters - esp. such a large and mysterious power like china - it's painful to call myself an american sometimes.
> 
> ...



I was just saying that if a war started out between the US and China, it would likely have been instigated by the US. However, as for the probability of such a war, I think it is extremely low. Neither the US nor China wants to get into war with each other. In fact, it would be disastrous for both countries. However, the fact remains that it is the US who is in China's backyard and interfering with Chinese affairs rather than the other way around. 

Hopefully, the US will learn to adjust to a rising China and instead of antagonism, both countries can learn to gain benefits from their growing economic relationship while maintaining mutual respect.


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## odegaard (Jul 27, 2004)

Steff said:


> To become the worlds foremost power you must be as ruthless and as uncompassionate as the British were and still are. The Americans are the British incarnate except they are even more ruthless because capatlism is so entrenched within their culture.


Someone once told me that the reason why the sun never sets on the British empire is because GOD never trusted to turn his back toward the English. :cheers: 

But in some ways the Americans are more devious. The British attempted to control the world by controlling the seas. America on the other hand manipulates the financial markets. We fund the IMF so they can give loans to 3rd world nations knowing they can never repay except with a *damage clause* where they must forfeit their natural resources. Another difference is that the British fought wars for tea but Americans fight for oil.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> I seem to recall hitler shaking hands with the british prime minister Atlee, I seem to recall Saddam hussein shaking hands with donald rumsfeld, i seem to recall stalin sigining a secret treaty with hitler. If your so naive that u think a simple hand shake is truth in this world may god look after u. So my good sir, you are the one who doesn´t know what you´re talking about.
> 
> 
> Also, i would like to point out that in that article showing china´s development, the income of a person in shangai, onwe of china´s wealthiest cities, is $2,010. Which is less than the income in the US´s poorest state.


baby,if shanghai's GDP per capita is $2010,that would mean the population of shanghai were 44.57 million!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

furthermore,shanghai's GDP per capita is not the highest in china.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

shanghai's ppp per capita is about $26500,that's why shanghai looks like a "first-world" city.   surely it's not the highest in China.


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## defi (Jul 30, 2004)

Did you took into consideration that if the Chinese gov. decides to revalue the chinese currency that your ppp figures might suddenly look quite different?


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

defi said:


> Did you took into consideration that if the Chinese gov. decides to revalue the chinese currency that your ppp figures might suddenly look quite different?


chinese government revalues or not the RMB won't have any affect on PPP,it would just increase the GDP.

PPP is the REAL living standard or purchasing power,without any direct connection to exchange rate.


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## kamloon (Aug 8, 2004)

actually i really can't feel that shanghai or beijing or guangzhou is in the first world standard that their ppp is close to hong kong


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

kamloon said:


> actually i really can't feel that shanghai or beijing or guangzhou is in the first world standard that their ppp is close to hong kong


yea,you can go to shenzhen to go shopping.hong kong is a perfect city where we can earn a lot and buy cheaply :yes:


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

kamloon said:


> actually i really can't feel that shanghai or beijing or guangzhou is in the first world standard that their ppp is close to hong kong


hong kong's PPP per capita surpassed $30000 last year,i guess.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Beijing's PPP per capita was $17037 last year,and $22916 for Guangzhou.


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## carry_a_torch (Apr 30, 2005)

how do you calculate these ppp data,they are really wrong


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

carry_a_torch said:


> how do you calculate these ppp data,they are really wrong


which is your figure?  i calculated it according to the population publicated by the local gov recently.


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## Ionizer (Jun 8, 2005)

V80 said:


> Just east asia or CJk...
> enough...
> China, Korea,Japan...
> 1.5B pop
> ...



*Canada, Mexico, United States...*

*0.434B pop
14.5t(ppp) 2005...*


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## kamloon (Aug 8, 2004)

tiger said:


> yea,you can go to shenzhen to go shopping.hong kong is a perfect city where we can earn a lot and buy cheaply :yes:


well, some shenzhenese fds proudly told me that the living standard in shenzhen is better than hong kong now, it really made me laugh
i really felt unpleasent when i was in shenzhen, everywhere is dirty,
one thing surprises me that is the pedestrian bridges in the main street (深南大道＆華強路）are made by some cheap steel, it looks like something in the construction site.....but god....its CBD....besides that everthing in shenzhen seems in low quality, it may look modern and well from far far away, but sucks when u r in close , if shenzhen is that damn rich with ppp of 30000 that close to hk, well, they should hv a cbd that can match the Central of hk

another interesting thing is that almost everything u can buy in EVERYWHER are fake.....even in the CBD....not only shenzhen but also other big cities in china, i remember when i was in guangzhou, those locals were proudly introduce the Bejing Road and 天河城....they said its the highest standard shopping area in the city......well.....it's even cheaper than a estate shopping mall in hk's suburb

it's true that many hkers go to shop in mainland, but those are low quality men that are paid in low salary in hk, well actually most of them are new immigrant from mainland
those hkers in middle-level were living in hk for long time are seldom to go to mainland for shopping, indeed if u have money in hk, u would rather spend in hk since ther services and quality are much much better

at last, maybe u hv to use $1000 to live in shenzhen but $3000 in hk, but tell u the quality in hk must be much much higer, hkers don't wear fake brands, and the quality of most things u eat and drink in hk are controlled by government strictly, the street infrastructure is also better than shenzhen by a mile even shenzhen is a city of only 20 years old, and don't need me to explain, hk is cleaner and safer


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

kamloon said:


> well, some shenzhenese fds proudly told me that the living standard in shenzhen is better than hong kong now, it really made me laugh
> i really felt unpleasent when i was in shenzhen, everywhere is dirty,
> one thing surprises me that is the pedestrian bridges in the main street (深南大道＆華強路）are made by some cheap steel, it looks like something in the construction site.....but god....its CBD....besides that everthing in shenzhen seems in low quality, it may look modern and well from far far away, but sucks when u r in close , if shenzhen is that damn rich with ppp of 30000 that close to hk, well, they should hv a cbd that can match the Central of hk
> 
> ...


actually,shenzhen has a better high tech industry than HK.the service sector is worse,just because shen is HK's satelite city and the living standard is really much lower.non sense to compare the two,i think people from shanghai will find the same feeling if they compare shanghai with suzhou.

