# hongkong's future:will shanghai take his position out?



## shibuya_suki (Apr 24, 2005)

any opinion?


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

1. The population of Shanghai is 2 times of that of Hong Kong.

2. The GDP of Shanghai (2004) is 1/2 of Hong Kong (2004). But according to PPP, maybe Shanghai has surpassed HK. I'm not sure about that.

3. Shanghai do be catching up. And Hong Kong do be relatively lagged, just like most cities in the world.

4. Will Shanghai surpass Hong Kong in the future? Maybe I have to say yes. But It will take more than 10-15 years, and HongKong will still be more wealthy/developed than Shanghai in a long time. You know, Shanghai is a part of China economically and have to pay tax to central government while HK is economically independent.


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## V80 (May 3, 2005)

may be...


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## Sexas (Jan 15, 2004)

why peoople always ask pointless question like New York and Chicago which one is better, London and Paris which one have more power or Hong Kong and Shanghai who will surpass who... You never see people ask useful question like - 'What can Hong Kong do/help to make Shanghai grow faster', or 'What can Shanghai and Hong Kong do to make both cities growing on the same time but not hurting each other.'

need my morning coffee...


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## carry_a_torch (Apr 30, 2005)

not 2 times population,maybe nealy 3 times,shanghai has about 18 million while HK has about 6.5million.
\


YangtzeSea said:


> 1. The population of Shanghai is 2 times of that of Hong Kong.
> 
> 2. The GDP of Shanghai (2004) is 1/2 of Hong Kong (2004). But according to PPP, maybe Shanghai has surpassed HK. I'm not sure about that.
> 
> ...


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

carry_a_torch said:


> not 2 times population,maybe nealy 3 times,shanghai has about 18 million while HK has about 6.5million.
> \


The population of Hong Kong is 7-8 million. And the city population of Shanghai is 14 million (there're 4 million people live in the suburb which can't actually be called Shanghainese and they really contribute little. We shouldn't compare Hong Kong with "Shanghai Province", right?)


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## carry_a_torch (Apr 30, 2005)

YangtzeSea said:


> The population of Hong Kong is 7-8 million. And the city population of Shanghai is 14 million (there're 4 million people live in the suburb which can't actually be called Shanghainese and they really contribute little. We shouldn't compare Hong Kong with "Shanghai Province", right?)


No,they contribute alot,many factories are in the surburb.


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

Population doesn't necessarily play a very important role. Although consumerism is a major part of the local economy from a macroeconomics perspective, Hong Kong's advantage is far beyond that. China's capital controls is a major problem for international business activities. The Hong Kong Dollar is fully convertible and trades internationally, which is a major benefit for foreign investors. Similarly, Hong Kong's stock market is far more internationalized and funds can come in and out easily. 

It will take some time before the mainland's foreign exchange, capital markets, and judicial systems reach Hong Kong's level. Until then, Hong Kong will still maintain a significant competitive advantage. That being said, I still see a dual role for the two cities. Hong Kong will be the primary international gateway while Shanghai will be a domestic hub for China.


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## kamloon (Aug 8, 2004)

Tokyo have the GDP equal to New York plus London, so does Tokyo have the power equal to New York plus London, Tokyo may have its huge population advantage, but to measure the powerness of a city, GDP and population are not the only factors

That's why osaka have far larger GDP than Singapore, but indeed SGP is a alpha world city but osaka is not

The same happen between Hong Kong and Shanghai, even Shanghai's GDP will surpass Hong Kong in the future, that does't mean anything, no one believe that Tokyo is more important than New York


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## vvill (Sep 20, 2002)

it's interesting people like to compare hong kong and shanghai these days all the time. i understand both cities seem to serve as financial centres of similar nature but in fact, they've targeted to achieve something rather different. 

the chinese government is aiming at developing shanghai as the premiere financial city in china while hong kong being the financial hub for the whole asia-pacific region. the two cities have their own strengths and they're very different in nature. shanghai is close to the main industrial areas in china and it would be sensible for companies to set up their offices in shanghai to monitor their production lines for proximity and efficiency reasons. hong kong as a contrast, has a well-developed financial system and more importantly, there's no control on currency exchange (still it'd take years or even decades for RMB to be able to be converted freely over the market). this makes Hong Kong the ideal place for multi-national companies to set up their regional HQs.


