# Is the age of the skyscraper boom over?



## OMH (Aug 21, 2007)

Well i think that the construction boom for skyscrapers will continue in China for some time now, because it's economy seems to be prevailing quite good during the crisis , even though I'll expect a property bust there too. 

About Dubai, this is gonna depend on how fast the debts will be payed back, but i strongly believe that investment -and construction- is gonna continue there , albeit not in such numbers as before 2009...
and about Europe and NA , well here I think the chances aren't that good since this is the area that has been hit most by the financial crisis, so we'll see how it works out here...


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## bayviews (Mar 3, 2006)

dachacon said:


> also i just wanted to throw in another observation that i have seen with skyscraper booms. they never end and thats the case today. the boom just moves to different places, and regions like cycles.



Africa, with most of the highest rates of population growth & urbanization, may have the next skyscraper boom.


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## the spliff fairy (Oct 21, 2002)

^oh yes, given the vast resources, and the fact most of the fastest growing economies, and the fastest urbanising populations are now in Africa. Given all the bad press for the Chinese companies 'exploiting' African states, theyve built huge infrastructure and invested massive amounts that are making a real difference, and notably dealing with 'failed states' the rest of the world won't touch. The Chinese policy tends to be don't ask question's, and don't get involved in the politics, or wars (eg Sudan, Chad, Somalia, Zimbabwe) though infamously they sell arms to both sides, underwriting the conflicts.

Its not any difference though from what Western companies have been doing for decades (and still are, buying up the nations resources and food, and selling it back to the Africans, and maintaining a capitalist hierarchy of business and poverty), but this time the Chinese aren't burning the ladder behind them. The idea is that they will develop Africa up enough to have a trade bloc going, rather than just a massive mine for exploitation. Road and rail systems, education and industry are all being developed on a massive scale. $2 billion has been loaned to Congo, $3 billion paid to Angola for oil, $5 billion to Nigeria. 150 govt debts owed by 32 African countries were also cancelled. Already over a million Chinese live in Africa, starting African families, and vice versa in China as hundreds of thousands of market traders move to the south (eg Guangzhou and its 200,000 strong 'NigeriaTown'), almost doubling in size each year.

"But there is much more going on than a meet, greet and grab from the African continent. China has big economic plans and ambitions in Africa that go beyond oil and minerals. While much of the world still views Africa as a basket-case continent, Beijing is thinking ahead and busy establishing a foothold in Africa's potentially large consumer markets...
But China has caught on to something that eludes most governments and companies in the West. Chinese state-owned and private enterprises believe *African consumers could be the great untapped gold mine.* Beijing's engagement with African leaders and governments is increasingly about ensuring that Chinese firms are best placed to sell their products when Africans start buying.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1934868,00.html#ixzz0Zl0pTWNE

"At the state level, African leaders are very positive about the presence of the Chinese. “There is no one like the Chinese,” said Lansana Conte, former President of Guinea. “At least they work. They live with us in the mud ….” Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade praised Chinese workers in similar terms. “China is doing a much better job than western capitalists in responding to market demands in Africa.” Festus Mogae, former President of Botswana was no less appreciative. “… I prefer the attitude of China to that of the West."

"-however friction does arise as the Chinese are replacing African labour pools, and in 2006, Zambian opposition leader, Michael Sata accused China of using Zambia as a dumping ground for Chinese citizens."

Read more at Suite101: China's Long March into Africa: New Faces in the Old Continent of Africa | Suite101.com http://sasianchineseaffairs.suite101.com/article.cfm/chinas_long_march_into_africa#ixzz0ZkwPn6LS


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## city_thing (May 25, 2006)

^^ Time actually had an article on this subject in their last issue. Except, they took the the opposite point of view. 'twas an interesting read, especially when it comes to Papua New Guinea.


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## the spliff fairy (Oct 21, 2002)

yep, China is still exploiting Africa (as is the West) - something like 70 percent of its timber comes from there for one, but that isnt exactly something uncommon in the globalised, capitalist business world (compare that to Western banks that charge Africa $8 in astronomical interest for every $1 given in charity, the original loans already paid back many times over, and billions in debt owed, or private companies that buy up the entire water sources of a nation then charge the people to use it).