HK should take care of shanghai which is booming now.


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## kamloon (Aug 8, 2004)

tiger said:


> actually,shenzhen has a better high tech industry than HK.the service sector is worse,just because shen is HK's satelite city and the living standard is really much lower.non sense to compare the two,HK should focus on shanghai which is booming now.


agree with u....shanghai is much more comparable
but if shenzhen hv the ppp of 30000.....i can't accept that....


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

Ok listen tiger, i got my figures from TIME, i dunno wut u did to get urs, but ur completley wrong, that estimate would put China on par with the five large european countries, italy spain france germany and UK, i higly doubt China is richer than they are, Note i said richer, not larger (economically).


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> Ok listen tiger, i got my figures from TIME, i dunno wut u did to get urs, but ur completley wrong, that estimate would put China on par with the five large european countries, italy spain france germany and UK, i higly doubt China is richer than they are, Note i said richer, not larger (economically).


how did you get this conclusion that China is richer than five large european countries? :sleepy:


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## Ozonizer (Jun 21, 2005)

Go NA!


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## skyscraper_1 (May 30, 2004)

I believe that Shanghai's GDP-MER per capita is $6,000 according to the figures i have looked at. Its makes sense to me if the PRP per capita is between 20,000 - 25,000. Of course the income is very unequalily distributed.


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

tiger said:


> how did you get this conclusion that China is richer than five large european countries? :sleepy:


I said that it is wut ur estimates say, wut i am saying is that there is no way that china is richer than the fiver large european economies.


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## I-275westcoastfl (Feb 15, 2005)

Ionizer said:


> *Canada, Mexico, United States...*
> *0.434B pop
> 14.5t(ppp) 2005...*


Agreed if us 3 nations united as one and formed the NA Union we'd be unstopable our economy would blast throught the roof. As for China theyre going to continue this trend and will have prosperous economy and most likely become the #1, but they will expierience more health problems with the growing pollution in the country will ruin the farm land they have and cause them to rely on foreign food like we do for oil. Also the cheap labor economy is only good for short term pretty soon people will wake up and see what they could they would ask for more fair wages, riots, and angry mobs would arise. There are many other things i could go on and on about but the point is that they will have a great economy for the next 10-15yrs then crash but not crash to like dead poor but the economy would cripple.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> I said that it is wut ur estimates say, wut i am saying is that there is no way that china is richer than the fiver large european economies.


*you are dreaming,China will surpass US in ten years.*


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## cicarra (May 29, 2004)

actually, shenzhen's gdp per capita was US$16430 in 2003. So assuming it grew by %10 over the past few years which is a very conservative number, it is about $20000 this year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

tiger said:


> *you are dreaming,China will surpass US in ten years.*


HAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA.

Ignorance is bold isnt it.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

cicarra said:


> actually, shenzhen's gdp per capita was US$16430 in 2003. So assuming it grew by %10 over the past few years which is a very conservative number, it is about $20000 this year.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen


all depend on which source of population you make use of.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> HAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA.
> 
> Ignorance is bold isnt it.


take a look at the 1st page,boy.


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## Ozonizer (Jun 21, 2005)

I-275westcoastfl said:


> Agreed if us 3 nations united as one and formed the NA Union we'd be unstopable our economy would blast throught the roof. As for China theyre going to continue this trend and will have prosperous economy and most likely become the #1, but they will expierience more health problems with the growing pollution in the country will ruin the farm land they have and cause them to rely on foreign food like we do for oil. Also the cheap labor economy is only good for short term pretty soon people will wake up and see what they could they would ask for more fair wages, riots, and angry mobs would arise. There are many other things i could go on and on about but the point is that they will have a great economy for the next 10-15yrs then crash but not crash to like dead poor but the economy would cripple.


That's right at same time that NA still have enough oil in Canada and natural gas in Mexico plus the technology of the US in the development of hydrogen cells, solar and other sources to make us independent from the rest of the world.

NA will be more balanced since will have a third of the population of China.


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## Housing Critic3 (Jun 13, 2005)

The more China grows, the more China needs oil. And when China thinks they can fight against the US, they would make war in the middle east.


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## skyscrapercity (Aug 31, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> I seem to recall hitler shaking hands with the british prime minister Atlee, I seem to recall Saddam hussein shaking hands with donald rumsfeld, i seem to recall stalin sigining a secret treaty with hitler. If your so naive that u think a simple hand shake is truth in this world may god look after u. So my good sir, you are the one who doesn´t know what you´re talking about.


I already know that You are the one who can take a superficial view of things.
Can't you see beyond shanking hands of two people in pictures? 

OK, it seems that you are extremely lacking the background knowledge to fiqure out what I am trying to say through those pictures .

Anyway, it is wise of you not to display your ignorance in such wise about two koreas . good luck!


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

tiger said:


> *you are dreaming,China will surpass US in ten years.*


Don't be so aggressive and optimistic.


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## aatbloke (Dec 29, 2004)

pottebaum said:


> But isn't that assuming that the United States economy doesn't grow _at all_ until that point?


China's economy has been growing at a massive pace - during the 1990's at more than 10% every year - and for years has been widely tipped to be the world's largest by 2050.


