# HongKong Freedom lost in 2047



## Xusein (Sep 27, 2005)

The CIA factbook has China at above $6 trillion. I'm sure that it is PPP though.


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## gladisimo (Dec 11, 2006)

I'll worry about that when it's 2040 and I'm 50 years old. For now, I'm gonna enjoy life


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## gladisimo (Dec 11, 2006)

Ribarca said:


> HK people don't seem to care about democracy. There is no democracy at the moment to start with.
> 
> Anyone who has been to China and the US will find the claims of China even in a century getting close to the wealth per capita of the US or Europe are ridiculous. There is such a long way to go. I won't even mention the quality of life differences.


Err...have you read this?

Hong Kong people might not voice their opinions too strongly about a fully elected legislative and executive body like it is in the US, but they certainly will not stay silent if they feel their rights have been infringed. They understand the need for a balance, not every government in the world has to be a complete representative democracy, as long as basic freedoms are preserved, imo. (Just look at the bureaucracy and mess the US system has made, it's far from the transparent government it makes itself out to be).


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## binhai (Dec 22, 2006)

Oaronuviss said:


> Well if you read the thread in the 'in the news' section about the 'eight questions not to ask...' you'll see from the 6 people I'm arguing with that they strongly believe China is a wonderous paradise that is a lot more free and better off than the United States, Canada, and all western nations.
> So in 2047, I can only assume everyone will want to be a Chinese citizen including Hong Kongers, and people from Macau. :|


Yes, China is a wonderous paradise that is a lot more free and better off than the United States, Canada, and all western nations. Not everyone wants to be a citizen of a country though, because its too different from their homeland...I don't see everyone wanting to be a US citizen (or that of another Western country). So Oaronuviss making absolutely no sense again, as usual. :banana:


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

urbanfan89 said:


> ^^ If the USA grows by 2% and China grows by just 5% annually, then they will be equal in 44 years.
> 
> Also, a high fertility rate has zip, zero, nada, zilch, nothing, to do with a robust economy. Just ask the African countries where every woman can expect to have seven kids.


It has to do. When an economy grows, it needs labour. Especially at high growth rates the productivity growth cannot sustain high growth, so there have to be additional labourers. E.g. if you want to have a GDP growth of 4%, but your productivity can grow only 2% per year, you need 2% more employees every year. When there are no additional employees available, then you can grow only with 2%. 

Here in Germany, many companies are facing the problem that there are just no available engineers any more so that they have to cancel orders. China also gets the prolem as there are no more available workers in the countryside ready to move to the Pearl River Delta.
The problem isn't noticed yet, as the baby-boomers are in the best years of work now. But when they start reaching the retirement age, the shrinkage of the labour potential will start, and soon the growth will slow down. 

Of course, that high fertility rates in Africa aren't good for the economy, but, have you noticed when the Economy grew the fastest in the western world? Right, when the Fertility rate was at around 3 children in the 50s and 60s!


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## AltinD (Jul 15, 2004)

Chrissib said:


> ... Demographic data is speaking for the US. The USA have a fertility rate of 2.1, enough to ensure a stable population, whereas China's fertility moves around 1.7-1.8. The demographic desaster is even more striking in the two major cities Beijing and Shanghai, where the fertility rate dropped to 0.8. That means that the future Generation of young Beijingers and Shanghaiers is just a third the size of the Generation today! The population would soon start (without migration) to halve every 20-25 years!
> 
> Is this a sustainable fundament to build the largest economy on?


Ok, where have you been living in the last (insert a number here) decades that you haven't heard about China's "one child" policy.


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## HKG (Aug 2, 2006)

Master Altin have you ever try these ice-cream made from HK ?


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## karim aboussir (Dec 4, 2006)

china will be a very old nation in 2047 average age population I believe will be 46 compared to today average age of 31 I could be wrong let me know


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

AltinD said:


> Ok, where have you been living in the last (insert a number here) decades that you haven't heard about China's "one child" policy.


I have lived the last 1.9 decades in Germany and have heard of the one-child-policy or what do you mean??