The difference is the Chinese are looking to target a potential consumer force of over a billion, when Africans start buying. Its not just hunting for resources like everyone else, its strategy is to set up a pan-continental trading bloc that will last longer than any resource, and invest in the continent becoming middle class. Hence why so many African nations are on the rise now. Africa will have the potential to be at China's current stage one day - the factory of the world turning out products for Chinese consumers, while buying Chinese products themselves.


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## the spliff fairy (Oct 21, 2002)

Rising African cities

Kinshasa u/c:

















Luanda SCROLL>>>> (capital of the world's fastest growing major economy, Angola










Luanda's Camama city u/c










Nairobi


























Abidjan

















Dakar










Lagos










Harare










Johannesburg










Cairo


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## clikinghere (Nov 29, 2009)

China has to stop worshipping money and exploit the weakers, treating them like a dirt. I would also suggest them to stop terrorising Europe by immigrating and selling the horrible items. That's an invasion. Leave them free and independent. If China stops eating their own Chinese cuisines, their filthy will to crusade Europe is going to stop, by understanding them spiritually. They are only thinking about themselves. You have not learnt from the western colonisation, the feeling have been invaded. The capitalism is an evil lie. I support the socialism.


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

the spliff fairy said:


> The difference is the Chinese are looking to target a potential consumer force of over a billion, when Africans start buying. Its not just hunting for resources like everyone else, its strategy is to set up a pan-continental trading bloc that will last longer than any resource, and invest in the continent becoming middle class. Hence why so many African nations are on the rise now. Africa will have the potential to be at China's current stage one day - the factory of the world turning out products for Chinese consumers, while buying Chinese products themselves.


I think your reading way too much into it. Africa is in no way "on the rise". China's is not going to waste their time with something like that, China can't even get it's own house in order. And it's not something any country or collection of countries can change because it's starts with the African leadership. I don't see that as changing in the next 40 years..


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## The Cebuano Exultor (Aug 1, 2005)

*@ clikinghere*



> China has to stop worshipping money


^^ Yes, they do like money.

But who are you to tell other people to abandon their cultural preferences?

How would you like to be told to stop worshiping your God, simply because they hate what you are doing? I'm sure you wouldn't like that.



> and exploit the weakers, treating them like a dirt.


^^ China is doing the best it can to make use of its huge low-skilled workforce.

You have to realize that China is still generally a developing country. It still can't afford to provide a comprehensive universal social safety net as the West can.

And besides, these huge army of low-skilled workers are much better-off working in low-paying factories than in their farming villages.

It is encouraging to note that China's tertiary education system is not only growing in scope and scale but also improving in quality. Last yeat, the number of Chinese engineering graduates surpassed the 500,000 mark (which is equal to the the combined figure for the U.S. and India). Through a better tertiary educational system, China's workforce would slowly become more high-skilled. This would bring spearhead a new knowledge-based revolution which would elevate the service sector (the least developed sector in the Chinese economy).

As better-skilled workers, ever newer batches of Chinese graduates would have ever higher propensity of getting hired in high-paying white-collar jobs.



> I would also suggest them to stop *terrorising* Europe by immigrating and selling the horrible items. That's an invasion.


^^ Are you crazy?! That's a harsh and unfounded accusation. China has never been involved in external terrorism of any sort.

And besides, the influx of cheap low-quality China-made goods has significantly helped in minimizing the inflation rates of much of Western Europe and North America.



> Leave them free and independent.


^^ Last time I checked, the Europeans were the ones who tried to subdivide China during the "Age of Discovery" (or should I say, "Age of Colonialism").



> If China stops eating their own Chinese cuisines, their filthy will to crusade Europe is going to stop, by understanding them spiritually.


^^ Now that's just a rude and racist comment.



> They are only thinking about themselves. You have not learnt from the western colonisation, the feeling have been invaded.


