# Dubai... you're going too fast! You're taking a huge risk!



## smussuw

dubai888 said:


> LoL .. i was going to say that tooooo ... except i know people living here for more than 30 years ... having all the specs you were talking about ... and they are Bedoooon "without passport" .. mostly they are originaly from Iran !!!



Actually pakistani have a better chance of having emarati citizenship than the bedoons.


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## Qatar4Ever

I think the last 30 years dubai grew out of real demand and the plans for the next 10 years are being built on anticpated demand. This is why no "bubble" had burst yet. Im really afraid that the residential real estate bubble that many gulf millionare are enjoying is not going to last much long. My thoughts only!


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## midlifecrisis

*I agree*

Hi all,

I've been looking into investing into real estate in Dubai and visited the place in April 2004 and at the beginning of this year.

I, too, was worried about the fact that people only buy into property to make money of it rather than actually live in it. 

So I made a simple test to check the rate of occupancy: On my first trip in April I drove along the marina at about 11 pm. The six towers that had been completed at the time have roughly 1,300 apartments. In all six towers a total of about 20 apartments were illuminated. On two other occasions (one at night, one in the morning) I repeated the drive by and found the same result. At that time I thought "Ok, the place is new, maybe people haven't moved in yet".

When I returned in early January I repeated the test. Same result. I then visited the marina by day several times. Apart from fridays the only people you encounter at the marina walk are real estate agents and their prospective customers (the preferred meeting point being the Starbucks).

Finally I drove through the "Springs" development to check occupancy of town houses and villas (although it's in principle a collection of gated communities, you can freely walk / drive into many of them). I literally drove by hundreds of houses of which perhaps 10-20 looked occupied (cars in the driveway, stores at the windows etc.) I didn't see any people (besides construction workers) at all on three different occasions. (I also visited a couple of villas with a real estate agent to get an impression of the build quality and neighborhood.)

Conclusions:

1. With regard to freehold properties I'd estimate the rate of occupancy far below 10% (see also the huge property section in gulf news and note the abundance of offers "to let").

2. If a real estate agents says you can easily let the property you just bought to make money off it, he has no clue (or worse...).

3. If a house or property is unoccupied for some time it will degrade rapidly. This can easily be seen in the Springs villas that were completed 1 1/2 years ago.

4. This is a bubble which will burst sooner or later. While dealing with the real estate agent I got the feeling that the whole property market in DXB is actually some sort of a pyramid scheme: Buy cheap off plan, turn around and resell, the new buyer resells as well etc. Think carefully before buying because you could be the last "recruit" in the chain.

Now, I'm sure that some people will disagree with my posting but remember that we are talking real money here. Think twice (at least) before shelling out money. Don't let the real estate agent put pressure on you ("Hurry up, next week the price may go up!", happened to me twice...). And the best advice I can give: Visit the place before committing yourself.


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## DUBAI

yeah, i agree a lot with what midlifecrisis has said. a lot of properties are not occuppied properly at all. money can be made if you buy in the right project. but i wouldnt expect any proper returns for 10-20 years minimum. dubai is definatly a long term investment. with the competition all arriving at once re-selling could be a loss cutter rather than an earner. im sure it will all be fine in the end, but it will take the world time to keep up. you do have to be carefull though, think of the people who bought on the palm to re sell for profit, nakheel then anounced the palm deira, and a lot of perspective customers went their insted.


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## cntower

Krazy said:


> Start bitching about not geting citizenship once you've worked for the country for alteast 10 years, speak arabic fluently and can read and write arabic, have knowledge about the UAE and its history. Just becoz you've bought property doesnt give you the right to citizenship.


Hey you bloody fool; if you've worked your ass for a decade for another country you deserve to get citizenship. You don't throw them out like crap after you done using them.

So ironic; the Arab world hates America yet when the American Businessman walks in they welcome him like they are his brother. Yet when a Pakistani walks into the country were treated like bullshit.

Thanks...thanks a million. Your city was built on our stregth and what do you have to show for it? Yeah by kicking them out...that's classy.

Close your damn topics; if your going to make a damn topic on every bloody brick on a building then it deserves to be closed...stop crying and suck it up.


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## juiced

Hello
Interesting info you have, midlifecrises. Did you know that several floors of one of the Marina towers was bought by the same guy, and he hasn't let them out to rent or sold them?
Also, the Springs was only completed around July 2004, maybe you are talking about the Gardens villas?


