# Chaotic Dubai builds up...as oil dries up



## samsonyuen (Sep 23, 2003)

Maybe Abu Dhabi isn't as eager to capitalize because it doesn't have to worry about oil running out.


----------



## Newcastle Guy (Jul 8, 2005)

lotrfan55345 said:


> Damn... I hope they don't end up like LONDON!
> lol


Other way round mate. Other way round.


----------



## Tom_Green (Sep 4, 2004)

A comparison to show that Dubai don`t have too many skyscrapers.

Dubai:
Population: 1,2 million
skyscrapers: 174

Frankfurt
Population: 0,7 million
skyscrapers: 283


----------



## dubaiflo (Jan 3, 2005)

wickedestcity said:


> i dont see the demand = the supply in dubai



right because demand >> supply in Dubai.


that is why they are building.

can u image a city without demand for res or off space where they have to set a 15% rents rise per year cap, so that it won't get too expensive for the population which would be unhealthy for growth?


----------



## staff (Oct 23, 2004)

Tom_Green said:


> A comparison to show that Dubai don`t have too many skyscrapers.
> 
> Dubai:
> Population: 1,2 million
> ...


Frankfurt is in a metro area of 5-6 million, and most of Dubai's 1,2 million population are foreign (underpaid) workers (?)...


----------



## Tom_Green (Sep 4, 2004)

staff said:


> Frankfurt is in a metro area of 5-6 million, and most of Dubai's 1,2 million population are foreign (underpaid) workers (?)...


The amount of 283 skyscrapers is only for the city with 0.7 million people. In the big metro you have cities like Offenbach with skyscrapers, too. But they are not included in the amount of 283. So the metro of 5-6 million has much more skyscrapers.

Dubais metro is also much larger. Arround 2 million people, i think.


You are a European, as i am, with a large horizon. So why do you have such prejudice against Dubai? Why can`t you believe that Dubai is already a great, interesting and friendly city?


----------



## sebvill (Apr 13, 2005)

My best wishes to Dubai. For me is a symbol that with hard-working and vision you can create great things, humanity power.


----------



## wenders (Jan 10, 2008)

ss. I trade water for oil..price? a bargain


----------



## AltinD (Jul 15, 2004)

^^ How come a newbie digs up a 1.5 years old thread? Continue like this and life in the forum will be short for you.


----------



## QatPhils (Dec 14, 2006)

wow 500 is high!


----------



## Mr. Uncut (Jan 13, 2008)

If the oil dries out, Dubai will become huge problems. Economic growth will decrease in the next 20 years singificantly. At the end, they must indroduce high taxes and the "tax-free paradise" does not longer exist. With a small population of 1,3 mil Dubai does not have the needed city size, to be independent from problems such as shrinking economy and tourism rates. Dubai is i "one-decade-boom-town". That´s my opinion...

I know a big business man from Lower Manhattan. 4 years ago, he wanted to emmigrate to UAE and become a part of the economic boom. But today, he does not longer have this opinion, because the controller´s advise this alternative. In summer 2008 he will expand his company to East Asia (Shanghai and Singapore). Theses cities are more stable and have very big economies with high growth rates (esp. Shanghai)!

Cheers,

Patrick:banana:


----------



## QatPhils (Dec 14, 2006)

^^How will it have problems as oil decrease, it plans to have it's economy based on tourism and financial markets.


----------



## Mr. Uncut (Jan 13, 2008)

4I.â.B4 said:


> ^^How will it have problems as oil decrease, it plans to have it's economy based on tourism and financial markets.


yes, it *plan´s*! But the money of the state UAE will reducing fast, if the oil dries out. And with a city with a pop of 1.3 mil you can´t build a international economy! The oil is for Dubai what´s the cars were for Detroit. And look at Detroit today. Before 60 years a important north american economy city, today a shrinking industrial ruin. Nobody of this time (1940´s) would belive, what Detroit is today. Just like Dubai, everybody think´s this is the new megacity, but this city is also based an oil. And if the oil dries out, the economy of Dubai will collapse like a house of cards! The oil-independent economy is to small, for finance such big construction sites. 