^^ It is only logical that personal interests come first over the interests of others. In fact, it is the mantra of evolution: "Survival of the fittest." The capitalism is an evil lie. I support the socialism. Altruism is hard, especially in an ever competitive global environment.

The best way to be appear altruistic (despite being self-centered) is through the finding of solutions to globally-mutual interests (i.e., meetings on the issue of climate change in Copenhagen).


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## desertpunk (Oct 12, 2009)

clikinghere said:


> China has to stop worshipping money and exploit the weakers, treating them like a dirt. I would also suggest them to stop terrorising Europe by immigrating and selling the horrible items. That's an invasion. Leave them free and independent. If China stops eating their own Chinese cuisines, their filthy will to crusade Europe is going to stop, by understanding them spiritually. They are only thinking about themselves. You have not learnt from the western colonisation, the feeling have been invaded. The capitalism is an evil lie. I support the socialism.


WTF? :weird:


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## deranged (Jan 22, 2009)

^ clikinghere is a spambot.


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## HK999 (Jul 17, 2009)

deranged said:


> ^ clikinghere is a spambot.


yeah, don't take him serious. his only aim is to spread hate and anger among the forumers. hno:
and i think that china's growing meddling in africa is good for the people there. china gives them money, loans and hope. not to mention the construction of buildings, motorways, pipelines etc.


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## z0rg (Jan 17, 2003)

malec said:


> He's just saying that it won't go on forever. There will be a lot of supertalls built in China in the next few years but I certainly don't think it will be even close to seeing all the proposals that exist now built, especially the biggest ones.


Well, I've been following supertall news in China quite closely over the last 3 years and these are the main trends.

1- I delete 1-2 proposals a month from my lists on the average. I delete any building when we have no news for more than 18 months. Normally either concept proposals with no news for too long (sometimes they come back a long time later) or vague props which I "guess" that they should be taller than 300m but finally they are just 250-299m. 

2- I add around 5 proposals a month on the average.

3- Once-twice a month some proposal is revised, normally (90% of times) upwards.

4- Back in 2007-2008, most projects in my lists were proposals, many of them long term proposals without a real design, without a developer, etc. Today half of them are either u/c or approved and expecting construction start in a short term (6-12 months). 

5- Back in 2007 we had 0 proposals taller than the SWFC. Today it ranks 17th in my list, 9th if you include approved projects only.

6- The % of 400m+ and 500m+ has simply skyrocketed since mid 2008. They were vere rare before, countless 300-360m projects prior to 2008, but very few taller than 400m. Now they are being announced everywhere. 

This list is from August 2006, only 3 years ago. Notice that back then I wasn't too rigorous, and I used to add any vague proposal I found, even if they weren't formally proposed and just design proposals by some architect. Also I used to list them as u/c as soon as ssp claimed so (stupid me, yeah).

You have 54 projects here, 40 of them built, u/c or approved in some way. Though many of them appear as u/c, only 10 of them were truly u/c.
Also:
- Jinling Fuguang was never a real project, just a proposal by an architect.
- The height of the Great China twins was never confirmed.
- The Ningbo twins were a concept proposal which was not included in the final layout of the new district of Ningbo
- Feng Long center was never approved (deleted now)
- Changsha twins were never approved either
- Shanghai Gate of Hongkou was only a proposal by an architect










3 years and 3 months later. Though this list is only 7~ weeks old it is quite outdated already. 3-4 projects have been revised upwards, a few more have been announced, started, etc.


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## bayviews (Mar 3, 2006)

Onn said:


> I think your reading way too much into it. Africa is in no way "on the rise". China's is not going to waste their time with something like that, China can't even get it's own house in order. And it's not something any country or collection of countries can change because it's starts with the African leadership. I don't see that as changing in the next 40 years..


Quite true, Africa can use lots of improvement when it comes to leadership. But even in that respect its made significant headway over the past decade. China no more than the US can afford not to "waste their time" with Africa. Given that Africa has large quanities of the commodies & resources that they need to fuel their economies. 

