# Cities to potentially have 10+ completed supertalls by 2020?



## Amastroi2017 (Jun 17, 2012)

I was wondering how many cities in the world have a legitimate shot at having 10 or more completed buildings 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020. 

I know 984 feet is technically a supertall but 1,000 feet to roof height is a much better feat in my opinion, a more substantial milestone. 

Only one city currently has 10 or more which is Dubai.

I believe only six cities have a legitimate shot at 10 or more by 2020.
Those are:
Dubai
New York
Mumbai
Shenzhen
Tianjin
Guangzhou

Cities that will most likely be close include Shanghai, Hong Kong, Moscow, Dalian and maybe Chicago. 

Look forward to hearing people's view on this topic.


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## KillerZavatar (Jun 22, 2010)

current list of cities with 300m buildings topped out by ZZ-II:
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/22508016/Supertall City Ranking November 2012.pdf

Now looking at CTBUH's database and analysing

So Dubai is already there.

New York has more than 5 buildings over 300m planned, so it is pretty likely unless another crisis hits the world. I think New York may get there in 2016 or 2017

So many projects for mumbai are uncertain, on hold, yet so many of them are twin or triple residential towers. Mumbai will get there for sure though. In 2015 it may get to 8 and i am pretty sure the boom won't stop there.

Shenzhen might get there in 2016 already, currently it looks like it will have 9 by then, but looking at china proposing a tower and then just pushing it up i am sure there will be at least one more tower that is only a bit over 300m which will be finished by then also. If not then 2017. By 2020 no question though.

Tianjin only has 1 building completed above 300m, but will have 8 by 2016 and from then on it will most likely compete with Mumbai what Hong Kong and New York used to compete about.  By 2020 it will be there for sure.

Guangzhou has a whole new CBD planned and several more areas with 400m monsters, It will break the 10 by 2017 maybe and from then skyrocket upwards.

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Shanghai is really hard to say. There is not much planned as of now, but we all know that there is just too much potential in far too many areas in the city. I think it may get there, but rather close. Maybe in 2019 or 2020. If Shanghai continues to pull massive projects instead of more smaller ones then it may not. 

Hong Kong really has not enough space. I think we will see one more big project coming (400m+) and a lot more in the 200-300m range, but i don't think it will make it until 2020, although i really do hope so.

A lot of projects struggle in moscow right now already. I really can't see it coming, but it would be a happy surprise. Moscow always had very ambitious plans and visions.

Dalian is one of the new comers, but i do not think 2020 is enough time.

Chicago may get a come back. Now that i see Toronto and New York booming i really see it possible, after all it 'only' needs 4 more supertalls.

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Chongqing has supposed to have a big boom, but disappointed in the outcome, yet we shouldn't scratch it completely from our boards, it defenetely has the potential, even by 2020

Nanjing will get close for sure and won't surprise me if it gets 10 even by 2018 by all these projects popping up.

Seoul still has this Mega-CBD to come. If all of it gets build it would make it and we still have time for that 

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Wuhan has quite ambitious plans, don't think it will be there in 2020, but it is worth keeping an eye for it.

Shenyang might have potential, but only the next years will show.

Kuala Lumpur will not make it i believe, but i still wanted to mention it, because i think it may get close with maybe 8 or something in 2020. but hard to say.

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There are a lot of cities that i think will get interesting in the next years, especially Busan, Jakarta and Manila, but they will get nowhere close to 10 by 2020, yet they might be a surprise in the following decade keeping up with how Mumbai does now.

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And yes i am quite a positive thinker in the moment, wrote this in a good mood :lol: After all 7 years is a long time and we see the supertall proposals popping out so often. Especially in chinese cities after a proposal and it coming of the ground it can be finished rather quickly, if it is a building of 270m with a 30m spire it is already considered a supertall. A tower like that could be unknown to us and not really proposed until like 2017 and still has a chance to bring a city up another supertall closer to the mark, so i think there are a lot of surprises we may not see coming now.

Yet if i had to put money on a choice, i would probably only put up the cities you said already.


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## deekshith (Oct 8, 2010)

As of today 12 supertalls are under construction + site prep in Mumbai and are going on smoothly without any hurdles. 