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## deli (Dec 12, 2004)

i think china is able to reach today's brazil's level in per-capita term "in ten years". I would be a very happy chinese if we can achieve that & hope the fortune can be distributed more evenly by then...


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## ChinaboyUSA (May 10, 2005)

^really, if so i think you should move to brazil.
and please think about how many population between china and brazil


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## ejd03 (Oct 23, 2003)

tiger said:


> it's true that rich countries have high currency exchange rate,that's why US and EU always try to force china to increase exchange rate,they think the low level of RMB is unfair for them.


yes but I don't think it's necessary to increase the currency though. I think they are afraid because China's PPP is much higher than Market exchange rate.. so in 2030, China may surpass U.S.A in terms of PPP gdp.. but.. um.. I don't know..

the world is more focused on exhchange rate.. cuz the international money is now U.S dollar.... basically, If chinese earn 3000$ in U.S dollar.. it's more valuable in China than that.. so it's like.. maybe 30000$??


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

ejd03 said:


> yes but I don't think it's necessary to increase the currency though. I think they are afraid because China's PPP is much higher than Market exchange rate.. so in 2030, China may surpass U.S.A in terms of PPP gdp.. but.. um.. I don't know..
> 
> the world is more focused on exhchange rate.. cuz the international money is now U.S dollar.... basically, If chinese earn 3000$ in U.S dollar.. it's more valuable in China than that.. so it's like.. maybe 30000$??


that's the problem.

for example,if $:RMB should be 4:1,when chinese gov. decides to revalue the RMB,it may increase to 3:1 due to speculation,that would very negatively affect chinese economy.

but it dosen't mean it's not necessary to revalue!!!


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## deli (Dec 12, 2004)

ChinaboyUSA said:


> ^really, if so i think you should move to brazil.
> and please think about how many population between china and brazil


population? please read my post again :sleepy:

can you please tell me why i should move to Brazil? i don't get it?! :weirdo: 
(or maybe by your logic, our president Hu Jingtao  should move to "Brazil" as well ...)


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

people.... whether china becomes fully developed by X number of years is frankly pointless to discuss. the fact is, China is the undisputed future superpower of the world. it is already an economic powerhouse that has direct influence on the global market, including the US market. anyone with half a brain knows this.

and to further emphasize the rise of China - check out the latest US press on China:










http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1074115,00.html

face it, folks.... we are entering China's century.


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## liat91 (Apr 11, 2005)

The mere population and economic growth in China will undoubtfully make it a formidable world power. Now as far is China dominating the world, I doubt it. The entire world's economy and social apparatus is set up in a Western fashion. So if China really want to be the big dogs they must come up with their own system of world social and economic function, no F'n way that is going to happen without a war. If China simply follows the established Western model than it will simply be a powerful partner in the world's economic order. Think about it, if the West was really afraid of China's rise to power they, along with the Russians and Latin America would simply make China irrellevant and if necessary, wipe China right off the Map because the allegiances are set.


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## V80 (May 3, 2005)

those weak and small nations really don't want to see china becomes richer...

they couldn't even match the past to china for just one day, they're too weak and poor, have nothing in the past...

they just stand a little richer for tens of years, when they face to china, they have inferiority complex, what can they do when china becomes richer and richer?

god bless those weak and small nations...


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## Housing Critic3 (Jun 13, 2005)

aatbloke said:


> China's economy has been growing at a massive pace - during the 1990's at more than 10% every year - and for years has been widely tipped to be the world's largest by 2050.


You seem not to think China would revalue their currency in the near future. Their MER is about 10% of the US but PPP is already about 70% of the US. If they revalued their currency their MER would be close to their PPP. But will the US permit China to get the biggest economic power? It means Pax Anglo-Americana's end. I think the US would make something before that.


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

Stupid people still don´t take into account what the United States will do when their hegemony is threatend. It is OFFICIAL government policy not to allow any country to pass the US economically. OFFICIAL government policy!!! I´d like to see wut would happen to the chinese economy if they grow so much that the US (which has a 100 billion dollar trade deficit with china) stops importing because the Chinese economy is closing in on the American one.


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

Mike19 said:


> Stupid people still don´t take into account what the United States will do when their hegemony is threatend. It is OFFICIAL government policy not to allow any country to pass the US economically. OFFICIAL government policy!!! I´d like to see wut would happen to the chinese economy if they grow so much that the US (which has a 100 billion dollar trade deficit with china) stops importing because the Chinese economy is closing in on the American one.


oyoyoyoyoy... :bash: :bash: :bash: :bash: :bash: :bash: :bash: :bash:


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

liat91 said:


> Think about it, if the West was really afraid of China's rise to power they, along with the Russians and Latin America would simply make China irrellevant and if necessary, wipe China right off the Map because the allegiances are set.



what a load of bullshit.

first of all, who said that a country must reinvent the wheel in order to be a superpower? in this day and age, all that matters is money. you obviously know nothing about the basics of economics. japan is an economic superpower and it has fully adopted to western standards while still distinguishing itself as a technological power. 

and if you think the west (latin america isn't the west, btw) wanted to "wipe China off the map", think again. that won't happen without a nuclear war, and China already has plenty of those to begin with. so while the west could technically decimate China, China can likewise obliterate much of NA or europe or russia. it's called murder-suicide.

:stupid:


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> Stupid people still don´t take into account what the United States will do when their hegemony is threatend. It is OFFICIAL government policy not to allow any country to pass the US economically. OFFICIAL government policy!!! I´d like to see wut would happen to the chinese economy if they grow so much that the US (which has a 100 billion dollar trade deficit with china) stops importing because the Chinese economy is closing in on the American one.


put down the crack pike, little one. 

the US isn't that simple, and neither is China. read the TIME magazine article. seems like a lot of people here could use some education.