Not the least of which is oil


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## desertpunk (Oct 12, 2009)

bayviews said:


> Quite true, Africa can use lots of improvement when it comes to leadership. But even in that respect its made significant headway over the past decade. China no more than the US can afford not to "waste their time" with Africa. Given that Africa has large quanities of the commodies & resources that they need to fuel their economies.
> 
> Not the least of which is oil


The question is how well african countries can manage these relationships. There are many stories of a kind of neo-colonial plundering of Africa's farmlands, water resources, as well as its mineral wealth. The often dysfunctional political leadership in many countries actually fosters this situation by allowing deals to be structured that give the illusion of independence while money flows into the right pockets and foreign interests are allowed to do as they please.


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## desertpunk (Oct 12, 2009)

@ zOrg: Many economists are watching a huge real estate bubble expand in China. Some are predicting trouble in the second quarter of 2010 and it appears the government is just allowing it to grow without intervention. My question is how rapidly is all this new inventory being absorbed and by what firms? How many of these supertalls are being built entirely on spec? And since, unlike Dubai, so many of these projects are commercial office space, what is the driving factor behind building so much so soon? Does China now have 3 CITICs instead of one? Or three CNOOCs? Sooner or later, this market will rationalize and if it doesn't, we'll be witnessing another Dubai.


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## bayviews (Mar 3, 2006)

desertpunk said:


> The question is how well african countries can manage these relationships. There are many stories of a kind of neo-colonial plundering of Africa's farmlands, water resources, as well as its mineral wealth. The often dysfunctional political leadership in many countries actually fosters this situation by allowing deals to be structured that give the illusion of independence while money flows into the right pockets and foreign interests are allowed to do as they please.


Yea, exactly, those are very tough challenges that we spend lots of time discussing & debating on the African forums. 

On China's real estate, I'm sure China's cities too will to will see many bubbles, booms & busts, only to rise again.

The difference is that China has many Dubais, a few will fall, while many others flourish.


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## Abdallah K. (Jan 30, 2009)

The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

bayviews said:


> Quite true, Africa can use lots of improvement when it comes to leadership. But even in that respect its made significant headway over the past decade. China no more than the US can afford not to "waste their time" with Africa. Given that Africa has large quanities of the commodies & resources that they need to fuel their economies.
> Not the least of which is oil


I don't see where you’re coming from there, if Africa has significant fuel resources people would have dug into them a long time ago. I still think Africa's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only real reason anyone is even mentioning Africa is because of the "Global Economy". And the global economy is not going to last forever.


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

desertpunk said:


> @ zOrg: Many economists are watching a huge real estate bubble expand in China. Some are predicting trouble in the second quarter of 2010 and it appears the government is just allowing it to grow without intervention. My question is how rapidly is all this new inventory being absorbed and by what firms? How many of these supertalls are being built entirely on spec? And since, unlike Dubai, so many of these projects are commercial office space, what is the driving factor behind building so much so soon? Does China now have 3 CITICs instead of one? Or three CNOOCs? Sooner or later, this market will rationalize and if it doesn't, we'll be witnessing another Dubai.


My sources say a massive collapse could come around 2020, but it could be earlier from the looks of things. Who knows. The Chinese economy will probably take a rather large dip eventually, and it may not recover the steam it once had.


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## bayviews (Mar 3, 2006)

Onn said:


> I don't see where you’re coming from there, if Africa has significant fuel resources people would have dug into them a long time ago. I still think Africa's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only real reason anyone is even mentioning Africa is because of the "Global Economy". And the global economy is not going to last forever.


Perhaps you don't realize that some of the fastest-growing sources of oil are in Africa: Nigeria has been a big source of oil for decades & Angola is becoming an even bigger exporter. So too is Sudan. 

The US, along with Asia & Europe certainly understands Africa's vital significance as source of future resouces. 

Why do think that the Pentagon created an Africa Command?

Just for the sake of goodwill?


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

Abdallah K. said:


> The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building


Why is it over in North America? North America is still very young, I think you need to be careful about what you say. We'll still be growing after much of Asia has stoped.


