# How will Shenzhen develop in the next 10-20 years?



## czm3 (Dec 4, 2004)

Kuesel said:


> Shenzhen as all the boomtowns in China will implode and collapse ecologically, socially and econmically, sorry...


Way to troll it up Kuesel... hno: 

At least back up your inflametory statements.


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## Küsel (Sep 16, 2004)

Why are you all bashing me only because I take an opposite point of view - EXACTLY because everyone is so optimistic about it? And as a European I for sure don't have the news from CNN or Fox, come on!! But yes, I have several freinds over in China working for big international companies or European Newspapers. It has absolutly nothing to do with jealousy, but with facts: IF there are no very fast changements in politics, social and environmental laws China will face very difficult and hard times! It IS a fact that international companies already have a bigger eye on India and especially in the future Pakistan and Vietnam. China is quite out of ballance - and it's NOT that I support it. I myself was very pleased to see the rising of the dragon and as many western Europeans even saw it as a chance for a final proper rivalty to the US (that's a stupid kind of real jealousy, I know ) in the end 90s. But things changed in a very bad direction because the changing was too fast. Also don't forget that it is still a very tough oligarchic government system. If THIS will lose control China will face a balkanization as well.

So WHY everyone only accepts POSTIVE comments here? I personally hope that the whole Pearl River Delta will fortify itself as a strong and independent nation and it will become a second and MUCH BIGGER Singapore! That's it.


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## Cristovão471 (May 9, 2006)

Will these be some street scapes of Shenzen 2030+ ?:


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## mememe (Jun 18, 2007)

Kuesel said:


> Why are you all bashing me only because I take an opposite point of view - EXACTLY because everyone is so optimistic about it? And as a European I for sure don't have the news from CNN or Fox, come on!! But yes, I have several freinds over in China working for big international companies or European Newspapers. It has absolutly nothing to do with jealousy, but with facts: IF there are no very fast changements in politics, social and environmental laws China will face very difficult and hard times! It IS a fact that international companies already have a bigger eye on India and especially in the future Pakistan and Vietnam. China is quite out of ballance - and it's NOT that I support it. I myself was very pleased to see the rising of the dragon and as many western Europeans even saw it as a chance for a final proper rivalty to the US (that's a stupid kind of real jealousy, I know ) in the end 90s. But things changed in a very bad direction because the changing was too fast. Also don't forget that it is still a very tough oligarchic government system. If THIS will lose control China will face a balkanization as well.
> 
> So WHY everyone only accepts POSTIVE comments here? I personally hope that the whole Pearl River Delta will fortify itself as a strong and independent nation and it will become a second and MUCH BIGGER Singapore! That's it.



Sir thank you for your concerns about China. China is doing a lot to improve the pollution, the government is punishing those companiese that release excessive pollutions.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/15/content_5435252.htm
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/15/content_5435250.htm


And It IS fact that China is taking pollution problem more seriously than any other big polluters, China is the world's LARGEST investor of green energy, the government is even telling people to stop buying cars, luxurious sedans and push harder for research and development of green fuel for cars like the internal hydrogen combustion engine.And I think someone already made a thread about that.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=489465


And about political party, the communist party grip on power is slowly weakening, the party is now afraid of the people's voice, they now listen to the people more.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2124176,00.html

It is also fact that China still remains as the world's top destination for FDI, and the FDI is showing no signs of slowing down and still increases a lot year by year.

I don't think China is interested in rivalling the USA or whatsoever, all China wants is her people to have decent lives, and restore her glorious past. So doing economically well and creating wealth for her people is seen as rivalling the USA ??

If Europe does not like America then I think that is the issue between the USA and Europe, it has nothing to do with China and China always sticks to its stance "no interfering with foreign internal affairs" and "mind your own business" .

Thank you for reading

I really appreciate your concerns.


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## feverwin (Feb 25, 2006)

Kuesel said:


> Why are you all bashing me only because I take an opposite point of view - EXACTLY because everyone is so optimistic about it? And as a European I for sure don't have the news from CNN or Fox, come on!! But yes, I have several freinds over in China working for big international companies or European Newspapers. It has absolutly nothing to do with jealousy, but with facts: IF there are no very fast changements in politics, social and environmental laws China will face very difficult and hard times! It IS a fact that international companies already have a bigger eye on India and especially in the future Pakistan and Vietnam. China is quite out of ballance - and it's NOT that I support it. I myself was very pleased to see the rising of the dragon and as many western Europeans even saw it as a chance for a final proper rivalty to the US (that's a stupid kind of real jealousy, I know ) in the end 90s. But things changed in a very bad direction because the changing was too fast. Also don't forget that it is still a very tough oligarchic government system. If THIS will lose control China will face a balkanization as well.
> 
> So WHY everyone only accepts POSTIVE comments here? I personally hope that the whole Pearl River Delta will fortify itself as a strong and independent nation and it will become a second and MUCH BIGGER Singapore! That's it.