World one 442m x 1
Oasis 372m x 1
DB crown 337m x 2 (out of 3 one is downgraded to 65 fls)
Palais royale 320m x 1
Omkar worli 300m+ x 2
Minerva 304m x 1
Namaste tower 301m x 1
Century IT park 300m x 1
Island city center 300m+ x 2

On hold projects which can be get completed by 2020.
India tower 720m x 1
DB turf view 300m+ x 2
DB heights 328m x 2

Proposed and approved supertalls.
Third tower of 
World towers complex 350m+ x 1
Four seasons II 355m x 1
Shreepati gardens 400m+ x 2
Shreepati heights 301m x 1
Indra tower  300m x 1
Island city center 300m x 5

I would say Mumbai will get around 15 supertalls by 2020 for sure.


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## Chimer (Apr 20, 2006)

KillerZavatar said:


> A lot of projects struggle in moscow right now already. I really can't see it coming, but it would be a happy surprise. Moscow always had very ambitious plans and visions.


The only supertall project under construction in Moscow really "struggle" is Federation Tower East. That's really sad, because it supposed to be tallest, and I'm afraid it will be on hold probably until late 2013 or even later date... But still I believe it will be completed in next few years.

All others supertalls UC feel fine: Mercury t/o, Eurasia t/о, Oko growing fast, so I don't expect any troubles with these ones.

But these give us only 5 supertalls (including Capital City Moscow, 302 m, 990 ft) and there are no other real plans for new supertalls. Russia tower canceled and no hope for it in near future... 

The main problem is position of new mayor Sobyanin, who is strictly against any new supertalls construction hno:


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## missioneiro (Sep 18, 2008)

Brazil will have 0 supertalls. But finally some skyscrapers between 200 and 260 meters... so sad


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## Abinash89 (Mar 2, 2012)

I would say watch out for Delhi(NCR) guys.The height restriction has been revoked.According to sources as many as 28 skyscrapers including numerous supertalls are at the initial stage of planning or been proposed.Keeping in mind that the megacity is struggling for free space now,vertical movement is inevitable in near future.


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## isaidso (Mar 21, 2007)

KillerZavatar said:


> Chicago may get a come back. Now that i see *Toronto* and New York booming i really see it possible, after all it 'only' needs 4 more supertalls.


New York will get there, but Toronto will likely need more time. Toronto has no super tall buildings and is an excruciatingly pragmatic city. Building heights in Toronto reflect the economics of the market.

That said, heights have jumped considerably over the last 6 years. In 2006, the tallest buildings going up were typically just over 100m tall. By 2008, developers had pushed heights to about 150-200m. In 2010, Toronto started seeing 200-260m proposals. Today, we're seeing the first super tall proposals with 2 possibly 4*** such proposals in just a few weeks. 

Toronto seems to have reached that tipping point where 300m+ buildings become compelling from an economic point of view. 7 years to go from zero to 10 super talls? Sounds like a tall order. Then again, the Toronto construction boom continues to surprise the biggest skeptics.


*** Oxford East (326m), Oxford West (326m), 98 floor proposal for Yonge, 92 floor proposal for Yonge.


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## isaidso (Mar 21, 2007)

*Will have 10+ completed super talls by 2020:*

New York
Dubai
Tianjin
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Seoul
Mumbai


*Outside chance of having 10+ completed super talls by 2020:*

Hong Kong
Shanghai
Nanjing
Busan
Chicago
Toronto
Kuala Lumpur


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## Kristian_KG (Apr 9, 2008)

Amastroi2017 said:


> I believe only six cities have a legitimate shot at 10 or more by 2020.
> Those are:
> Dubai
> New York
> ...


supertall skyscr and tele towers or only skyscrapers?


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## KillerZavatar (Jun 22, 2010)

isaidso said:


> New York will get there, but Toronto will likely need more time.


you misunderstood me. i said Toronto is booming, not it will make it into this list


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## hunser (Nov 25, 2008)

New York will definitely be there. 
10 completed supertalls is the worst case scenario, and 20 the most optimistic one. So I guess we'll se about 15 supertalls finished by 2020. Of course there will be proposals in the coming years but those won't make it this decade. 