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## smussuw

cntower said:


> Hey you bloody fool; if you've worked your ass for a decade for another country you deserve to get citizenship. You don't throw them out like crap after you done using them.
> 
> So ironic; the Arab world hates America yet when the American Businessman walks in they welcome him like they are his brother. Yet when a Pakistani walks into the country were treated like bullshit.
> 
> Thanks...thanks a million. Your city was built on our stregth and what do you have to show for it? Yeah by kicking them out...that's classy.
> 
> Close your damn topics; if your going to make a damn topic on every bloody brick on a building then it deserves to be closed...stop crying and suck it up.



Intresting u guys like to use words like damn, suck,bullshit. Ur giving us the same tape as usual. Beside the government has said that there is not immagration and the UAE moreover no one asked u to expect a citizenship from the country. 


Give me a country that would gives its citizenship without knowing its language?


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## midlifecrisis

"Did you know that several floors of one of the Marina towers was bought by the same guy, and he hasn't let them out to rent or sold them?"

Yup, the real estate agent said something like that. He also said that most of these people have actually no clue what they bought, they just bought off plan, never visited the property and are unable to answer even the most basic questions re tiling, kitchen etc. 

Re Springs, I was told that the first phase was completed in late 2003, may be I got that wrong - which would actually worsen the case: With some houses already the paint would come off, gutters were missing and I viewed one house near a little lake where someone had forgotten to close the door to the patio, the place was full of ants.


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## cntower

smussuw said:


> Intresting u guys like to use words like damn, suck,bullshit. Ur giving us the same tape as usual. Beside the government has said that there is not immagration and the UAE moreover no one asked u to expect a citizenship from the country.
> 
> 
> Give me a country that would gives its citizenship without knowing its language?


Just because I said suck...your not going to give me a passport? Wow...that's interesting. What will it take...two suitcases full of American dollars and a few strippers?


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## juiced

midlifecrisis check your Private Messages inbox soon.
There are a lot of speculative buyers, an article I read once said it was something like 50% of people buying villas were not planning on living in them, and 70% for apartments. Pretty scary


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## DUBAI

cntower said:


> Just because I said suck...your not going to give me a passport? Wow...that's interesting. What will it take...two suitcases full of American dollars and a few strippers?


erm, theres a place for people like you... the pakistan forum.
go there, say what you like and be happy.
if you are angry, im sorry for you, but dont moan at us for having so many more threads than you, as our city is exploding.


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## smussuw

dxb_raptor said:


> erm, theres a place for people like you... the pakistan forum.
> go there, say what you like and be happy.
> if you are angry, im sorry for you, but dont moan at us for having so many more threads than you, as our city is exploding.


They even always change the subject and dont reply on the comments.


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## Krazy

cntower said:


> Hey you bloody fool


Noooo.... You're the *BLOODY FOOL!!!* Hahaha! :hilarious 



cntower said:


> if you've worked your ass for a decade for another country you deserve to get citizenship. You don't throw them out like crap after you done using them.


Even the western countries that your people are using UAE to get to (according to you not me), even these countries will kick you out after getting 30-40 years of your service, if you havent learned their language and have accepted their culture as your culture and know everything about their history, in short, America or any other country won't give you citizenship just because you've worked for them for half a century even! YOU NEED TO SPEAK FLUENTLY THEIR LANGUAGE! YOU NEED TO READ AND WRITE THEIR LANGUAGE ... BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH.... Don't you get it in one time? :weirdo: 



cntower said:


> So ironic; the Arab world hates America yet when the American Businessman walks in they welcome him like they are his brother. Yet when a Pakistani walks into the country were treated like bullshit.


First of all, when have you seen the Arabs (and by Arabs here I think you mean Emaratis) treating "Americans" good and Pakistanis bad? Yea I agree the labor might not be paid well and stuff but there are so many Pakistanis in the UAE who are even cops and CIDs !! Pakistanis are treated just like any other expats in the UAE ! I'm sorry but you'll have to come up with better than '"my people are treated like BULLSHIT" :weirdo: 



cntower said:


> Close your damn topics; if your going to make a damn topic on every bloody brick on a building then it deserves to be closed...stop crying and suck it up.