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

sean storm said:


> put down the crack pike, little one.
> 
> the US isn't that simple, and neither is China. read the TIME magazine article. seems like a lot of people here could use some education.



yea, like you. In fact the world is quite simple. Everyone wants whats best for themselves. It is not good for the US to lose its power or any country for that matter, perhaps if u want i can find a book for u to read in order to further improve, or i should say, start your education.


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## Housing Critic3 (Jun 13, 2005)

sean storm said:


> what a load of bullshit.
> 
> first of all, who said that a country must reinvent the wheel in order to be a superpower? in this day and age, all that matters is money. you obviously know nothing about the basics of economics. japan is an economic superpower and it has fully adopted to western standards while still distinguishing itself as a technological power.
> 
> ...


China makes money by "made in china" now, but the reason is because the US and the other industrially developed nations' companies just give you wages to place their plants in China or they permit Chinese companies to use their patents. If your government revalued your currency, they might withdraw from China and move their plants to more cheap nations. Or when the US feels your country dangerous, they would make all their companies withdraw from your country and your companies couldn't use the US and his allies' patents. As for the energy problem, the more your country grows the more you needs oil or natural gas. While the US has 0.3 billion people if your country became a developed country, you would need 4 times as much oil or gas as the US does. The US shot Iraq's oil and they try to shoot Iran's oil the next. Anyway all middle eastern countries would be their puppet governments, then how would China gotten oil if China made trouble with the US?


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## skyscraper_1 (May 30, 2004)

I don't think the US government would never 'make' companies withdraw from China. Corporations have far to much influence in government to allow that to happen.


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> yea, like you. In fact the world is quite simple. Everyone wants whats best for themselves. It is not good for the US to lose its power or any country for that matter, perhaps if u want i can find a book for u to read in order to further improve, or i should say, start your education.


sounds like you are simply one of those goons who fantasizes about a nuclear war between china and the US.

:stupid:

of course you would think the world is "simple".... i mean, your brain couldn't handle the complexity of the real world, now could it?

the fact is, the US can't afford to antagonize China, and vice versa.


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Housing Critic3 said:


> China makes money by "made in china" now, but the reason is because the US and the other industrially developed nations' companies just give you wages to place their plants in China or they permit Chinese companies to use their patents. If your government revalued your currency, they might withdraw from China and move their plants to more cheap nations. Or when the US feels your country dangerous, they would make all their companies withdraw from your country and your companies couldn't use the US and his allies' patents. As for the energy problem, the more your country grows the more you needs oil or natural gas. While the US has 0.3 billion people if your country became a developed country, you would need 4 times as much oil or gas as the US does. The US shot Iraq's oil and they try to shoot Iran's oil the next. Anyway all middle eastern countries would be their puppet governments, then how would China gotten oil if China made trouble with the US?


my country? i'm an american native. :stupid: :|

what you and the masses of ignoramues fail to realize is the extent to which China's future and that of the US are linked. it isn't just making clothes, toys, microwaves, or shoes that binds the two countries together. China holds billions of dollars of US debt; its companies increasingly compete with US ones for vital resources like oil; its economy consumes more raw materials and products than any other nation in the world (and increasing at an alarming rate); and its geopolitical behavior will affect the outcome of issues of key importance to US policymakers, ie North Korea.


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## Housing Critic3 (Jun 13, 2005)

sean storm said:


> my country? i'm an american native. :stupid: :|
> 
> what you and the masses of ignoramues fail to realize is the extent to which China's future and that of the US are linked. it isn't just making clothes, toys, microwaves, or shoes that binds the two countries together. China holds billions of dollars of US debt; its companies increasingly compete with US ones for vital resources like oil; its economy consumes more raw materials and products than any other nation in the world (and increasing at an alarming rate); and its geopolitical behavior will affect the outcome of issues of key importance to US policymakers, ie North Korea.


Well you're a chinese american. China's USD holdings are pointless. The US government can borrow money in USD, print its paper money and pay money back in USD as long as it's a key currency. You don't bother the US government with its point at all.


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## deli (Dec 12, 2004)

my prediction (US - china - asia):

in 2010: US will lose its economic leverage over china if US can't successfully block current trend (by protectionism or oil stratergy). The reason? china's huge domestic market by 2010 (after Olympic & World Expo) . Trade war with china means huge lose of profit & market share in china. Chinese economy would be a lot less dependant on foreign market & export.

in 2015: US will lose its millitary leverage over China if US can't wage a regional war before that (by playing Japan or Taiwan card). Before 2015, US can fight with china and finally win in a regional war in EA region. After 2015, china is likely to at least bring a lose-lose to a war with US if they fight in EA. More importantly, china would have capability to paralyze/destroy US (the only millitary threat to china) not only theoretically but practically in 2015. That would be a huge difference psychologically for policy maker & fellow countrymen (in US, china, japan, korea, taiwan...). In another word, China is able to effectively protect herself & her core interest by then.

in 2020: US will lose its closest alliance & agent in asia -- Japan. By 2020, china's real term GDP would be similar to Japan's if thing goes right (GDP PPP would be a few times more), japan then have to embrace asia again & side with china in certain way, willingly or not. Containment policy against china by US & Japan will finally be discarded. Japan will do something like what S.K. is doing now...

after 2020, chinese economy slow down a little to restructure (india will catch up in terms of growth). Chinese gov. will have to face political reform seriously. with per-capita GDP of $3,000, china can push a painful reform without risking social stability & political turmoil as much as it may face today. Its own poeple will support it. By doing that, rest of the world would be more comfortable with a powerful but stable china as well.