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## vvill (Sep 20, 2002)

*Number of Regional Headquarters and Regional Offices in HK, 1996-2004*


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## InitialD18 (Sep 17, 2002)

i agree with you ... but shanghai does have the potential to be much more than hk ... shanghai has the potential of becoming the centre of the world ... 
hk is still quite a bit more developed so it will take some time ... 
and hk's financial hub status ... 
it wouldn't be taken over i think ...
as the meeting place of chinese firms and foreign funds ...


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## brooklynprospect (Apr 27, 2005)

InitialD18 said:


> i agree with you ... but shanghai does have the potential to be much more than hk ... shanghai has the potential of becoming the centre of the world ...
> hk is still quite a bit more developed so it will take some time ...
> and hk's financial hub status ...
> it wouldn't be taken over i think ...
> as the meeting place of chinese firms and foreign funds ...


Of course Shanghai will take HK's position. HK has better skyscrapers, infrastructure, food, incomes, and really just about better everything than Shanghai. But guess what? It doesn't matter, because the Chinese government is pressing for Shanghai to become China's economic capital. If Chinese companies under government encouragement/prodding move their HQs to Shanghai, then foreign firms will follow. They already are. The Chinese will decide which Chinese city will be their hub, not westerners. This is not a patriotic statement (I'm not even from mainland China). Just common sense.

And if Shanghai becomes (or already is) China's main economic hub, what does that leave for HK? There's no long-term need for HK to act as some kind of mediator city between the scary weird Chinese in Shanghai and the civilized nice foreigners in NY, Tokyo, London etc. It's role will be a regional hub for South China, maybe like Chicago's role in America.


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## ChinaboyUSA (May 10, 2005)

Shanghai's location is Yangtze Delta, where there are more intelligent people from history till now, and Hong Kong is located in Pearl River Delta, where is reputed as its business function...Shanghai has deeper Chinese culture -- 'Hai Pai (Ocean Concept) culture in compare with Beijing...but culturally, I won't put Shanghai and Hong Kong on the same level in term of the Chinese culture...Western culture, both has its own features as they are all very famous among foreign countries...Personally, I like both cities, they are all great business cities, but Shanghai has deeper typical Chinese intelligent culture interact with the business culture, Hong Kong is more depends on its business function especially a banking center. 

I would vote for Shanghai, but Hong Kong (if you consider on melting - pot section or western category, it is more commercial so far). In the future, it is hard to tell who will win and who will lose, the government of China says that the nation can have two financial centers at the same time.

All the best, Hong Kong and Shanghai.


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## brooklynprospect (Apr 27, 2005)

ChinaboyUSA said:


> the government of China says that the nation can have two financial centers at the same time.


The chinese government doesn't want to scare the shit out of people in HK. Especially since they still want to win over Taiwan voluntarily. But let's for a moment imagine that you're a leading member of the chinese communist party. Which city would you encourage to be your country's business capital? HK, which is outside of your direct control, and far more independent / free-willed than the rest of China? Or Shanghai, safely inside the legal/control boundries of your government?

And China looks like it will end up with one overall center. Do you think companies will have a South China HQ in HK and a rest-of-China HQ in Shanghai? Or have half the stocks traded in HK and half traded in Shanghai?

HK will probably keep some important niches, just like for example Chicago is number one in derivatives and commodies trading in America, and like Boston is number one in mutual funds in America. But nevertheless, NY remains the overwhelming center for the financial industry.


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

It's not in the best interests of Beijing to abandon Hong Kong and grow Shanghai. In fact, Hong Kong is a huge investor in China and China is always there to give HK a hand when times go bad. Beijing quickly responded to SARS by allowing mainland tourists to visit Hong Kong on simplifed visa application procedures, and millions poured in to revive the local economy.

The Communist Party is not very uptight in forcing headquarters to move to one particular city. They want to bring Shanghai back to its glorious days a century ago, but not at the expense of any other city. In fact, they are encouraging the wealth to spread around. That's why many Chinese companies are listing in Hong Kong. That's why the CEPA free trade agreement was signed to give Hong Kong and Macau companies with preferable access to mainland markets.