Here's the list (taken from my SSP thread):

1. *One World Trade Center*, 1787ft (544,7m), Under Construction (steel topped out)
2. *Nordstrom Tower*, 1550ft+ (472,4m+), Site Preparation (likely to exceed 1600ft)
3. *432 Park Avenue*, 1398ft (426,1m), Under Construction (height not final; probably 1420ft (432m))
4. *Two World Trade Center*, 1349ft (411,2m), Under Construction (currently on hold)
5. *Hudson Yards North Tower*, 1337ft (407,5m), Approved
6. *Empire State Building*, 1250ft (381m), Completed [1,454ft (443,2m) when counting the spire]
7. *15 Penn PLaza*, 1216ft (370,6m), Approved
8. *One Manhattan West*, 1216ft (370,6m), Site Preparation
9. *Bank of America Tower*, 1200ft (365,8m), Completed
10. *Three World Trade Center*, 1155ft (352m), Under Construction
11. Conde Nast Building, 1118ft (340,7m), Completed [when counting the spire]
12. *The Girasole*, 1060ft (323,1m), Site Preparation (likely to exceed 1400ft)
13. *Tower Verre*, 1050ft (320m), Site Preparation
14. *Chrysler Building*, 1046ft (318,8m), Completed
15. *New York Times Tower*, 1046ft (318,8m), Completed
16. *One57*, 1005ft (306,3m), Topped Out
17. Equinox Tower, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
18. *One Hudson Yards*, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Site Preparation
19. Sherwood Tower (34th & 10th), 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
20. 34th & 8th, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
21. 138 East 50th Sreet, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed
22. Grand Central Tower, 1000ft+ (304,8m+), Proposed (likely to exceed 1700ft)
*
■ Completed
■ Under Construction
■ On Hold
■ In Preparation
■ Approved*


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## Kiboko (Nov 30, 2011)

The new future is in India. Mumbai is already on its way, but also Kolkata will start very soon.


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## n20 (Oct 13, 2012)

Kristian_KG said:


> supertall skyscr and tele towers or only skyscrapers?


For actual supertalls, not communications towers.


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## n20 (Oct 13, 2012)

isaidso said:


> *Will have 10+ completed super talls by 2020:*
> 
> New York
> Dubai
> ...


I hope you're correct about Seoul, but I see it only as an outside chance. There's only one completed supertall in Incheon, one U/C and no others approved yet.


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## KillerZavatar (Jun 22, 2010)

n20 said:


> I hope you're correct about Seoul, but I see it only as an outside chance. There's only one completed supertall in Incheon, one U/C and no others approved yet.


there is a whole CBD coming in Seoul. the status is still unclear, but if they can fight to get it up Seoul would reach 10 supertalls finished when the buildings are finished. But i agree the chances are rather small.


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## isaidso (Mar 21, 2007)

KillerZavatar said:


> you misunderstood me. i said Toronto is booming, not it will make it into this list


No, I understood you the first time. I was just adding my 2cents.


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## tim1807 (May 28, 2011)

Amastroi2017 said:


> I was wondering how many cities in the world have a legitimate shot at having 10 or more completed buildings 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020.
> 
> I know 984 feet is technically a supertall but 1,000 feet to roof height is a much better feat in my opinion, a more substantial milestone.
> 
> ...


Good thread.

As for your list the number of towers finished by now. So you have an idea of what has to come. + under construction.

Dubai: *16* com/ *6* U/C (*2* T/O)
New York: *4* com/ *4* U/C (*2* T/O)
Mumbai: *0* com/* 10* U/C (*0* T/O)
Shenzhen: *3* com/ *5* U/C (*0* T/O)
Tianjin: *1* com/ *3* U/C (*0* T/O)
Guangzhou: *5* com/ *3* U/C (*0* T/O)
Shanghai: *3* com/ *2 *U/C (*0* T/O)
Hong Kong: *6* com/ *0* U/C (-)
Moscow: * 1* com/* 3* U/C (*2* T/O)
Dalian: *0* com/ *1* U/C (* 0* T/O)
Chicago: *6 *com/ *0* U/C (-)

And many, many, many proposals.