Why it makes me feel that, you are telling me independence is good, is the only hope to get richer??? Is this the experience you get from Europe? So why they become union again? Can't China in a whole become a MUCH MUCH BIGGER Singapore? :bash:


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

I doubt there are seeds to sow an independence movement in the Pearl River Delta. The focus among Chinese is to rise above poverty. Hence, rapid economic development will continue. People's lives have improved substantially in the past 20 years since the economic reforms, although there is now a huge gap between the rich and the poor. As a result, the government is trying to entice development dollars moving further inland to the poorer regions away from the affluent coast.

There are already rumblings that some of the low-cost manufacturing plants in the Pearl River Delta are likely to move further west to even cheaper areas, or even out of China entirely to other low-cost countries such as Vietnam. 

At this point, stability is key. The government wants a favourable investment climate so they will do whatever it takes to keep the stability in place. Shenzhen's role has changed as well since it became a SEZ. A decade ago, they were trying to copy Hong Kong's strategy, which didn't work out too well. Now, they're looking into reinforcing what they're good at - ports - and have done very well. 

However, Shenzhen's location itself is both a good and a bad thing. It leveraged its location being next to Hong Kong to thrive, yet it is squeezed between Hong Kong and Guangzhou, the two prominent cities in the Pearl River Delta. It'll be very hard to carve a niche in the region for many other industries with these two giants intercepting inbound and outbound flows.


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## EricIsHim (Jun 16, 2003)

hkskyline said:


> There are already rumblings that some of the low-cost manufacturing plants in the Pearl River Delta are likely to move further west to even cheaper areas, or even out of China entirely to other low-cost countries such as Vietnam.


A few weeks ago, TVB had a news documentary about factories moving away from Shenzhen and the PRD back into Hong Kong or other developing countries. One reason is the rising labour cost, as well as the rising value of Chinese Yuan. Both factors is lowering the direct profit to the company and encouraging factories to move out of China entirely. Second, government profit and property tax are increasing where HK becomes more competitive relatively. Third, the brand of "Made In Hong Kong" is more valuable than "Made In China" both nationally and internationally. Plus under the CEPA, Hong Kong products can be imported into the mainland duty free, a very positive encouragement. Forth, the environmental restriction is getting more restrictive in the mainland, but also unclear that investors are afraid to get in the policy grey area and rather move out. 

In 20 years, Shenzhen probably will become a city less focusing in manufacturing, especially in the low-tech labour-intensive sector like HK has gone through in the last two decades.



hkskyline said:


> However, Shenzhen's location itself is both a good and a bad thing. It leveraged its location being next to Hong Kong to thrive, yet it is squeezed between Hong Kong and Guangzhou, the two prominent cities in the Pearl River Delta. It'll be very hard to carve a niche in the region for many other industries with these two giants intercepting inbound and outbound flows.


The logistic sector of Shenzhen can definitely beat Guangzhou. Shenzhen is not far from Guangzhou and has a very similar railway and highway network to other part of the country as GZ does. It is a tie on land infrastructure. But Guangzhou doesn't have the deep waterway to accommodate the large container ships. Shenzhen ports is winning HK over the cost; but HK is winning over the efficiency today. As Shenzhen ports improve their software, I think the Shenzhen container ports will remain very competitive to HK and may even take over the role of HK even when the labour costs level up. In fact, Shenzhen has the railway and highway network and broaderless that HK doesn't. 

SZ will have the standard of living as HK and GZ one day, but I do believe SZ will still live under the shadow of HK and GZ in short and long term as everyone will find their way to grow and SZ is always behind the others two.


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

Yes, I saw that documentary as well. However, I doubt this return is sustainable, since the high cost of manufacturing in Hong Kong is significant and unless the end-products are going to more brand-conscious paying customers, I don't expect what's in the Gap or H&M to switch to 'Made in Hong Kong' any time soon.

Besides, we need to move up the value chain. Bringing back $10k/month jobs is not very worthwhile when our cost base requires at least $20k/month to support a family decently.

While Shenzhen may have a port advantage, it will not be the same for airfreight, which is more lucrative. Guangzhou has the large catchment area to support international connectivity, so Shenzhen will still be marginalized as a smaller domestic airport, an alternative for Hong Kong and a back up for Guangzhou. At this point, Hong Kong is advantageous since it has the international routes. I expect that advantage to get smaller as Guangzhou develops, and that is not necessarily a bad thing either. A city of their size should be able to sustain that kind of traffic.


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## duskdawn (May 13, 2006)

Shen Zhen and Hong Kong will be merged to Shen Kong, but probably beyond 10-20 years. lol


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## Pax Sinica (Dec 10, 2005)

^^ The death of "One Country, Two Systems"


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## duskdawn (May 13, 2006)

^^ You don't expect it forever do you?


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## EricIsHim (Jun 16, 2003)

^^It'll live 'til at least 2047 technically.


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## duskdawn (May 13, 2006)

^^ Yes it should be according to the Basic Law. But things change what if the mainland transforms to the same system as Hong Kong before that? That's 40 years anything might happen and that is also why I said it might be "beyond 20 years".