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

bayviews said:


> Perhaps you don't realize that some of the fastest-growing sources of oil are in Africa: Nigeria has been a big source of oil for decades & Angola is becoming an even bigger exporter. So too is Sudan.
> 
> The US, along with Asia & Europe certainly understands Africa's vital significance as source of future resouces.
> 
> ...


I'm sure, but I don't see US compaines running over there getting in line for oil feilds.

And Al Qaeda of course, there are terrorists in Africa too you know.


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## desertpunk (Oct 12, 2009)

Abdallah K. said:


> The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building


Utter nonsense. The US, with a $15 trillion economy could build a Dubai every month if we wanted to. We don't want to. Canada is building lots of new talls and Mexico is just getting started. Europe's cities are unrecognizable, even from 10 years ago they have been building so much. China will absolutely build amazing cities and skylines as will so many other regions. The world has caught the skyscraper bug and only overbuilding has slowed it down.


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## Xusein (Sep 27, 2005)

Onn said:


> I think your reading way too much into it. Africa is in no way "on the rise". China's is not going to waste their time with something like that, China can't even get it's own house in order. And it's not something any country or collection of countries can change because it's starts with the African leadership. I don't see that as changing in the next 40 years..





Onn said:


> I don't see where you’re coming from there, if Africa has significant fuel resources people would have dug into them a long time ago. I still think Africa's not going anywhere anytime soon. The only real reason anyone is even mentioning Africa is because of the "Global Economy". And the global economy is not going to last forever.


In 1970, the same was said about China and India. 

And back then, the idea of the tallest building in 2010 being in Dubai would have been a joke, because it was nothing but a dusty town back then.


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## Chicagoago (Dec 2, 2005)

Abdallah K. said:


> The age is certainly over in Europe and North America but look at Asia! China is booming and skyscrapers are coming up everywhere and Arab Nations just keep on building


I wouldn't say that about North America. The US and Canada are still growing by 10-15% every decade as they have been for 100 years.

Cities like Chicago and New York, Toronto have built skyscrapers by the hundreds in the past 10 years. The economy might be going through hell and real estate is "upset" right now - but I've seen nothing that says the fundamentals of these cities or all the other cities of North America have changed in their treatment of the highrise.

I moved here in 2001 (Chicago), and this city has built dozens and dozens of tall buildings since then. Except for this bubble in the economy the city would have kept building with no reason to quit. The region is growing and there is demand. Why would this stop once the economy picks back up? There are always ups and downs, but the age of the skyscraper is not over by any means.


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

Xusein said:


> In 1970, the same was said about China and India.
> 
> And back then, the idea of the tallest building in 2010 being in Dubai would have been a joke, because it was nothing but a dusty town back then.


Eventually Africa will come around, yes. I like to think of Africa as Earth's final frontier. But I also have to consider the sources, and they don't mention Africa. 

That being said, I guess it's anyone's guess...


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## z0rg (Jan 17, 2003)

desertpunk said:


> @ zOrg: Many economists are watching a huge real estate bubble expand in China. Some are predicting trouble in the second quarter of 2010 and it appears the government is just allowing it to grow without intervention. My question is how rapidly is all this new inventory being absorbed and by what firms? How many of these supertalls are being built entirely on spec? And since, unlike Dubai, so many of these projects are commercial office space, what is the driving factor behind building so much so soon? Does China now have 3 CITICs instead of one? Or three CNOOCs? Sooner or later, this market will rationalize and if it doesn't, we'll be witnessing another Dubai.


1- Vacancy rates in China are certainly high (10-25%) in comparison with mature markets. That's mostly because the available floor stock is still very low in all the second and three tier cities, meaning that when a new tower is completed the total office stock in the city increases sharply. And there are many projects being finished these years.

2- In order to avoid bottlenecks, you need high vacancy rates in China. China's economy is skyrocketing, a low vacancy rate is very unhealthy. Shanghai had a serious bottleneck of office supply in late 2007, when the vacancy rate dropped to 1-2%, that's crazy for a city whose economy registers double digit growth. Fortunately they finished many large projects in the following months (SWFC, Park Place, BOEA Tower, etc), so the vacancy rate jumped again.