Okkkk, you really got me confused wit ur last shot... close my damn topic if Im going to make a damn topic on every bloody brick on a building... LOL.... HAHAHAHAH


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## Jay

For all of you who say "supply and demand" your obviously ignorant. Dubai is spending over half a trillon american dollars on it's projects right now. It's a city about the size of Tulsa, OK if you want to get Technical. NY and HK are taking it much slower because there is not a frenzy there to build everything, Combine NY, HK, Chicago, Philly, Toronto, Seattle, Boston and Los angeles and they are not spending NEARLY as much...all of those cities combined. 


Something bad is going to happed, and I'm worried for the people who live there, thisis serious.


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## Dubai-Lover

concerning the marina phase 1 towers

two reasons for the low occupation rate:
1) some towers have been launched and completed recently! (eg anbar tower)
2) the view! you have the feeling to live in a city which has been bombed!! construction sites everywhere!

investors and property dealers buy these immediately but it doesn't make the towers full of course. if the apartment will be handed over to the second hand, the final private user, he will watch the appartment and the area.

honestly i don't want to live in these towers now, but in 2 or 3 years it'll be heaven to live in there when everything will be finished almost simultaneously.

almost nobody is living in them, because people simply don't want to pay millions of dirhams to live in the world's largest and noisiest construction site ever!!!

you should check the reasons for the low occupation, not just judge on what you have seen!!

when people see the whole project finished and the landscaping with boulevards, malls, cafés, boardwalks will be a very desirable adress.
people will fill these towers, supported by the huge population growth!


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## ahmedr

> when people see the whole project finished and the landscaping with boulevards, malls, cafés, boardwalks will be a very desirable adress.
> people will fill these towers, supported by the huge population growth!


midlifecrisis's words were really starting to get me worried, but after what you've said I'm really convinced that this place is going to be so crowded and occupied when most of the work has been done. Very well said, Dubai_Lover. 

I'm actually starting to think that high speculation at this point is very healthy because they'll fuel the construction of the Marina very quickly until the very end until like you've said it becomes a very desirable place. Just having all the UC and approved being completed plus the landscaping will make everybody in Dubai let alone the GCC and the whole world want a part of it.


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## 2DashingCanadian

Dubai has fantastic Free trade policies!

All business are moving to Dubai -- a Tax Heavan!
The buildings will get full-- things dont just get built for nothing.
They have too much money to play around with.


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## TritaniumZ3

2DashingCanadian said:


> The buildings will get full-- things dont just get built for nothing.


if it was that easy cities would just keep on building and have companys move in to them. Then cities like Pittsburgh would never go down!


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## Qatar4Ever

Ok, ignoring that **** comments, this is a great thread. I have another question. I asked this in another forum. Lets say by 2010 Dubai's population will increase to about 5 million. Thats around four or so folds from today. Are there any serious plans like where you'll recurit the police force to protect such a big city. Will there be enough fire fighters and fire stations. What about schools and hosptials ? all these ppl coming in dont just need a villa and a golf course. theyll need other services like security, schooling, hospitals and so on. All developments in dubai are commerical. 

Again, what about the lower income and mid income expats. Im sure they cant afford a place at marina or the meadows or the like. Im guessing around 40 % if not more of dubai will be low paid workers, where will they live, what kind of facilities will they have.. this might create "ghetto" in dubai.


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## Emir of Ketir

*Hello everyone!*

My debut posting on Skyscraper city 

Hmm, it is getting a bit dizzy in Dubai. I have just read the press release of the Dubai Waterfront development and I was wondering.

What is the ratio behind the latest moves? I will attempt some analysis. I thought a posting would be most suitable in this thread.

*- Game theory: * Competition of mega real estate projects in the region is stiff. Maybe the intention is to create entry barriers to the market just by announcing projects that no-one else in the region could possibly put together thereby foiling attempts of other countries to even attempt putting up more competition. I think this is a key strategic reason. Whether projects like Business Bay and Dubai Waterfront will go ahead in that magnitude is not of an issue at this point. The fact that Dubai only wants to sell 49% ownership stakes in Dubai Waterfront confirms the game theory argument, since everyone knows that investors are reluctant to invest in such ownership spreads, since 100% ownership exists.

*- The high oil prices.* The region still benefits from high liquidity. Still. For how long will that be the case? No-one really knows. So why not absorb this high liquidity while its still in the market by announcing projects that may become physical in about 4-5 years.