The regime is not blindly attaching to some mythical belief that all hell break loose if people don't go to Shanghai. They want economic development, and not some ideological goal. That's the major shift in thinking in today's capitalistic Communist China.


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## samsonyuen (Sep 23, 2003)

I don't think Shanghai can take HK's position. It's already got the global city link. If anythin, Shanghai will simply grow and create its own niche. China's a huge country, it can have lots of big important cities.


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## ChinaboyUSA (May 10, 2005)

samsonyuen said:


> I don't think Shanghai can take HK's position. It's already got the global city link. If anythin, Shanghai will simply grow and create its own niche. China's a huge country, it can have lots of big important cities.


Both cities belongs to not only China, but also the world.
Actually I like the name of HSBC -- Hong Kong & Shanghai Bank Corporation


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

brooklynprospect said:


> And China looks like it will end up with one overall center. Do you think companies will have a South China HQ in HK and a rest-of-China HQ in Shanghai? Or have half the stocks traded in HK and half traded in Shanghai?


Please don't imagine.in fact,each part of china has often an independant RHQ(for ex,the RHQ of western china is usually located in Chongqing).

not only Shanghai wants to be the financial centre but Beijing also does.Beijing has actually a not bad basis to reach it because of its capital status and lots of Beijing-located chinese huge national financial companies.it's important that both Shanghai and Beijing can not own a superiority in terms of tax and financial regime like HK,HK will continue to be the biggest financial hub of china.


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

tiger said:


> Please don't imagine.in fact,each part of china has often an independant RHQ(for ex,the RHQ of western china is usually located in Chongqing).
> 
> not only Shanghai wants to be the financial centre but Beijing also does.Beijing has actually a not bad basis to reach it because of its capital status and lots of Beijing-located chinese huge national financial companies.it's important that both Shanghai and Beijing can not own a superiority in terms of tax and financial regime like HK,HK will continue to be the biggest financial hub of china.


Hk will continue to be an important financial hub of Asia, but defintely not the biggest financial hub of China. Can Tokyo be the financial hub of China? So is Hong Kong.


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## Kenwen (May 1, 2005)

Hk gain advantages is because in the old days, the foreign companies can only entered the chinese market from HK. But now, foreign companies can hav access to any chinese cities, so Hk's advantage has gone. And from statistics, now the major comsumption in HK are create by the mainland chinese, without them hk will goes into recession straight away, so i think the better idea for hk to do is to remove all the bloody border checks, so that the accesibility to hk is alot better, because currently, it takes half hour to cross over the border check. Comsumption is count as majority of aggregate demand, ad drives the growth of a economy. so hk better remove their border checks, and remenber u r part of china. Can someone tell me why there is a need for the border check?


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

Actually, the mainland's judiciary system and capital controls are still a major problem for foreign investors. Hence, they would prefer using a gateway such as Hong Kong to base their headquarters functions. 

The surge in mainland tourists only target specific areas of the retail sector. For example, local markets don't benefit from tourism. Fruit and vegetable sales will not see a drastic correlation either. Consumerism also includes non-perishable items, such as appliances. Tourists are not going to buy a refrigerator and bring it back to the mainland.

Tourism is a large driver of Hong Kong's economy, just like many other developed economies. Hence, the correlation between economic advantage and consumerism is quite weak. If Hong Kong didn't provide an advantage, why would mainlanders come to shop? Conversely, the mass majority of local retailers are not dependent on foreign tourism because tourists only buy a small range of goods and services. The consumer sector is much larger than what tourists buy.


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## skyscraper_1 (May 30, 2004)

Hong Kong still has much more developed and stable financial infrastructure. If Shanghai developes its own infrastructure in the following decades it can quickly become one of the top cities in the world. HK will still remain important though.