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## cfredo (Jul 9, 2012)

^^
I count 7 supertalls U/C (1 T/O) in Shenzhen:

Ping'an IFC, East Pacific Center (T/O), Gemdale Gangxia Tower, Hon Kwok City Center, Kingkey Xiasha Project, Heung Kong Tower, Shenzhen World Finance Center

So Shenzhen will definetely have more than 10 supertalls by 2020.


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## n20 (Oct 13, 2012)

tim1807 said:


> Good thread.
> 
> As for your list the number of towers finished by now. So you have an idea of what has to come. + under construction.
> 
> ...


There are 12 supertall buildings presently U/C in Mumbai and not 10. 
Please refer to Deekshith's list above.


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## nycfann1 (Mar 20, 2012)

tim1807 said:


> Good thread.
> 
> As for your list the number of towers finished by now. So you have an idea of what has to come. + under construction.
> 
> ...


Which 4 do you have UC in New York. I only see 432 park and 3 WTC.


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## cfredo (Jul 9, 2012)

^^
1WTC is still U/C


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## deekshith (Oct 8, 2010)

n20 said:


> There are 12 supertall buildings presently U/C in Mumbai and not 10.
> Please refer to Deekshith's list above.


If he counted only UC towers then it is 8 supertalls...... 12 supertalls includes 4 supertalls which are still in excavation stage.


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## nycfann1 (Mar 20, 2012)

cfredo said:


> ^^
> 1WTC is still U/C


Actually he had one57 and 1WTC as t/o so he still has 2 others as u/c


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## ZZ-II (May 10, 2006)

Amastroi2017 said:


> I was wondering how many cities in the world have a legitimate shot at having 10 or more completed buildings 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020.
> 
> I know 984 feet is technically a supertall but 1,000 feet to roof height is a much better feat in my opinion, a more substantial milestone.
> 
> ...


not sure, but maybe Wuhan also has a chance to reach 10 supertalls by 2020.


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## Amastroi2017 (Jun 17, 2012)

Nice to see all the discussion so far.

Just wanted to mention that topped out buildings are obviously not complete and a building doesn't count towards the 10 until it is fully complete.

Another note is I stated buildings that were 1,000 feet or higher to roof height are only counted towards the ten. Also no observation towers but nobody has counted them so far which is good.

For example, Shenzhen has a lot of work to do to make it to 10+ buildings complete that are 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020.

However with the plethera of buildings continuing to be proposed in Shenzhen along with those already proposed, the city has an excellent chance to make it to 10 if not 15+ by 2020.

Shenzhen by 2020 will definitely have:
1. *Kingkey 100* - complete
2. *Shun Hing Square* - complete
3. Ping An International Finance Centre Main Tower - u/c
4. Gemdale Gangxia Tower - u/c
5. Hon Kwok City Center - u/c
6. East Pacific Center Tower A - u/c

After those 6 Shenzhen has all of these towers in prep/approved/proposal stage such as:
1. Ping An International Finance Centre Secondary Tower
2. Kaisa Feng Long Centre
3. China Resources Headquarters
4. Caiwuwei Financial Center Main Tower
5. Caiwuwei Financial Center Secondary Tower
6. One Shenzhen Bay
7. Overseas Chinese City Tower - unconfirmed height as of now
8. Hanking Center
9. China Chenung Tower
10. Nantai Urban Hotel And Tower
11. Sungang-Qingshuihe Urban Tower 1
12. Sungang-Qingshuihe Urban Tower 2
13. Zhubian Xincun Tower
14. Shenzhen Petrochemical Exchange Center
15. Shenzhen International Trade Center
16. Honghe Project
17. Nanyou Twin Tower 1
18. Nanyou Twin Tower 2
19. Huanggang Redevelopment Tower 1
20. Huanggang Redevelopment Tower 2


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## KillerZavatar (Jun 22, 2010)

^^ that looks more like it :lol:


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## tim1807 (May 28, 2011)

nycfann1 said:


> Which 4 do you have UC in New York. I only see 432 park and 3 WTC.


+ One WTC and One57. Both T/O, but still UC.



Btw it's kinda hard to make an accurate list.


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## nycfann1 (Mar 20, 2012)

tim1807 said:


> + One WTC and One57. Both T/O, but still UC.
> 
> Btw it's kinda hard to make an accurate list.