(asia-wise) 2020 onwards, india's influence will rise drastically like today's china, while japan go down-wards (it may finally remilitarize, but imo it won't matter that much as most chinese/korea worried); 2 korea united; india-parkistan relation improved ... (with only taiwan issue remained, but less dangerous). South/East/S-E asia will be the center of the world. I think 2020 would be a magic year. If we can reach there peacefully, the whole world would be a lot better & safer after that.

even i don't believe in god, but let's pray...


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## PhotoSynthetizer (Jun 24, 2005)

so are you suggesting that we should nuke them before 2015 and India before 2025?  lol


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## deli (Dec 12, 2004)

PhotoSynthetizer said:


> so are you suggesting that we should nuke them before 2015 and India before 2025?  lol


actually, you should do that *50 years ago * in Korean war, when US was the only nuclear power. no? how about vietnam war..... PLEASE! any better reply?!!


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

U PPL ARE REALLY OVER ESTIMATING CHINA. Its growth has been spectacular but its due for a large correction. dont take my word for it, lets just wait and see. 

As for this so called sean storm. perhaps i would tak ur view of the "complexity" of the world more seriously if u had the "complexity" to vary ur smilies.


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## Lee (Jun 2, 2003)

And lets just remember that China's growth is due largely to Nixon's policies of opening up China to capitalism.


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Lee said:


> And lets just remember that China's growth is due largely to Nixon's policies of opening up China to capitalism.


:|

Nixon? talk about giving a man too much credit.

you're absolutely wrong. china's economic miracles in the past twenty years have nothing to do with Nixon but everything to do with the late Deng Xiaoping, who initiated drastic economic reforms throughout the country by opening up its economy to foreign trade.

why are all of you so damn ignorant of china? maybe i shoudn't be surprised. :|


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Mike19 said:


> U PPL ARE REALLY OVER ESTIMATING CHINA. Its growth has been spectacular but its due for a large correction. dont take my word for it, lets just wait and see.
> 
> As for this so called sean storm. perhaps i would tak ur view of the "complexity" of the world more seriously if u had the "complexity" to vary ur smilies.


silly turd... trust me, nobody's taking your words. 

i think i trust international sources and economic figures more than a clueless, sinophobic dweeb from the states.

:sleepy:

^ is that enough variation in emoticons for you, little one?


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## sean storm (Nov 18, 2004)

Housing Critic3 said:


> Well you're a chinese american. China's USD holdings are pointless. The US government can borrow money in USD, print its paper money and pay money back in USD as long as it's a key currency. You don't bother the US government with its point at all.


how the hell do you know i'm chinese american? you don't fucking know me. just because i support and applaud china's economic growth? :|

what's your point in even questioning my background in the first place? 

get real, jackass. :stupid:

oh, and yes... the US can just print more US dollars whenever i wants more money. yeah, nice logic there. you clearly have no understanding of the concept of DEBT.

furthermore, you along with the hordes of other imbeciles in this country think you have China's fate wrapped around your bigoted little fingers when the reality is that you really don't know jack shit about the situation. what's really demonstrated here with all these 'apocalyptic' visions of china's future can be coined in two simple words: RED FEAR.


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## HKT (May 17, 2003)

Mike19 said:


> Stupid people still don´t take into account what the United States will do when their hegemony is threatend. It is OFFICIAL government policy not to allow any country to pass the US economically. OFFICIAL government policy!!! I´d like to see wut would happen to the chinese economy if they grow so much that the US (which has a 100 billion dollar trade deficit with china) stops importing because the Chinese economy is closing in on the American one.


And why doesn't the US just stop the importing now? This has been happening for years. 

We all know it wouldn't be that simple, so do both governments. The American companies would lose their investments in China and the Chinese would lose their market in the US.


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## HKT (May 17, 2003)

Lee said:


> And lets just remember that China's growth is due largely to Nixon's policies of opening up China to capitalism.


China's economic boom didn't start off right after Nixon's visit to China in early 70s.


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## malek (Nov 16, 2004)

no no no and no.

it will take China another 50 years of growth at todays pace (good luck) to be considered an averagly developped country. Its the Chinese govt who says this.


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## loureed (Aug 10, 2003)

Housing Critic3 said:


> Whatever descendants of yellowfish say, after all in the US chinese americans are disposable labor for anglo-americans who provided the US rules and official language.


Asian-Americans are the wealthiest and most educated ethnic group per capita in the United States.

My dad hires "anglo-Americans" to work for him. It's been awhile since I've been seen by a white doctor.


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## kamloon (Aug 8, 2004)

kuniokun said:


> People in China live in dreamland You have capitalism since some years and dont know many economical rights. For example they dont know that in all countries over the world, every 5-10 years, is recession when the real grow rate is 1-2% and sometimes even under 0!!! Your calculations are sa funny. It will be very good for you if ppp for China in 2060 will be 15000-20000$.


you should find the economy growth record of japan and the four asian tigers
the assumption is based on those nations' experience in the last century


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

sean storm said:


> ...and furthermore, presumes to know a person's race/ethnicity based on their remarks on a fucking INTERNET forum..!



Thank god u don´t do that:




sean storm said:


> “maybe you're one of those delusional nationalists from formosa.....”
> 
> “sinophobic dweeb from the states.”


I dunno why u assumed i was from the states, or that i was a sinophobe. And i assure u i am near a sinophobe or hate my chinese american heritage. I think you should stop making assumptions about other ppl and not be a hypocrite by critisizing people for things that you also do.




sean storm said:


> i am amazed that there are those like housing critic3 and mike19 who have such an annihilistic view towards china ... it is typical behavior by those ignorant and fearful in the West to do nothing but point out the problems in China yet simultaneously failing to recognize the tremendous achievements made by the CCP. .


Gosh i didnt know i had not posted anything positive about china, i thought i did say the positive and negative things about the country. If only i had some proof that i did.



mike19 said:


> i´m by no means anti china. Im actually studying chinese, i love the culture.
> 
> Its growth has been spectacular but its due for a large correction. dont take my word for it, lets just wait and see.