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

Both cities will remain vitally important far into the future. Both are essential for China's continued development. Shanghai has the resources and drive to become a truly world class city. Hong Kong is still ahead in terms of per-capita wealth, financial and technical infrastructure, but Shanghai is catching up. The Shanghainese are a very sophisticated bunch, Shanghai is simply returning to it's place at center stage. However, this doesn't mean HK will just fade from the scene. Far from it, HK will remain the most important city of Southern China and a regional hub of SE Asia. HK will continue to integrate with the other Cantonese regions of the Pearl River Delta and eventually merge to form one of the great super-cities of the world. 

Truly, I think the future is bright for Shanghai, HK and especially for China.


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## bs_lover_boy (Apr 16, 2004)

Remember, Hong Kong has the world's highest economical freedom for a long time and is scoring near perfect (or is scoring perfect). So even if China improves their economy drastically, they can never reach the level of Hong Kong. Therefore, the desirability for large corporations to base operations is most likely to be Hong Kong rather than Shanghai. Not that I am saying that Shanghai is bad or anything, but I am saying that in terms of desirability, Hong Kong has the better advantage.


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## beijinggreg (Jul 14, 2004)

Yes...and then no. Indeed Shanghai is fast becoming a preferred destination for China and Asian HQ's for MNCs, and is also working it's way towards a more developd equities and capital market, etc. And yes, shanghai is now larger in populuation than Hong Kong with more room/land to develop. Furthermore Jiangsu and Zhejiang are very competitive manufacturing centers on par with Guanghzou. But....by the time Shanghai reaches HOng Kong's level (10-15 years) Hong kong will be highly integrated with Shenzhen (think Dallas/FW) which also has it's own equities markets among other things. You won't be comparing (circa 2020) SHanghai (20m) vs. Hong Kong (8m), but rather Shanghai vs. the Hong Kong/Shenzhen metro which at these rates will be right there wth Shanghai in Population, and certainly more advanced as the Pearl River Delta development plans go forward. Fathom Hong Kong and shenzhen wiht integrated train systems allowing Hong Kong and (maybe shenzhen) travelers to commute seamlessly backand forth possibly high speed trains connecting not only HK and SHenzhen, but Guangzhou and it's many satellites as well. By 2020 you're looking at an integrated population of of like 40m people, wiht an enormous amount of infrastructure in between not the least of which is 2 world class airports (Hk and GZ) and pretty darn good domestic one in Shenzhen. I think HK and the region will be leading for a while bu either way, both of these places are going to be pretty impressive in 10-20 years.


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## OBman (May 26, 2004)

All i can say is "Go China"


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## fk310 (Sep 11, 2003)

beijinggreg said:


> Yes...and then no. Indeed Shanghai is fast becoming a preferred destination for China and Asian HQ's for MNCs, and is also working it's way towards a more developd equities and capital market, etc. And yes, shanghai is now larger in populuation than Hong Kong with more room/land to develop. Furthermore Jiangsu and Zhejiang are very competitive manufacturing centers on par with Guanghzou. But....by the time Shanghai reaches HOng Kong's level (10-15 years) Hong kong will be highly integrated with Shenzhen (think Dallas/FW) which also has it's own equities markets among other things. You won't be comparing (circa 2020) SHanghai (20m) vs. Hong Kong (8m), but rather Shanghai vs. the Hong Kong/Shenzhen metro which at these rates will be right there wth Shanghai in Population, and certainly more advanced as the Pearl River Delta development plans go forward. Fathom Hong Kong and shenzhen wiht integrated train systems allowing Hong Kong and (maybe shenzhen) travelers to commute seamlessly backand forth possibly high speed trains connecting not only HK and SHenzhen, but Guangzhou and it's many satellites as well. By 2020 you're looking at an integrated population of of like 40m people, wiht an enormous amount of infrastructure in between not the least of which is 2 world class airports (Hk and GZ) and pretty darn good domestic one in Shenzhen. I think HK and the region will be leading for a while bu either way, both of these places are going to be pretty impressive in 10-20 years.




Yes, good point. However, at the same time, I think Shanghai will be integrating quickly with its neighboring cities as well. So you will have the PRD delta region with HK and Guangzhou as its heads, however, you will also have the Yangtze Delta region centered around the cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo. A huge conglomeration of urban areas. Indeed, they may actually be faster in integration as there are no checkpoints or borders between these cities already. So China will basically have two huge urban conglomerations, the PRD delta and the Yangtze delta which will be constantly compared to each other. 