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## EricIsHim (Jun 16, 2003)

duskdawn said:


> ^^ Yes it should be according to the Basic Law. But things change what if the mainland transforms to the same system as Hong Kong before that? That's 40 years anything might happen and that is also why I said it might be "beyond 20 years".


Well, the standard of living and the government system may become the same. The two cities may merge economically; but for sure the political boundary will still be around; people will still need a visa to visit either side; HK will still drive on the left side of the road etc. etc.


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

*The richest village in China? *
29 June 2007
Financial Times

Long before it morphed into a city of 10m and became China's largest municipal exporter, Shenzhen - as the cliche has it - was a "sleepy fishing village" on Hong Kong's northern border. 

In 1980 Shenzhen comprised two towns - the largest of which had a population of 20,000 people - and 15 former communes. The "village" so many people remember is Fishermen's Village, or Yumin Cun, a small rural hamlet situated on the banks of the Shenzhen river just a few hundred yards west of the Lo Wu border station. 

Like Shenzhen, Yumin Cun has changed beyond recognition. 

From a collection of huts it has gone upscale. Yumin Cun is now a gated community in downtown Shenzhen, occupying some of the most expensive land in China. Its transformation captures in microcosm Shenzhen's own shift from agricultural backwater to industrial powerhouse whose emergence made possible Hong Kong's reinvention from a manufacturing hub to global financial services centre. 

Initially, the village's proximity to Hong Kong was a liability. In the 1950s a one-metre high fence was constructed, separating villagers from the river they fished to supplement meagre agricultural incomes. 

As the Cultural Revolution's lunatic excesses fuelled a new wave of emigration to Hong Kong, the fence was fortified. "They made it two metres high," says Huang Xingyan, who grew up in the village. "I remember watching thousands of people running across the border." Among them were residents of Yumin Cun. Mr Huang estimates that half of all villagers aged 40 or above now live in Hong Kong. 

The villagers' luck changed on August 26 1980, when the central government formally designated Shenzhen one of four new special economic zones. Their village was in the right place at the right time, occupying a prime piece of land around which downtown Shenzhen would develop. 

They also benefited from a distinction between rural land, which is owned collectively by villagers, and state-owned urban land. 

When seven Hong Kong factories opened in the village in 1979, their rents flowed back to the residents of Yumin Cun. By 1981 it was reckoned to be China's richest village - a distinction that led to a visit from Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China's reform and opening, in 1984. 

That occasion is memorialised in a series of bronze panels depicting different stages of the village's development over the past 50 years. 

In the early years of the 21st century, the people of Yumin Cun discovered a more lucrative sideline - high-end property development. Single-family homes were torn down and replaced with apartment blocks. 

Like Hong Kong tycoons who occupy penthouses at the top of their developments, village families live in upper floor units and rent out lower ones. Even simple dormitory buildings, used by the villagers as temporary accommodation during construction of their new homes, have been let to poor migrants who have flocked to Shenzhen. 

In total, 191 villagers collect rents from 3,800 outsiders who have taken up residence. Each village family can collect as much as Rmb25,000 (Dollars 3,245) a month from their communally-owned property company, Shenzhen Yu Feng Property Management. 

In addition, about 100 villagers own shares in the community's main holding company, Shenzhen Yu Feng Industrial Development Co, which manages factories in neighbouring Dongguan. According to Mr Huang, deputy general manager of Yu Feng Industrial, the company had revenues of Rmb7m last year and paid a dividend of Rmb1.5m.


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## YohIMhER (Jul 7, 2007)

i share the same concern as Kuesel, not so much economically, but ecologically. and i am aware of that fact that chinese government is trying its best to invest in sustainable energy and to live green, but we all know chinese government, being as big as it is, is very inefficient, many of the minor to medium officials are not very well educated and have a weakness with bribe. tho the top officials are willing and determine to make positive changes, the orders are unlikely to carried to the local level. 
in my opinion, political reform is necessary for china to fully enjoy its economic success.
i really appreciate Kuesel for offering an alternative view, however unlikely it is. i for one, prefer bad news more than good news, when there aren't anything bad, something is really really wrong.


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## hkskyline (Sep 13, 2002)

YohIMhER said:


> i share the same concern as Kuesel, not so much economically, but ecologically. and i am aware of that fact that chinese government is trying its best to invest in sustainable energy and to live green, but we all know chinese government, being as big as it is, is very inefficient, many of the minor to medium officials are not very well educated and have a weakness with bribe. tho the top officials are willing and determine to make positive changes, the orders are unlikely to carried to the local level.
> in my opinion, political reform is necessary for china to fully enjoy its economic success.
> i really appreciate Kuesel for offering an alternative view, however unlikely it is. i for one, prefer bad news more than good news, when there aren't anything bad, something is really really wrong.


Timing is more important. China's problems were the same as the West's problems when they industrialized. Back then, there was no such thing as accountable government or sustainable development either, and later cleanup was able to restore a lot of what was damaged. They key is for Western investors not to repeat their mistakes abroad.


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