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## bobdikl (Jul 20, 2004)

Chrissib said:


> It has to do. When an economy grows, it needs labour. Especially at high growth rates the productivity growth cannot sustain high growth, so there have to be additional labourers. E.g. if you want to have a GDP growth of 4%, but your productivity can grow only 2% per year, you need 2% more employees every year. When there are no additional employees available, then you can grow only with 2%.
> 
> Here in Germany, many companies are facing the problem that there are just no available engineers any more so that they have to cancel orders. China also gets the prolem as there are no more available workers in the countryside ready to move to the Pearl River Delta.
> The problem isn't noticed yet, as the baby-boomers are in the best years of work now. But when they start reaching the retirement age, the shrinkage of the labour potential will start, and soon the growth will slow down.
> ...


almost all academic-based studies have failed to predict china's economic since the 1990's. I think those prediction based on figures that have littele relevance to cultural patterns that differ from Asia to Africa, America, and to Europe.


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## AltinD (Jul 15, 2004)

5684 said:


> Master Altin have you ever try these ice-cream made from HK ?


Never had the chance to visit HK, unfortunately ... but as I'm writing this I'm having a vanilla flavored one from Baskin Robbins. Also saw HK today featured on Batman: The Dark Knight 




Chrissib said:


> I have lived the last 1.9 decades in Germany and have heard of the one-child-policy or what do you mean??


Why would you have called it a "demographic disaster" if you knew that the Government was responsible for it, and it restrictions can be revoked at any time if needed? 

Even if you'd argue that the economic growth is closely related to the population growth, you'd still be wrong, because China isn't as economically developed as the countries you are comparing to, so it has allot of available human resources to support the economic growth for decades to come. :cheers:


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## xXFallenXx (Jun 15, 2007)

For the foreseeable future China wont have a problem with having to few people. And after 2040-50 you can't predict a damn thing (accurately). So for now the population wont be a hindrance on China's economy.


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## Manila-X (Jul 28, 2005)

Its *never* gonna happen


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

There has been talk of relaxing the one child policy of late, and it is very much possible that in a few decades' time, that policy can be scrapped to change the demographic profile.


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## Ribarca (Jan 28, 2005)

gladisimo said:


> Err...have you read this?
> 
> Hong Kong people might not voice their opinions too strongly about a fully elected legislative and executive body like it is in the US, but they certainly will not stay silent if they feel their rights have been infringed. They understand the need for a balance, not every government in the world has to be a complete representative democracy, as long as basic freedoms are preserved, imo. (Just look at the bureaucracy and mess the US system has made, it's far from the transparent government it makes itself out to be).


I'm obviously aware of these marches (covered on page 6 of the big papers here these days). I'm just stipulating that HK people never experienced real democracy (not in British times and not now) and don't strife for it. 

As you explain people will mainly voice their opinion when it really hits their personal freedom and also importantly their economic freedom (wallet).


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## Adams3 (Mar 2, 2007)

hkskyline said:


> There has been talk of relaxing the one child policy of late, and it is very much possible that in a few decades' time, that policy can be scrapped to change the demographic profile.


In a few decades' time, it would be like South Korea today had a one-child policy. Instead, South Korea is desperate to increase its birth rate, just like all other countries with less than 1.5 children per woman.


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## karim aboussir (Dec 4, 2006)

in 30 years the world will have so many old people


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## HD (Sep 17, 2003)

Ribarca said:


> Exactly. Next to that why would China kill a cash cow like HK.


cash cow? who says it will still be in 2047? 

by then shanghai, guangzhou and probably several other cities in china will be more significant than HK ..


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## Oaronuviss (Dec 11, 2002)

null said:


> 6 people? they are the same person! Our govt simply can't afford SIX propaganda machines.:lol:


Bah nonsense! China is loaded.


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## Oaronuviss (Dec 11, 2002)

BarbaricManchurian said:


> Yes, China is a wonderous paradise that is a lot more free and better off than the United States, Canada, and all western nations. Not everyone wants to be a citizen of a country though, because its too different from their homeland...I don't see everyone wanting to be a US citizen (or that of another Western country). So Oaronuviss making absolutely no sense again, as usual. :banana:


No no, EVERYONE WILL want to be Chinese... come on!
You and a few others are so CERTAIN China is THE best place in the known Universe!!! Nothing wrong there!

So, that's the answer to this thread...