*- Dubai government needs money to finance the current projects. * 
I think this is another key reason. For the moment these mega projects are just fairy tales which are playing on people's dreams and fantasies. What is actually being sold is land, dessert land, which the ruling family owns. Of course these pieces of dessert land are then super-charged with Nakheel-style marketing and Sheilkh Mohammed announcing them, does add a lot of value to dessert sand. So when the first phase of Dubai Business Bay was sold out for 4bn. Dirhams in early January'05, it was 4bn. in the coffers of Dubai government, money they probably need to finance current infrastructure.

*Is Dubai property market going to crash? * 
I doubt it will be a crash. Rather a soft landing. Dubai's property market is not a free market as we know it around the world. The big companies such as Nakheel and Emaar are essentially still government companies and despite an apparent huge supply coming on to the market, if one looks closer, this supply is still carefully managed. Take Jumeirah Beach Residence at Dubai Marina - 30% of it was suddenly reserved for civil servants, take The Palm, Deira, whose sales are not going as well as anticipated by Nakheel. Suddenly, Mohammed announces civil servants should be treated with preference, meaning they probably get discounts. Therefore essentially a public housing scheme. Of course, there are only so many civil servants. Dubai needs to add more depth to its economy,to attract more 1st home buyers to settle. For 2nd home buyers, Dubai needs to develop its cultural offerings - that means annual film festivals, music festivals, opera houses, theatres, musicals, art galleries, more concerts of local, regional and international music superstars. I think the latter is key to attract 2nd home buyers.

I anticipate that rents will remain stable, maybe fall slightly, but the government will not let the market crash. The rent income generated is the central source of income of the Emirates Nationals. If this rent income suddenly breaks away, social unrest is on the agenda and the entire leadership would be at question. What I anticipate is that if Dubai doesn't attract the masses of foreigners, who live there permanetlly or temporarily you may see '000 of finished residential units empty and the government may even provide buy-back options to their own nationals - they will have to keep their people happy.


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## juiced

Emir of Ketir said:


> ^
> 
> Yep, this comes out of the reputed german F.A.Z. daily, one of the most conservative papers in Germany and the quote came from an NAKHEEL official, can't remember the name though.
> 
> Rumours from my local UAE friends say that annother reason to launch Dubai Waterfront was definitley to increase the value proposition of The Palm, Jebel Ali, whose sales have not been going as well as stated in the media (who can only base figures on what NAKHEEL says).


If that rumour is true, maybe we might hear of a 'Dubai Waterfront'-like project being launched around the Palm Deira, which is doing really badly in sales figures.


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## Dubai-Lover

hard to imagine, as the dubai waterfront needed 2 years to be developed on the drawing boards and stuff!

ok, they can exaggerate with saying it took us 2 years to finalise plans, but such a project needs time to be developed, you can't do that overnight


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## juiced

Dubai-Lover said:


> such a project needs time to be developed, you can't do that overnight


Tis Dubai mate, where dreams and the unimaginable come true  :lol:


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## Emir of Ketir

Dubai-Lover said:


> hard to imagine, as the dubai waterfront needed 2 years to be developed on the drawing boards and stuff!
> 
> ok, they can exaggerate with saying it took us 2 years to finalise plans, but such a project needs time to be developed, you can't do that overnight


Apparently the project Dubai Waterfront was brought forward. As to The Palm, Deira, completion is miles away, whereas the Jebel Ali is already within reach.


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## Tom_Green

juiced said:


> If that rumour is true, maybe we might hear of a 'Dubai Waterfront'-like project being launched around the Palm Deira, which is doing really badly in sales figures.


It seams that Dubais development reaching the limit of the potential costumers.
They should build the building that are under construction and after 2 years of low growing the boom can go on.


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## Emir of Ketir

Emir of Ketir said:


> For 2nd home buyers, Dubai needs to develop its cultural offerings - that means annual film festivals, music festivals, opera houses, theatres, musicals, art galleries, more concerts of local, regional and international music superstars. I think the latter is key to attract 2nd home buyers.


This is what Dubai needs in the next couple of years to attract non-GCC residents to invest. Prerequisite is of course the amendment of the federal law to allow foreigners to own property. And the quick completion of anchor attractions such as Atlantis, Dubailand and Ski slopes.


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## SkyFan

Does any one know how much are the GCC investments and total foriegn investments in Dubai?