He had 4 u/c and 2 t/o. Sooo


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## cfredo (Jul 9, 2012)

Amastroi2017 said:


> Nice to see all the discussion so far.
> 
> Just wanted to mention that topped out buildings are obviously not complete and a building doesn't count towards the 10 until it is fully complete.
> 
> ...


You forgot Heung Kong Tower, Kingkey Xiasha Project and Shenzhen World Finance Center. All 3 are supertalls and already U/C.


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## Amastroi2017 (Jun 17, 2012)

^^
I am only looking at buildings 1,000+ feet in roof height. The three you mentioned are all under 1,000 feet.


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## cfredo (Jul 9, 2012)

Oh right...I should have read your first post more carefully. 
I used the SSC supertall definition (>300m).


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## univer (Oct 25, 2012)

Amastroi2017 said:


> For example, Shenzhen has a lot of work to do to make it to 10+ buildings complete that are 1,000+ feet in roof height by 2020.
> 
> However with the plethera of buildings continuing to be proposed in Shenzhen along with those already proposed, the city has an excellent chance to make it to 10 if not 15+ by 2020.
> 
> ...


So here is the list of *300m+ in Shenzhen in roof height by 2017*

1.Pingan International Finance Centre- 588m 2015 U/C 
2.KK100- 442m 2012 Completed 
3.Gemdale Gangxia Project Tower- 375m 2016 U/C
4.China Chuneng Tower	- 333m 2016 U/C 
5.Hon Kwok City Center	- 329m 2015 U/C 
6.Shun Hing Square- 325m 1996 Completed 

7.Hanking Center - 320m 2017 U/C 
8.East Pacific Center Towers A- 309m 2013 T/O 
9.Shenzhen World Finance Center- 304m 2015	U/C 
10.Heung Kong Tower- 301m 2014	U/C 
11.Kingkey Xiasha Project- 300m 2017 U/C


with many proposed supertall, Shenzhen has chance to make more than 15 supertalls *in 2020*:banana:
http://skyscraperpage.com/diagrams/?


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## Pals_RGB (Apr 1, 2013)

Shenzhen
Dubai
Guangzhou
Tianjin
Newyork
Mumbai
Nanjing
-----------
Outside chances -
Shanghai
Wuhan
Chongqing
Dalian
Kuala Lumpur


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## QuantumX (Mar 19, 2008)

cfredo said:


> Oh right...I should have read your first post more carefully.
> I used the SSC supertall definition (>300m).


That is actually the CTBUH's definition of a supertall, Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. By their definition, Chicago actually has 6 supertalls, though most people only count 4 for Chicago. Also, some of you might want to go over New York's tally again. Since you are not counting spires and only to the roof, New York may not have 10 supertalls by 2020.


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## Azrain98 (Nov 27, 2011)

heyyyy what about Jakarta and Manila??


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## KillerZavatar (Jun 22, 2010)

Azrain98 said:


> heyyyy what about Jakarta and Manila??


not until 2020. manila only has 3 in the near future and i doubt 7 more will be finished until 2020. give it 10 more years and it will have.
Jakarta has a better chance, but even if most proposed buildings will be built very soon it may end up at 8 and that is already counting quite high. i would be happy to be surprised though.


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## Pals_RGB (Apr 1, 2013)

Azrain98 said:


> heyyyy what about Jakarta and Manila??


Right now only one supertall u/c in Jakarta and two in Manila if i am not wrong.


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## wino (Sep 8, 2009)

^^ We only have* one ACTIVE super tall project *under construction in Manila right now.. (And TBH, construction is very slow.. it's barely moving.. but at least moving. )

*The Stratford Residences* 312 meters 76flrs	2015* Under construction*
*Skycity* 335 meters 80 flrs Several basement floors partially built *(on-hold)* (Almost dead????)

Hopefully, more will follow.. but other proposals are currently on hold. (OR ALREADY DIED.. :lol
*One Galleon Place* 400 meters	75 flrs Planned/On Hold



So looking at the current progress... Sad to say, I don't think Manila would make it by 2020.
I guess Philippine developers aren't to keen in building supertalls... 100m+ is a different story though.

good luck Jakarta!!

from South East Asia, I'd say Kuala Lumpur has the best chance.. but not too sure still..


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