Just because i think that growth cant be sustained doesnt mean im ignorant. And as u can see i do recognize some great things about china.




sean storm said:


> but based on your barrage of insults in your response to me, you're probably some self-hating ugly fucker with a rancid micropenis.


if i remember correctly, you were the first person to insult me. I dont recall insulting you before u insulted me. So i hope your assumptions about people that insult and its direct correlation to their physical state is wrong, for your sake.

You assume way too much. You assume im anti-china. You assume i havent said anything positiv about china. You assume china is the worlds next superpower



sean storm said:


> the fact is, China is the undisputed future superpower of the world.


im really not in the mood to argue with you about any of this because i don´t think your points are moot, but obviously u think that anyone´s points that are different than yours are. I have never said anything negative about china, the only thing i have said is that i dont think they would win in a war with the US, and that i dont think they will become rich as soon as other people assume, for various reasons. If anything i have been harsher on the US because i said i felt that the US would start a war with china or severly limit them economically. So don´t call me ignorant, or anti-china, or a sinophobe. Your the ignorant one who assumes that when someone disagree´s with you they must be a sinophobe, or anti china, or an american. If we could have a civilized convo, i would be glad to have on with you, but it seems you are one of those americans you hate to be associated with because they are ignorant and intolerant, perhaps u have internalized racism.

As for my rancid micropenis *****, my gf seems to enjoy it. Perhaps u should spend time with yours, u know let ur ***** and hand unite, they could be friends. If u happen to have have a gf, and she lets u have sex with her, perhaps you could ask her if she really enjoys it, because if i have a micropenis due to my insults, god i dont know if your gf feels yours. In any case, u really need to relieve some stress.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Mike19,你是一堆屎.


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## Lee (Jun 2, 2003)

tiger said:


> open view,especially free trade spirit...
> 
> US has deep and serious protectionism and nationalism.


The US is one of the least protectionist countries out there. China is much more protectionist.


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## pottebaum (Sep 11, 2004)

This thread's 11 pages long now, and there's been absolutely no constructive arguments--it's just making everyone bitter. Locky, locky?


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

Lee said:


> The US is one of the least protectionist countries out there. China is much more protectionist.


it is still one of the least protectionist countries, but ithink its getting more protectionist. We just have to look at the 2004 election and one of the big issues was outsorcing.


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## malec (Apr 17, 2005)

pottebaum said:


> This thread's 11 pages long now, and there's been absolutely no constructive arguments--it's just making everyone bitter. Locky, locky?


Nah, leave it open. If the thread is so pointless then I might aswell post to increase my post count


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## nzchinaREN (Jun 25, 2005)

mike 19 absolutely need to see a doctor immediately.


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## HirakataShi (Feb 8, 2004)

Optimistic assumptions about China automatically assume that China will effectively manage the integration of 800million rural Chinese farmers into the modern world economy. No other Asian nation was ever faced with the monumental task of educating and integrating so many people into secondary and tertiary industries. There is no guarantee that China will succeed. In 2023 for all we know, China may become like so many Latin American nations with a wealthy educated 30-40% of the population surrounded by poor less-educated masses who sell trinkets on the streets or engage in other informal labour for a living.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

HirakataShi said:


> Optimistic assumptions about China automatically assume that China will effectively manage the integration of 800million rural Chinese farmers into the modern world economy. No other Asian nation was ever faced with the monumental task of educating and integrating so many people into secondary and tertiary industries. There is no guarantee that China will succeed. In 2023 for all we know, China may become like so many Latin American nations with a wealthy educated 30-40% of the population surrounded by poor less-educated masses who sell trinkets on the streets or engage in other informal labour for a living.


it's probable that chinese peasants are more educated than you,boy.  actually,China's junior education's the most universal of all developing countries.



China to Make Nine-year Compulsory Education Available to All Children in Five Years 

*China has vowed to provide nine years of compulsory education for all children by 2008*, said a senior education official Saturday.

China has vowed to provide nine years of compulsory education for all children by 2008, said a senior education official Saturday. 

*Official statistics show that 90 percent  of children already receive nine years education*, but false reporting by some institutions cast doubt on the figures, said Wu Qidi, vice-minister of education, at the ongoing Chinese Women's Ninth National Congress in Beijing. 

Many female children are deprived of education especially in rural and poor areas because their parents think they should stay with the family, said Wu. 

In China, some female children have to leave school and move tocities for work after ending their primary school life. Despite women's rapid improvement in social status, women and children remained a weak group, Wu said. 

Education for female children was of extreme importance since they will become mothers and can affect generations of families, she said. 

China's national law stipulates that every child has the right to nine years of compulsory education, but the law has not been fully implemented, said Wu, calling on full legal protection for the children. 

It is reported that* the central government is scheduled to holda meeting on rural education within the year in order to safeguardrural children's compulsory education.*


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## Pluto (Dec 31, 2004)

Why can't we all just be happy that it finally seems that the world is getting its act together to move the human race forward both technologically and economically. China will provide a powerful and necessary engine to move the East forward and will act along side the EU and NA to provide the progress on this globe that has, up to this point in human history, been unrealized. The only threat to this emerging Golden era is #1 environmental destruction and #2 leaving large swaths of the world behind such as Africa. The Developed and Rapidly Developing worlds need eachother to continue progressing and to meet the above challenges. 

Over the next 50 years, China will no doubt have some major economic restructurings. There will be recessions and maybe a depression. There will also be major social and political changes. It will NOT be smooth sailing, so I'd be careful about becoming too arrogant concerning China's current growth rates. However, China will not look back... and this economic development will be sustained.

