# Dubai, Shenzen, New York City - who's next to boom?



## droneriot (Apr 1, 2008)

Dubai had been making major headlines in supertalls for quite a while, before the global financial crisis there were projects after projects. After its sudden downturn, all the eyes were on Shenzen, with new threads popping up in proposed supertalls seemingly weekly. That seems to have died down, a little as well. But for a while now the undisputed (except by Chicagoans) home of skyscrapers has been experiencing a massive boom, with new proposals and construction popping up at a jaw dropping rate.

Regardless of how well the NYC boom is going to hold up, what city do you think is most realistic to experience a boom of supertalls next? 

For me, there are two things I noticed. First, apparently completely off the radar of most people, including mine for the most part, there actually seem to be quite a few supertall proposals in Kuala Lumpur. If all of these are built, that would actually be quite an impressive number of supertalls coming up. Second, those of us who check the skyscrapers forum in world development news probably all noticed that Jakarta absolutely dominates the place. Matter of time before it starts to go above 300m on a massive scale?


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## Yohja (Feb 22, 2014)

One thing to note is that there are many more posters from SEA than from China, which skews our perspective on the relative "boom" of each region. Many projects in Chinese cities get no updates on SSC.


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## Pals_RGB (Apr 1, 2013)

> Second, those of us who check the skyscrapers forum in world development news probably all noticed that Jakarta absolutely dominates the place. Matter of time before it starts to go above 300m on a massive scale?


I have counted the number of projects and it turns out Jakarta has around 35-36 skyscrapers either u/c, prep, app or proposed. Not sure how it is dominating that section.


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## TheIllinoisan (Sep 1, 2015)

droneriot said:


> Dubai had been making major headlines in supertalls for quite a while, before the global financial crisis there were projects after projects. After its sudden downturn, all the eyes were on Shenzen, with new threads popping up in proposed supertalls seemingly weekly. That seems to have died down, a little as well. But for a while now the undisputed (except by Chicagoans) home of skyscrapers has been experiencing a massive boom, with new proposals and construction popping up at a jaw dropping rate.
> 
> Regardless of how well the NYC boom is going to hold up, what city do you think is most realistic to experience a boom of supertalls next?
> 
> For me, there are two things I noticed. First, apparently completely off the radar of most people, including mine for the most part, there actually seem to be quite a few supertall proposals in Kuala Lumpur. If all of these are built, that would actually be quite an impressive number of supertalls coming up. Second, those of us who check the skyscrapers forum in world development news probably all noticed that Jakarta absolutely dominates the place. Matter of time before it starts to go above 300m on a massive scale?


Considering the skyscraper was invented in Chicago, its pretty easy to dispute the last sentence of your first paragraph, Chicagoan or not.


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## ed500 (Jun 2, 2011)

Here's the cities with the most skyscrapers (150m+) U/C, info from CTBUH.

Shenyang 65
Shenzhen 47
Mumbai 45
Chongqing 43
New York 37
Chengdu 29
Jakarta 26
Toronto 26
Dubai 23
Tianjin 23


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## saiho (Jun 28, 2009)

Pals_RGB said:


> I have counted the number of projects and it turns out Jakarta has around 35-36 skyscrapers either u/c, prep, app or proposed. Not sure how it is dominating that section.


Skyscapercity has a very active SEA community so updates are skewed towards those areas. My money is on Shenzhen even with CTBUH missing skyscrapers that are U/C it really dominates the U/C list.


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## lowenmeister (Oct 1, 2012)

Shenzhen currently has 59,200m+ tower completed or to according to gaoloumi,Considering construction has just begun on Qianhai and Shenwan station and that the luohu government is looking to accelerate redevelopment in that district this year we might see a massive increase in skyscrapers there too(caiwuwei redevelopment,china resources Hubei village redevelopment,Luohu hotel redevelopment )

two contenders are Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur, I think Jakarta will come out on top in the long run because its metro population is 4 times larger(Jakarta 30 million+ to Kuala Lumpurs 7 million),and growing faster too and will thus require a larger skyline.


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## Dubai_Boy (May 21, 2003)

TheIllinoisan said:


> Considering the skyscraper was invented in Chicago, its pretty easy to dispute the last sentence of your first paragraph, Chicagoan or not.


The Modern Skyscraper yes


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## Pals_RGB (Apr 1, 2013)

ed500 said:


> Here's the cities with the most skyscrapers (150m+) U/C, info from CTBUH.
> 
> Shenyang 65
> Shenzhen 47
> ...