Other possible smaller but still huge urban conglomerations will be the Beijing-Tianjin Bohai area. And possibly the Chongqing region after the three gorges dam is built and infrastructure and urbanization is sped up. 

All in all, this is all good for China. China should at least have 5-10 mega-urban regions by the middle of this century.


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## InitialD18 (Sep 17, 2002)

the borders for hk is right now hk's most important advantage ... it is this difference that makes the extra cost in investment worthwhile ... it is also this difference which makes hk different from sz or gz ... 
i don't think it will help hk or prd much if the border 
was removed ... 

what did you guys think when shenzhen remove its borders??? i thought the city became a less safe place ... however the city is now twice the size in area and population in relation to hk ...


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## Cheese Mmmmmmmmmmmm (Apr 8, 2005)

I love Hong Kong :cheers:

Who's willing to help me out to get Right of Abode status?


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## andreway (Oct 2, 2004)

Kenwen said:


> Hk gain advantages is because in the old days, the foreign companies can only entered the chinese market from HK. But now, foreign companies can hav access to any chinese cities, so Hk's advantage has gone. And from statistics, now the major comsumption in HK are create by the mainland chinese, without them hk will goes into recession straight away, so i think the better idea for hk to do is to remove all the bloody border checks, so that the accesibility to hk is alot better, because currently, it takes half hour to cross over the border check. Comsumption is count as majority of aggregate demand, ad drives the growth of a economy. so hk better remove their border checks, and remenber u r part of china. Can someone tell me why there is a need for the border check?


The border is there because Hong Kong’s standard of living is still relatively higher than China’s. If it is to open the border today, it is very likely that one will see a decrease in HK’s standard of living and an increase in crime rate due to a large increase of mainlander immigrations. I am not trying to be bias or anything, but China still has a large countryside population who are ready to migrate to the next mega city that opens up in search for new opportunities. Unfortunately, these new immigrates usually ends up unemployed, and becomes a burden for HK. At least that is what the majority of people in HK think. In many ways the border issue is similar to the social issues that East and West Germany faced when they reunited.

But another reason why the border exists is also for the protection of the Chinese Communist Party. Because of the “one country two system” policy, the people of Hong Kong enjoy a great degree of freedom of speech and press. There are frequent demonstrations and criticism against the Chinese Communist Party on issues like human rights and Tiananmen Square. The Communist Party do NOT want the majority of its population to get exposed to such large degree of freedom. The border’s purpose is similar to that of the Iron Curtin. It is unfortunate that while people on both side of the border and consider Chinese, they enjoy unequal degrees of freedom and living of standard.


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## andreway (Oct 2, 2004)

Kenwen said:


> Hk gain advantages is because in the old days, the foreign companies can only entered the chinese market from HK. But now, foreign companies can hav access to any chinese cities, so Hk's advantage has gone. And from statistics, now the major comsumption in HK are create by the mainland chinese, without them hk will goes into recession straight away, so i think the better idea for hk to do is to remove all the bloody border checks, so that the accesibility to hk is alot better, because currently, it takes half hour to cross over the border check. Comsumption is count as majority of aggregate demand, ad drives the growth of a economy. so hk better remove their border checks, and remenber u r part of china. Can someone tell me why there is a need for the border check?


While it is true that the recent economic growth of HK was possible because of the large support from China, China should not forget the huge investments it received from HK during the early years of economic reforms. Hong Kong was one of China's biggest investor it its early years of developing during the late 70s and 80s, and even now the investment from HK on china is massive. Hong Kong's contribution to China's growth should not be ignored either  

And yes, we Kongers are Chinese too!!! That is why whenever there are massive floods and earth quakes in China, we are always the top donor! I think many mainlanders underestimate how much we care about China. In the end China and Hong Kong lives in a symbiotic relationship, and I believe the border's existence is needed for it causes stability on BOTH side of the country.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

andreway said:


> While it is true that the recent economic growth of HK was possible because of the large support from China, China should not forget the huge investments it received from HK during the early years of economic reforms. Hong Kong was one of China's biggest investor it its early years of developing during the late 70s and 80s, and even now the investment from HK on china is massive. Hong Kong's contribution to China's growth should not be ignored either
> 
> And yes, we Kongers are Chinese too!!! That is why whenever there are massive floods and earth quakes in China, we are always the top donor! I think many mainlanders underestimate how much we care about China. In the end China and Hong Kong lives in a symbiotic relationship, and I believe the border's existence is needed for it causes stability on BOTH side of the country.


the border will be canceled when you are a grandpa,maybe when father if lucky enough


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## shibuya_suki (Apr 24, 2005)

cancel the border is nothing
now hong kong is mainlandizing after tung che wa,donald tsung
one country is greater than two systems,two system is just bullshit

decrease freedom of seech,limited democracy,control the election of legislation governement,private radio and nespaper,TV channel start to control by beijing central government

whats the different between shanghai and hong kong except land price and livibg cost?

whats different between the eduacated people in both place??
does hker has much better english,brainstorm,better education background and environment than shanghai??


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## normandb (Jan 11, 2005)

hongkong's future:will shanghai take his position out? 

Answer: Only if HongKong runs out of space


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## Effer (Jun 9, 2005)

yes,in the future


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## samsonyuen (Sep 23, 2003)

I think in the future, China's economy will be so big, they'll be several top cities, similar to the US. HK will never lose its role, Shanghai's role will just grow with the Chinese economy.


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

shibuya_suki said:


> cancel the border is nothing
> now hong kong is mainlandizing after tung che wa,donald tsung
> one country is greater than two systems,two system is just bullshit
> 
> ...


Hong Kongers have a much broader international perspective than mainlanders because the local culture encourages venturing abroad to see the world. It is still very difficult for the average middle class person to venture outside China. There are a lot of travel restrictions and money is a major factor.

Life in Hong Kong is a mixture of both Western and Eastern influences. This is only starting to move into mainland China. Hong Kong's primary TV channels broadcast in Cantonese, Mandarin, and English from a large number of countries, while mainland television is still dominated by domestically-produced programs. It's typical for a Hong Konger to tune into CNBC during the day, BBC World for news, and then TVB Cantonese sitcoms at night.

In fact, Hong Kong's media is fiercely independent and there are always outcries of perceived censorship. The largest newspapers are *not* controlled by Beijing and editorials are oftentimes very critical of the Hong Kong government. The power of the media was so strong that Beijing had to heed to public opinion and replace the unpopular Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa. Such a political move would be unthinkable in the mainland.


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## andreway (Oct 2, 2004)

shibuya_suki said:


> cancel the border is nothing
> now hong kong is mainlandizing after tung che wa,donald tsung
> one country is greater than two systems,two system is just bullshit
> 
> ...


Two system is not bullshit when u are on the hk side of the border, for most ppl in hk feels the need to protect their narrowing freedom of expression. Like what you said, freedom of speech, democracy, election of legislation and private radios are slowly being control by the local government due to pressure from Beijing. Now without the one country two system, this will happen even faster. Now let me ask you this. Why would anyone who is enjoying a higher degree of freedom and human right want to give it up to a more suppressive government? It makes no sense. I am sure no mainland Chinese today want to go back to the days of cultural revolution, when their freedom was even more limited. Only when mainland's human right records and freedom of speech reaches the level of tolerance of HK or Taiwan will citizens from both of these places be WILLING to be ruled by such a government. Hong Kongese and Taiwanese are Chinese too, don't you think they want unification? But it is mainland that is making it impossible by having government that totally ignoring its citizens' freedom. Economical growth does not compensate or justify sacrificing human rights. 

What's the difference between shanghai and hk is much more than just cost of living and land prices. It is freedom and self dignity. Believe it or not, hk people care more about their human right and their dignity more than the well being of their economy. The Chinese government might think that by helping the hk economy will hk citizens like china more. This is NOT the case. Many mainlanders that I know in university think that when China catches up to the living standards of hk or USA will China be considered a great and respectable country. I dare to say that it will be considered great but not a respectable country. I would like to repeat myself to the necessity of one country two system because if protects the freedom of the hk citizens, and it also stabilize the political situation in the mainland.


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