In contrast, the US will stay within a pretty moderate economic range, as the economy is already developed. Eventually, China will surpass the US numerically... but the US will still remain a major superpower, with huge contributions in R&D, medicine, space, etc. I truly believe that our relations will improve greatly over the coming decades. And as production costs rise in China, along with living standards... trade imbalances and other economic instabilities will find equilibrium. Certainly our two countries have a hard time understanding eachother... and many Americans still fear that the Communist government in China is a threat. However, most Americans also understand the predicament the Government is in trying to press necessary economic reforms without creating social chaos. We are very much trying to balance our rhetoric and understand the mind of China. China does things differently, but we still want to see democratic reform. I do think the China of 2050 will look dramatically different -- in a very good way -- than it does today. 

I truly believe we will be committed allies someday.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

Pluto said:


> Why can't we all just be happy that it finally seems that the world is getting its act together to move the human race forward both technologically and economically. China will provide a powerful and necessary engine to move the East forward and will act along side the EU and NA to provide the progress on this globe that has, up to this point in human history, been unrealized. The only threat to this emerging Golden era is #1 environmental destruction and #2 leaving large swaths of the world behind such as Africa. The Developed and Rapidly Developing worlds need eachother to continue progressing and to meet the above challenges.
> 
> Over the next 50 years, China will no doubt have some major economic restructurings. There will be recessions and maybe a depression. There will also be major social and political changes. It will NOT be smooth sailing, so I'd be careful about becoming too arrogant concerning China's current growth rates. However, China will not look back... and this economic development will be sustained.
> 
> ...


so nice and kind remark,but i don't think we can be allies someday,it'll not a problem for China,because historically,China is never aggresive,the hindering factor would surely be from another side.


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## pottebaum (Sep 11, 2004)

From SSP:




KCN said:


> By Bill Gertz
> THE WASHINGTON TIMES
> June 26, 2005
> 
> ...


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## pottebaum (Sep 11, 2004)

^I don't buy into all of that (even though a lot of people do), but the next few decades sure are going to be interesting.


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## liat91 (Apr 11, 2005)

U.S. protectionist, compared to China. LoLoLoLo...... Tienamen square anyone. Oh and China just loves immigrants and non chinese coming into their country to diversify and enhance their own culture. China and many Chinese I have personally met and been friends with seem to have this confucian idea of hierarchy almost obsessively ingrained into their psyche. Right now to them China and East Asia is number 2, right after the U.S. and European powers. Now they would at least like to match the power of the West to save face. China is good at direct attempts to elevate itself, even if those methods are devious by todays standards. Hello, everybody sees that. Bottom line, China really is welcomed by the rest of the world, but they should stop trying to prove this by suckering the rest of us. People are people, IQ means shit in this world, and China will realize it. The West is well prepared for China if it decides that China is trying to grow past its britches. 1.3 billion people can easily be brought down to 0 if necessary.


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## nzchinaREN (Jun 25, 2005)

excited to see so many "wise" whites here
it largely enhances my belief of china's bright future.


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## OlekD (Jun 26, 2003)

Sorry I have no time to study the whole thread, butI guess China although is still developing , In the near future It can to have problems to maintain 8% growth . Reason seems to be very clear. 

First of all China there will be great problem to find such huge amount of energy for entire Chinese society. It is almost sure that there won't be enough oil for this country and renewable sources of energy are still not so developed to satisfy people's claims. 

Second problem which can appear is fact that Chinese will become more conscious of their value , and will demand some institutions of welfare state.
It would boost dramatically costs of work.

Another scenario - European counties will find out that their economies are not so competetive to Chinese one and will leave policy of social security.


These 3 occurrencies can slow down Chinese growth.


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## nick_taylor (Mar 7, 2003)

Actually the main stumbling block of China is the over-heating economy and credit is also a wee problem that could burst the bubble. On altogether different front, the growth could become unmanagable...but in 5 years it could be quite different and China could lapse into a recession: its all too possible.


And if China attacked Taiwan in two years (no particular reason other than ego) then that would see trade sanctions placed upon China and it would most likely loose such a war purely on the economic front due to the might of the developed world (which is on the side of Tiawan), China would never risk such a maneuver.


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## touchring (Mar 25, 2005)

This Bill Gertz is interesting, i wonder if he wrote that article for career reasons or if he believed in it. hehe... I think he forgot that it's Japan that bombed Pearl Harbor.


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## loureed (Aug 10, 2003)

tiger said:


> so nice and kind remark,but i don't think we can be allies someday,it'll not a problem for China,because historically,China is never aggresive,the hindering factor would surely be from another side.


That's not true. China has tried to invade Vietnam repeatily. The last war between the two nations in the 1980s. Under the Mongols, there were two attempts to invade Japan. China also fired missles a few miles off the coast of Taiwan some years ago when they had elections. How is that not agressive?

History doesn't control the actions of leaders today.


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## touchring (Mar 25, 2005)

loureed said:


> That's not true. China has tried to invade Vietnam repeatily. The last war between the two nations in the 1980s. Under the Mongols, there were two attempts to invade Japan. China also fired missles a few miles off the coast of Taiwan some years ago when they had elections. How is that not agressive?
> 
> History doesn't control the actions of leaders today.


Interesting. There's no country that doesn't go to war, but on the whole, Chinese people are more interested in doing business than war. War spoils business and profits. Everyone knows this.

Currently, what is worrying is not China, but small nukes landing in the hands of some terrorist, and wherever the nuke is used, it will cause a big problem to the world economy and stability.


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

Umm... the Swiss don't go to war! :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:


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## touchring (Mar 25, 2005)

sorry, it should be - there's no large country that hasn't gone for war.


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

^ LOL, 'sok, I knew what you mean. 