Mumbai alone has 180+ buildings currently u/c whose height are 150m+.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=1234


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## BrickellResidence (Feb 4, 2008)

Mexico City has 29 +150m U/C or Prep and 2 supertalls in Prep and another one in proposal (Construction to begin this year)


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## DubaiM (Nov 10, 2013)

Dubai will remain the leading city of supertalls in the future. 
There are currently 18 completed supertalls in Dubai and 18 further are either proposed, topped out or under construction. This adds up to a number of 36 supertalls by 2025.

In comparison: New York has currently 7 completed supertalls. Even though 21 more are proposed or under construction, the city will not beat Dubai with a total amount of 28 supertalls by 2025.


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## hunser (Nov 25, 2008)

^ Yes, Dubai will stay ahead re: #supertalls. 

New York supertalls:

Completed: 7
Under construction: 9
On hold: 1
In Prep: 5
Proposed: ~20

So my guess is 25 - 30 supertalls by 2025, depending on further demand and U.S. economy.


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## totaleclipse1985 (Dec 6, 2013)

Shenzhen could beat Dubai in supertalls in the future - but only if it can keep it's momentum. According to zOrgs list Shenzhen had 82 proposed supertalls in 2014.


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## Dito Roso (Apr 26, 2010)

Data from CTBUH :



























source: The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/year-in-review/2015

I think, Jakarta will still be in the top rankings for 2016 in terms of completion of the buildings above 200 meters. Here is a list of skyscraper projects 200+ meter will be completed in 2016, as caught by my own radar 

1. *Gama Tower* (289 m)
2. *Capital Place* (218 m)
3. *Telkom Landmark* (219 m) 
4. *SOHO @PC* (200+ m) 
5. *IFC 2* (235 m) 
6. *The Tower* (211 m) 
7. *Eternity* (205 m) 
8. *Infinity* (205 m)

For subsequent years will continue popping up skyscrapers in Jakarta. Here's a list of skyscrapers projects that are likely to be completed in *2017* and *2018* (currently in U/C stage) :

01. *Menara ASTRA* (270 m)
02. *World Capital Tower* (222 m)
03. *District 8 Office Tower* (280 m)
04. *Sequis Tower* (211 m)
05. *Casa Domaine 1* (213 m)
06. *Casa Domaine 2* (208 m)
07. *PCPD* (+200 m)
08. *Anandamaya 1* (+200 m)
09. *Anandamaya 2* (+200 m)
10. *Anandamaya 3* (+200 m)
11. *ICON 2* (200+ m)
12. *Menara Kompas* (200+ m)
13. *ICON 1* (350 m)
14. *Indonesia Satu 1* (303 m)
15. *Indonesia Satu 2* (303 m)
16. *Thamrin Nine 2* (200+ m)
17. *Thamrin Nine 1* (330 m)


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## totaleclipse1985 (Dec 6, 2013)

@Dito Roso:

I agree with you that Jakarta has huge potential as it is the largest primary city in the world and located in the largest country with a primary city in the world. If Indonesias economic and developmental trends continue, Jakarta has the chance to rank in the top 10 in the long term.


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## Manitopiaaa (Mar 6, 2006)

New York has the momentum. Shenzhen and Dubai are both feeling the pinch or their national economies. China is facing a stock market crisis and decelerating growth. And Dubai is facing less oil receipts (though it's way more diversified than nearby Abu Dhabi).


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## totaleclipse1985 (Dec 6, 2013)

According to preliminary data Shenzhen grew with 8.9% in 2015. It's the financial capital of southern China and China's "silicon valley". Nothing short of a total disruption of China's economy and its decent into recession could break Shenzhen's momentum (in the near term).


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## lowenmeister (Oct 1, 2012)

Will New York or Shenzhen be the first city to reach 100,200m+ skyscrapers?

According to gaoloumi Shenzhen has 60,200m+ buildings completed or TO,200m+ under construction and under preparations number 132 more,for a total of 192,200m+ skyscrapers in a not to far off future. This figure does not include all proposals


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## Uaarkson (Feb 11, 2009)

Two things:

1) China's skyscraper boom will be coming to a halt, either soon or in the coming years.

2) NYC will continue to maximize heights with a lack of buildable land. But it won't ever match Chinese cities in raw numbers without massive rezoning of entire portions of the 5 boroughs.