3- Instead of paying too much attention to the vacancy rates, people should wonder how long takes the current available office to be absorbed by the market. Good example is Beijing, one of the only already mature office markets in China, whose vacancy rate has kept stable around 15-20% the whole decade as countles monster midrise complexes were completed year after year. Trolls have bashed Beijing in this forum over and over claiming that the finished projects will take decades to be absorbed by the market. If you look at this chart carefully you'll notice that the market takes only 2 years to absorb the available space, that's pretty reasonable. However back in late 2007 the occupied offce area was slighty higher than the total available stock just 1 year earlier, rather unhealthy.









4- Many cities in China have suffered serious bubbles in the residential market. But you know, China is growing 10%~ a year. Just a few quarters after the bubble implodes the real demand catches up with the supply again. Real estate bubbles don't last much in booming economies especialy if the city has a very hot immigration preassure and wages grow 10-18% a year on the average while inflation remains around 2-4.5%. Floor prices have grown much slower than the household income over the last years.

About the buyers, you know the Chinese companies are booming. Many going public/listed every year, etc. Companies from China Mainland in the Forbes Global 2000 list (this ranking includes listed companies only):
2005: 19
2006: 28
2007: 42
2008: 70 
2009: 91
Add the oceans of SMEs being created every year, add the fact that many of these towers contain hotels (domestic toursim booming in China, China becoming world's first country by international tourist arrivals in a short-mid term) Etc :cheers:

China's GDP is expected to triple over the next decade. Given that its economy will be more domestic consumption and services oriented as industry, exports and fixed asset investments areas lose importance, the office area demand should soar even faster.


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## AltinD (Jul 15, 2004)

desertpunk said:


> Utter nonsense. The US, with a $15 trillion economy could build a Dubai every month if we wanted to. We don't want to..


No, you can't!


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

AltinD said:


> No, you can't!


Bill Gates could build Dubai himself, at one point he was worth 100 billion dollars. But the point that he never did makes me believe it's not a good idea, being the world's most successful person and all.


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## AltinD (Jul 15, 2004)

^^ It's not just about money ... FT comes to mind.


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## desertpunk (Oct 12, 2009)

@zOrg:
Unless Shanghai is a small office market ( which it isn't ) , those wild swings in its vacancy rate should be of real concern. How do you align anything coming out of the ground with those numbers? Also, how can you have real adjusted wage inflation of "10-18%" while recording an overall inflation rate of "2-4.5%"? The only answer is that the central government is absorbing the difference by maintaining subsidies on a variety of goods and services. As the incomes grow and buying power increases, this puts a lot of pressure on the government to either relax subsidies and risk the social fallout, or maintain them and risk the squeeze on available capital that they might need for other things. I do like those absorption stats for Beijing. they indicate a steady increase in supply without any serious long term vacancy issues. It is indeed a healthy chart for a fast growing market. And really, 20% vacancies are not a problem considering that new buildings rarely come onto the market fully leased. I still wonder about that rollercoaster ride happening in the Shanghai chart... :cheers:


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## Onn (Oct 11, 2008)

AltinD said:


> ^^ It's not just about money ... FT comes to mind.


But that's all Dubai is about, MONEY. New York is New York, its strict and a political mess in itself! There's plenty of room here to build 10 or 20 American Dubai's if someone really wanted too.


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## desertpunk (Oct 12, 2009)

AltinD said:


> No, you can't!


Well let's just say that if we wanted to, there wouldn't be a lot of bankers willing to lend for such a purpose  It'd have to come out of the federal budget and the politics of that would send anyone to drink! :scouserd:


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## Northsider (Jan 16, 2006)

ehh, removed.


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## GreenEco (Nov 16, 2009)

No, the age of the skyscraper is not over. Skyscrapers will still be built all across the world. The reason why places like China and other Asian countries build so many is partly because they have to, due to lack of land and abundance of people. The US will continue to build them as well, just not at the same rate. There is an abundance of land here and a culture that, whether we like it or not, _prefers_ a suburban lifestyle. Still, scrapers will continue to rise. The credit crunch is over, as is the US recession. GDP grew by 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2009.


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