But you know... if anyone ever tried to attack Switzerland, they'd get SPANKED by the Swiss military all up in those mountains!!! :cheers:


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

loureed said:


> That's not true. China has tried to invade Vietnam repeatily. The last war between the two nations in the 1980s. Under the Mongols, there were two attempts to invade Japan. China also fired missles a few miles off the coast of Taiwan some years ago when they had elections. How is that not agressive?
> 
> History doesn't control the actions of leaders today.


Not actually. Modern concept "country" is not the same as that in the ancient ages. Do you believe that Vietnam (at least some part of Vietnam) was part of China? China was "mother country" of Vietnam and Korea.

And Taiwan island is an absolute part of China. It's recognized by the UN and almost all countries in the world after the WWII. Taiwan was/is a part of Republic of China or People's Republic of China, anyway, it's a part of China. Those taiwanese who don't think they are Chinese may leave Taiwan, which is a part of China.


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

Just an aside, Mike19, I don't mean to sound like I'm stereotyping, but it's been my experience that Asian-Americans don't look "fondly" on their home country, as in they left behind a horrible desolate place.

I think this is really judgemental, because countries like China are not the same communist hellholes they left behind in the 50s/60s/70s. Instead they too can afford American-class comfort of living now, and I think a lot of Asian-Americans fail to see that.


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## skyscraper_1 (May 30, 2004)

We know one thing is for sure. If the economy does slow down or go into a resession the Communist party's monopoly on power will be over.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

skyscraper_1 said:


> We know one thing is for sure. If the economy does slow down or go into a resession the Communist party's monopoly on power will be over.


?

China's economy has been in recession for several times since 27 years ago,boy.


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## touchring (Mar 25, 2005)

tiger said:


> ?
> 
> China's economy has been in recession for several times since 27 years ago,boy.


A recession will hit many economies, especially for primary product producers like Australia, Malaysia, and the Middle East.

btw, China's invasion of Vietnam as reported by BBC - http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/february/17/newsid_2547000/2547811.stm.


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## Effer (Jun 9, 2005)

Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm said:


> Umm... the Swiss don't go to war! :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:


 :cheers:


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## touchring (Mar 25, 2005)

Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm said:


> Just an aside, Mike19, I don't mean to sound like I'm stereotyping, but it's been my experience that Asian-Americans don't look "fondly" on their home country, as in they left behind a horrible desolate place.
> 
> I think this is really judgemental, because countries like China are not the same communist hellholes they left behind in the 50s/60s/70s. Instead they too can afford American-class comfort of living now, and I think a lot of Asian-Americans fail to see that.


Inferiority complex?


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## touchring (Mar 25, 2005)

I took a close look at the topic again. "China may be a developed country to 2023". I think Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and a few other major cities will reach developed status even before 2023. But for the countryside/villages in inland provinces to reach developed status by 2023 would probably be difficult???


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## Mike19 (Feb 5, 2005)

Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm said:


> Just an aside, Mike19, I don't mean to sound like I'm stereotyping, but it's been my experience that Asian-Americans don't look "fondly" on their home country, as in they left behind a horrible desolate place.
> 
> I think this is really judgemental, because countries like China are not the same communist hellholes they left behind in the 50s/60s/70s. Instead they too can afford American-class comfort of living now, and I think a lot of Asian-Americans fail to see that.



I think the last part is true, but i also think that a lot of asian americans realize that Asia is developing. However, i would like to point out that i would say over 90% of first and second generation asian americans consider themselves to be americans of asian decent, not asians in america, so i dont think they care much about china etc.. however, ppl who immigrated here, probably have bad memories of their home countries, and they may not like their home countries. But it depends on the generation.


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

^ Yeah thanks for the info. Like I know a lot of Asian Americans in their 20s who want to go live in Korea, and their parents of course think they're nuts! 

I'm a 4th-gen Italian American, and I actually want to go live over in East or Southeast Asia for a while. And I have to say their modern transformation is one of the bigger reasons. :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:


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## Hidden Dragon (Oct 20, 2004)

China still have a long way to go! I think Chinese goverment's goal is more realistic: to be a developed country 80 years later.


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

Yeah China's still "on its way". I know there's a lot of people here in the US that frown upon things like the one child policy, but I realize its extremely important to regulate the Chinese population before it imploded upon itself.

The other big thing I worry about with China is basic sanitation. I really feel they're just one correctly-placed "SARS-type" outbreak away from losing a substantial percentage of their population.


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## loureed (Aug 10, 2003)

YangtzeSea said:


> Not actually. Modern concept "country" is not the same as that in the ancient ages. Do you believe that Vietnam (at least some part of Vietnam) was part of China? China was "mother country" of Vietnam and Korea.
> 
> And Taiwan island is an absolute part of China. It's recognized by the UN and almost all countries in the world after the WWII. Taiwan was/is a part of Republic of China or People's Republic of China, anyway, it's a part of China. Those taiwanese who don't think they are Chinese may left Taiwan, which is a part of China.


This doesn't mean China has rarely been aggressive as said by Tiger. China was aggressive to Vietnam just in 1979 and lost to Vietnam.


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## skyscraper_1 (May 30, 2004)

tiger said:


> ?
> 
> China's economy has been in recession for several times since 27 years ago,boy.


Not for atleast 15 years. Even during the Asian financial crisis mainland China GDP growth was only slowed down 1% or 2%. Also just after tiananmen square GDP growth was slowed. The people are more wealthy today and much less likely to listen to the government if that money is taken away.


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## skyscrapercity (Aug 31, 2004)

YangtzeSea said:


> Do you believe that Vietnam (at least some part of Vietnam) was part of China? China was "mother country" of Vietnam and Korea.


Maybe, the UNWANTED mother if you say so.
Cause NO true mother attack their precious children.

Anyway, there is no 'Mother, Father, Brothe, friend and whatever between countries.


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