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## Faisal Shourov (Jan 6, 2013)

Mumbai and Kuala Lumpur will have the next big boom. Kuala Lumpur's will be more rapid but short lived. Shenzhen has definitely cooled down in 2015, it was absolutely monstrous in 2013 and 2014. Dubai has already matured into a world city and it doesn't need any more boom. 

Given the huge population, Mumbai definitely has the most potential in the long run.


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## totaleclipse1985 (Dec 6, 2013)

Uaarkson said:


> Two things:
> 
> 1) China's skyscraper boom will be coming to a halt, either soon or in the coming years.
> 
> 2) NYC will continue to maximize heights with a lack of buildable land. But it won't ever match Chinese cities in raw numbers without massive rezoning of entire portions of the 5 boroughs.


to 1) China will move 300million people into cities over the next 15 years. There will be no stop to skyscraper building any time soon - perhaps in super high end signature projects if the economy cools but not a halt of construction in the 200s range.

to 2) the same is true for Shenzhen - it is "sandwiched" between HK, Dongguan, Huizhou and the Pearl River. Every new piece of buildable land has to be created either by costly redevelopment of by costly reclamation from the Pearl River or by the even costlier leveling of entire small mountains.


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## DUBAI10000 (Dec 27, 2014)

ed500 ^^^ Fed us the biggest bowl of shit I have ever seen in my life. According to him CTBUH published this.
Shenyang 65
Shenzhen 47
Mumbai 45
Chongqing 43
New York 37
Chengdu 29
Jakarta 26
Toronto 26
Dubai 23
Tianjin 23
Dubai has 100's of 150 meter plus buildings not 23. Matter of fact by 2020 it will have more than 23 completed supertalls. Also New York city has around 260 150 Meter Plus Buildings. Also notice that his list doesn't even include Hong Kong which has more 150 Meter Plus buildings than any other city in the world.
Here is CTBUH's Real List
1Hong Kong 373 
2 New York City United States 260 
3 Dubai 180 
4 Shanghai 135 
5 Chicago 117 
6 Tokyo 116 
7 Chongqing China 103 
8 Guangzhou China 98 
9 Jakarta Indonesia 88 
10 Singapore 74 
Shenzen China 74 
12 Shenyang China 73 
13 Chengdu China 70 
Seoul 70 
15 Metro Manila 57 
Mumbai 57 
17 Bangkok 51 
Tianjin China Tianjin Skyline 51 
19 Busan South Korea Busan 48 
20 Kuala Lumpur 47
NOTE THAT THIS LIST WAS FROM LIKE 2012.


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## DUBAI10000 (Dec 27, 2014)

I Believe Shenzhen China will stay strong with growth and construction and I believe after Hudson Yards and Nordstrom Tower, 111 West 57th St is all built there will be a big low in New York City Development. I also think Dubai will continue to build at a steady but slower pace in the future, meaning more 150 meter buildings and less 400 meter buildings. I also think we are going to see a big boom in South Eastern Asian Cities such as Jakarta and Bangkok.


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## totaleclipse1985 (Dec 6, 2013)

DUBAI10000 said:


> ed500 ^^^ Fed us the biggest bowl of shit I have ever seen in my life. According to him CTBUH published this.
> Shenyang 65
> Shenzhen 47
> Mumbai 45
> ...


His list was for buildings UC right now - not total number. Perhaps you would like to read people's postings carefully before calling them "pile of shit" in the future ^^


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## Jay (Oct 7, 2004)

I actually think (and hope) Chicago will soon come back in the game, a boom is on it's way and overdue although I don't think it will compete with cities like NYC or a few Asian ones.


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## saiho (Jun 28, 2009)

totaleclipse1985 said:


> to 2) the same is true for Shenzhen - it is "sandwiched" between HK, Dongguan, Huizhou and the Pearl River. Every new piece of buildable land has to be created either by costly redevelopment of by costly reclamation from the Pearl River or by the even costlier leveling of entire small mountains.


Shenzhen is actually more tight on land than New York is. Also, Shenzhen is a pressure release valve for Hong Kong. Right now the Hong Kong property market is a pressure cooker. There so much demand but there is no literally place the put it.


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## geoking66 (Jun 27, 2006)

Jay said:


> I actually think (and hope) Chicago will soon come back in the game, a boom is on it's way and overdue although I don't think it will compete with cities like NYC or a few Asian ones.