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## Dale (Sep 12, 2002)

Democracy is not all its cracked up to be.


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## hoosier (Apr 11, 2007)

China is not a socialist or even a communist country anymore and it hasn't been for years.


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## hoosier (Apr 11, 2007)

Dale said:


> Democracy is not all its cracked up to be.


What would you propose in its place? Everybody thinks that they know what is best for their country, state, city, etc. but the truth is that they don't.

Democracy is not perfect, but it is a million times better than any other system of government.


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## superchan7 (Jan 21, 2004)

This thread isn't really substantial...it sounds like a student rant. Some people are assuming that China is forever a constant, where in reality it is constantly changing.

Even assuming China's development stagnates completely for the next 40 years, its leaders know the importance of HKSAR and its people--a skilled, educated, civilized workforce that the whole country can learn from. The Basic Law can be renewed and the SAR's autonomy extended......

......but I really doubt that the situation would be that dreadful in 2047. The reality will be somewhere in between, with China seeing massive strides in living standards and management of government corruption (corruption is widely accepted as the biggest cause of human rights violations in China), but with HKSAR and MSAR still maintaining leading positions.


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## snow is red (May 7, 2007)

Oaronuviss said:


> Well if you read the thread in the 'in the news' section about the 'eight questions not to ask...' you'll see from the 6 people I'm arguing with that they strongly believe China is a wonderous paradise that is a lot more free and better off than the United States, Canada, and all western nations.
> So in 2047, I can only assume everyone will want to be a Chinese citizen including Hong Kongers, and people from Macau. :|


What kind of person are you ?

Just because people don't agree with what you think, you bring up your sarcasm, satire and mockery ?


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## Matchut (May 2, 2008)

delete


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## karim aboussir (Dec 4, 2006)

china is officially a communist country but unofficially it is a capitalist country ??


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## YelloPerilo (Oct 17, 2003)

^^

China is officially a republic ruled by one party.


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## binhai (Dec 22, 2006)

Oaronuviss said:


> No no, EVERYONE WILL want to be Chinese... come on!
> You and a few others are so CERTAIN China is THE best place in the known Universe!!! Nothing wrong there!
> 
> So, that's the answer to this thread...


EVERYONE WILL want to be Chinese, and I am CERTAIN China is THE best place in the known universe!!!


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

BarbaricManchurian said:


> EVERYONE WILL want to be Chinese, and I am CERTAIN China is THE best place in the known universe!!!


As it isn't a democracy, i don't want to be chinese


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## big-dog (Mar 11, 2007)

hoosier said:


> Democracy is not perfect, but it is a million times better than any other system of government.


Generalizing. It's true for developed countries but for developing countries/areas, thing might be different.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

big-dog said:


> Generalizing. It's true for developed countries but for developing countries/areas, thing might be different.


India is doing very well as a federal republic!


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## Anekdote (Apr 11, 2005)

WANCH said:


> Its *never* gonna happen


I hope that and after 2047 HK will keep everything from today, laws, currencey, left driving (what i like at most), etc... plus freemdom for elections would be great too.


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## big-dog (Mar 11, 2007)

Chrissib said:


> India is doing very well as a federal republic!


true but still not as good as a "dictatorial" country in most aspects


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## big-dog (Mar 11, 2007)

Anekdote said:


> I hope that and after 2047 HK will keep everything from today, laws, currencey, left driving (what i like at most), etc... plus freemdom for elections would be great too.


everything except currency and left-driving


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## binhai (Dec 22, 2006)

Chrissib said:


> As it isn't a democracy, i don't want to be chinese


Your sarcasm detector doesn't seem to be too effective right now .


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## HKG (Aug 2, 2006)

Chrissib said:


> India is doing very well as a federal republic!


I agree.


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## AltinD (Jul 15, 2004)

Chrissib said:


> India is doing very well as a federal republic!


In what sense?


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## Manila-X (Jul 28, 2005)

Anekdote said:


> I hope that and after 2047 HK will keep everything from today, laws, currencey, left driving (what i like at most), etc... plus freemdom for elections would be great too.


Time will tell. 2047 is a long way to go. Alot can happen in between.


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## Matchut (May 2, 2008)

delete


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