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## Dubai-Lover

that's pretty much actually
at the moment (projects under c and approved) it's around 2.000.000.000.000 dollars, yes 2 trillion dollars

just sum up the investments of dubai's projects and start with these
dubailand $100bn dollars
business bay $75bn
.....


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## juiced

Dubai-Lover said:


> that's pretty much actually
> at the moment (projects under c and approved) it's around 2.000.000.000.000 dollars, yes 2 trillion dollars
> 
> just sum up the investments of dubai's projects and start with these
> dubailand $100bn dollars
> business bay $75bn
> .....


Mere pocket change


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## Tom_Green

Dubai-Lover said:


> 2.000.000.000.000 dollars, yes 2 trillion dollars


This is as much as the whole BSP of Germany the 3rd largest economy on this planet.
Sounds a little bit too high ^^


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## Dubai-Lover

maybe you mix it up, because in germany we say billion for trillion!

in german we would say: die investitionen liegen bei 2 billionen dollar
in english it's: investments being made are about 2 trillion dollars


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## Tom_Green

Dubai-Lover said:


> maybe you mix it up, because in germany we say billion for trillion!
> 
> in german we would say: die investitionen liegen bei 2 billionen dollar
> in english it's: investments being made are about 2 trillion dollars


Yes i know this.
Therefore i wrote as much as, because it is the same sum.

The investment sum in Dubai is as high as the BSP of Germany.


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## AltinD

Dubai-Lover said:


> maybe you mix it up, because in germany we say billion for trillion!
> 
> in german we would say: die investitionen liegen bei 2 billionen dollar
> in english it's: investments being made are about 2 trillion dollars


1 Trillion = 1000 Billion so it's not the same thing.


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## SkyFan

Dubai-Lover said:


> that's pretty much actually
> at the moment (projects under c and approved) it's around 2.000.000.000.000 dollars, yes 2 trillion dollars
> 
> just sum up the investments of dubai's projects and start with these
> dubailand $100bn dollars
> business bay $75bn
> .....


2 trillion dollars of approved projects!
So, did the Dubail Land approved projects reacfh 100 billions already?


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## Dubai-Lover

no, all project investments of dubailand will top the $100bn


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## Mr Man

$2,000,000,000,000.00

Is that emirati dirham or united states dollars?


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## Jue

Probably dirham; I do not remember Dubailand costing USD$100 billion.

$2 trillion is improbable. A crapload of construction goes on here and China's GDP is only $1.6 trillion.


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## Dubai-Lover

just sum up all investment costs for projects approved and under c

eg, a dubailand project costs abut $3bn in average and there are 240 of them!!!! and it was said in news articles the investment costs will top the $100bn

then take all the artificial islands, in which some $150bn to $200bn will be invested

don't forget about
dubai marina
jlt
burj dubai complex
international city
lost city
jumeirah village
jumeirah horizon
jebel ali port & freezone
emirates living
airport city!!!!!!!
airport expansion
infrastructure!!!!!!!
investment park
discovery gardens
dubai international financial centre
festival city
maritime city
media city
internet city
arabian ranches
silicon oasis
academic city
dubai pearl
zabeel park
hydropolis
mall of the emirateas
gardens mall
the gardens
dmcc
sheikh zayed road development
dubai metro
corniche redevelopment
mall expansions

that's what comes into my mind right now


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## juiced

Dubai-Lover said:


> just sum up all investment costs for projects approved and under c
> 
> eg, a dubailand project costs abut $3bn in average and there are 240 of them!!!! and it was said in news articles the investment costs will top the $100bn
> 
> then take all the artificial islands, in which some $150bn to $200bn will be invested
> 
> don't forget about
> dubai marina
> jlt
> burj dubai complex
> international city
> lost city
> jumeirah village
> jumeirah horizon
> jebel ali port & freezone
> emirates living
> airport city!!!!!!!
> airport expansion
> infrastructure!!!!!!!
> investment park
> discovery gardens
> dubai international financial centre
> festival city
> maritime city
> media city
> internet city
> arabian ranches
> silicon oasis
> academic city
> dubai pearl
> zabeel park
> hydropolis
> mall of the emirateas
> gardens mall
> the gardens
> dmcc
> sheikh zayed road development
> dubai metro
> corniche redevelopment
> mall expansions
> 
> that's what comes into my mind right now



HEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

where's Jumeirah Islands????????? 
:jk:


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## Dubai-Lover

yes, i just listed down whateva came into my mind
ooops, forgot another billion $ project


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