Chicago's issue is that its local economy is relatively anaemic. It has one of the lowest population and job growth rates of any large city in the US and corporations are moving out of Illinois due to cost, regulatory and demographic reasons. While the core remains stronger, the level of investment and economic viability in the long-term is a little more shaky.


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## Number5 (Jan 25, 2016)

geoking66 said:


> Chicago's issue is that its local economy is relatively anaemic. It has one of the lowest population and job growth rates of any large city in the US and corporations are moving out of Illinois due to cost, regulatory and demographic reasons. While the core remains stronger, the level of investment and economic viability in the long-term is a little more shaky.


Thats mostly false. And it is loosing poverty level people, and picking up six figure people, so yeah. 

Its biggest problem is shit tons of flat land to build things going on for miles. The biggest limiter causing higher prices is wanting waterfront access, but there are miles of coast to build on.

However, parking lots are getting filled in rapidly. Prices could start to spike once the last few are used up.


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## Jay (Oct 7, 2004)

Number5 said:


> Thats mostly false. And it is loosing poverty level people, and picking up six figure people, so yeah.
> 
> Its biggest problem is shit tons of flat land to build things going on for miles. The biggest limiter causing higher prices is wanting waterfront access, but there are miles of coast to build on.
> 
> However, parking lots are getting filled in rapidly. Prices could start to spike once the last few are used up.


This... plus from what I've heard the metro is growing but the city proper slowly losing people for the time being.


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## geoking66 (Jun 27, 2006)

Number5 said:


> Thats mostly false. And it is loosing poverty level people, and picking up six figure people, so yeah.
> 
> Its biggest problem is shit tons of flat land to build things going on for miles. The biggest limiter causing higher prices is wanting waterfront access, but there are miles of coast to build on.
> 
> However, parking lots are getting filled in rapidly. Prices could start to spike once the last few are used up.


Job growth is just 0.6% annually. That's really bad for a major metro area in the US, especially when most are hitting the 2% mark and upwards of 3-4% for high-growth areas. Professional services growth of 1.5% is considerably lower than in peer cities as well. I'm not denying that there are structural shifts, but the overall economic environment isn't good. Illinois is in shambles, the city is notorious for corruption and other gateway markets are more attractive for investors.


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## stop that (Jul 28, 2015)

DUBAI10000 said:


> I Believe Shenzhen China will stay strong with growth and construction and I believe after Hudson Yards and Nordstrom Tower, 111 West 57th St is all built there will be a big low in New York City Development. I also think Dubai will continue to build at a steady but slower pace in the future, meaning more 150 meter buildings and less 400 meter buildings. I also think we are going to see a big boom in South Eastern Asian Cities such as Jakarta and Bangkok.


I really don't see that happening, like really.
With the oil era in its last death throws it's middle eastern skylines that are the most likely to have rapid slowdown in construction. New York fundamentals are solid so it will always be building tall


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## droneriot (Apr 1, 2008)

stop that said:


> I really don't see that happening, like really.
> With the oil era in its last death throws it's middle eastern skylines that are the most likely to have rapid slowdown in construction. New York fundamentals are solid so it will always be building tall


NYC's fundamentals are solid because nothing is built there for the sake of it. With the massive supply being built atm, there will be less demand. I, too, believe it will cool down, but obviously not permanently, demand will increase again steadily. It's a great place to have an office and a great place to have an apartment so $$$.

Mumbai has been mentioned a few times and I can't comment on it, news from India seems to be less readily available than from other developing countries. I know the names of districts in Chinese cities but India still seems like another planet. :lol: Any local, what's going on in Mumbai exactly and how do you see it developing?


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## lowenmeister (Oct 1, 2012)

droneriot said:


> Mumbai has been mentioned a few times and I can't comment on it, news from India seems to be less readily available than from other developing countries. I know the names of districts in Chinese cities but India still seems like another planet. :lol: Any local, what's going on in Mumbai exactly and how do you see it developing?


Im not indian but Mumbai will boom for the same reasons that New york did a 100 years ago,Mumbai is the richest,most developed finance centre on the Indian subcontinent and a destination of migrants from all over a nation of 1.3 billion people.
Most of Mumbai is located on the island of Salsette
(population 15 million) which is directly comparable to Manhattan in population density only being 10 times more populated.
With so much wealth and people concentrated on one place and nowhere to grow but up the result should be pretty clear.


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## Birmingham (May 29, 2007)

What are we classifying boom as? 

Over 300m?


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## KavirajG (Apr 5, 2011)

Undeniably both Shenzhen and New York will continue to grow. 

Dubai, already home to the world's busiest international airport and 9th busiest container port (undergoing further major expansion) will also continue to grow despite dwindling oil production, boosted also by other sectors and industries like international trade, commerce and tourism. 
Considering only aviation, it is projected that the sector's economic contribution to Dubai's GDP will be 37% by 2020 compared to approximately 25% today. 

However, the 'boom' could well come from from elsewhere. Here I'm talking especially about cities from the South East Asian belt namely Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Jakarta and even HCMC.

Many Chinese cities, some currently off the radar, will also undergo massive boom. One notable example is Urumqi in Western China which lies on the newly implemented 'Silk Route'. If it can capitalise fully on this trade network with huge potential, the city no doubt will undergo massive growth.

India with its high economic growth and exploding population and high population density will trigger large scale construction in some cities like Mumbai and also maybe New Delhi and Bangalore.


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## Tommy Boy (Feb 3, 2009)

Truly hope and pray for the upcoming future Chicago Supertall/Megatall Skyscraper boom. It is time for Chicago to start building some World class skyscraper as we all know they can build. Think that Chicago will become the first city in the US and all the rest Americas to have their first Megatall skyscraper. This would send a message to the rest of the World that Chicago is back for sure on the right track.


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## Hatimy25 (Apr 28, 2015)

hopefully Toronto. But most likely dubai or china.


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## wino (Sep 8, 2009)

DUBAI10000 said:


> I also think we are going to see a big boom in South Eastern Asian Cities such as *Jakarta *and *Bangkok*.





KavirajG said:


> However, the 'boom' could well come from from elsewhere. Here I'm talking especially about cities from the South East Asian belt namely Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Jakarta and even HCMC.




Agree.. if not China, it has to be south east Asia..
But I'll put KL ahead of Bangkok. Thai economy is the slowest among the 6 major ASEAN economies for a few years now... it could have an effect on construction "booming".


And yes HCMC is gearing towards a boom as well.. 

Everyone seems to be forgetting Manila.. it has the biggest skyscraper boom in the last 5 years or more. But sadly no supertalls.. 
Same with Singapore... might be the height restrictions...


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## droneriot (Apr 1, 2008)

Hatimy25 said:


> hopefully Toronto.


Does seem to be one of the very few Western cities where building tall is something that actually happens, not just one never built proposal after another. Very present in the Skyscrapers section of the WDN Forums. Possible that it could go further.

For Western cities I also like to keep Melbourne in the back of my head. Dunno how much the country's stubborn economic focus on the ever shifting mining sector affects the city's real estate market, but I believe under the right conditions it could turn into something any time.


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## Codename B (Feb 20, 2011)

wino said:


> Agree.. if not China, it has to be south east Asia..
> But I'll put KL ahead of Bangkok. Thai economy is the slowest among the 6 major ASEAN economies for a few years now... it could have an effect on construction "booming".


Thai public sector had always been very strong. Bangkok still getting around 200 projects every year, and while Thai GDP growth is the slowest in the region at 3%, Thai GDP per capita (ppp) increases as one of the fastest among major ASEAN economies, more so than countries that has higher GDP growth.

There's also a lot of new 200+ skyscrapers and some supertalls popping up. 

Here's a list of all the new 200+ skyscrapers currently u/c

IconSiam Tower II: 268M
ESSE : 254M
Waldorf Astoria + Magnolias Ratchaprasong : 242M
Menam Residence : 239M
Marque : 222M
Singha Headquartiers : 217M
Nimit : 209M

and here's a list of all 300+ supertalls currently u/c

Super Tower : 615M
IconSiam Tower I : 315M
MahaNakhon : 314M
Four Seasons Hotel : 305M
Soontareeya 300+M

And more will be revealed and launching this year..

_“The property market will grow by 5-10 percent nationwide this year, especially in greater Bangkok, thanks to the government’s investment in infrastructure projects,”_









http://www.cbre.co.th/propertynews/developers-see-bright-year-ahead-plan-bt250-bn-worth-of-launches/


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## agoragk (Feb 9, 2016)




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## Nullpointer (Jan 30, 2016)

the next will be kuala lumpur


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## MaxVoyager (Dec 9, 2015)

Dubai Fountain


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## Denjiro (Jun 18, 2012)

I think that Southeast Asian cities are coming through for sure, as they are all going through construction booms at the moment. KL, Jakarta, Bangkok as well as Saigon could turn out to be real game changers.


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