Cheers,

Patrick


----------



## fettekatz (Oct 17, 2007)

^^ Dubai still has the chance to be a major transport hub in the future... as it is now. Of course such economy is greatly dependent on foreign markets. Remember the ancient silk route? As it became to dangerous to travel across central asia, the main trade route between china and the mediterranean collapsed. The europeans then searched for new routes and became sea powers which rendered all trade cities along the silk road unimportant....


----------



## Mr. Uncut (Jan 13, 2008)

fettekatz said:


> ^^ Dubai still has the chance to be a major transport hub in the future... as it is now. Of course such economy is greatly dependent on foreign markets. Remember the ancient silk route? As it became to dangerous to travel across central asia, the main trade route between china and the mediterranean collapsed. The europeans then searched for new routes and became sea powers which rendered all trade cities along the silk road unimportant....


For an international transportation hub (german: du meinst jetzt sicher ein Drehkreuz für Flugzeuge??) is Dubai to small. I know, Frankfurt has a pop of 600.000 but FFM is also a big agglo of 4 mil (incl Mainz, Wiesbaden, Hanu usw.). That´s the difference! Dubai will became a important transport hub in Near East but for an international the city is to small and insignificant. Of course the skyline is really amazing, but at all the location and the oil-depending economy is a future problem of these city.

Cheers (Gruß)

Patrick


----------



## Mercutio (Oct 15, 2004)

Mr. Uncut said:


> yes, it *plan´s*! But the money of the state UAE will reducing fast, if the oil dries out. And with a city with a pop of 1.3 mil you can´t build a international economy! The oil is for Dubai what´s the cars were for Detroit. And look at Detroit today. Before 60 years a important north american economy city, today a shrinking industrial ruin. Nobody of this time (1940´s) would belive, what Detroit is today. Just like Dubai, everybody think´s this is the new megacity, but this city is also based an oil. And if the oil dries out, the economy of Dubai will collapse like a house of cards! The oil-independent economy is to small, for finance such big construction sites.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Patrick


I think you are very wrong on two accounts. 

First, Dubai’s population is likely to double to 3 million just within the next 10 years, maybe even earlier. In addition to that, two smaller emirates, Sharjah and Ajman, lay right next to Dubai and add almost one million people to its metro area (~2.5 million). Furthermore, Dubai is also not a city state but it is integral part of the United Arab Emirates, a country with 4.5 million inhabitants. The population of the UAE as a whole is one of the fastest growing in the world. The UAE is also member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a trade bloc involving all the oil rich Gulf States including heavy weight Saudi Arabia. Just recently, the GCC has launched successfully a common market and it has broader plans for a monetary union. To sum it up, Dubai has a rapidly growing population and it is pursuing regional economic integration with its wealty neighbours.

Second, while Dubai may run out of oil in a decade or two, the UAE as a whole won’t or at least not in our lifetime. If Abu Dhabi maintains current production levels, the Emirates will have oil for 100 more years. If Dubai would really face serious financial problems in the future I doubt Abu Dhabi would remain completely idle. Anyway, since the oil sector contributes only around 5 percent to Dubai’s GDP, the question when oil runs out does not really matter that much to begin with. Dubai is by far the place which has done the best job to diversify away from oil dependency.

http://www.ameinfo.com/122863.html


Cheers :cheers:


----------



## LMCA1990 (Jun 18, 2005)

I'm still shocked at the amount of projects in Dubai. I just hope they don't have empty skyscrapers when they're finished.


----------



## Mr. Uncut (Jan 13, 2008)

Mercutio said:


> I think you are very wrong on two accounts.
> 
> First, Dubai’s population is likely to double to 3 million just within the next 10 years, maybe even earlier. In addition to that, two smaller emirates, Sharjah and Ajman, lay right next to Dubai and add almost one million people to its metro area (~2.5 million). Furthermore, Dubai is also not a city state but it is integral part of the United Arab Emirates, a country with 4.5 million inhabitants. The population of the UAE as a whole is one of the fastest growing in the world. The UAE is also member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a trade bloc involving all the oil rich Gulf States including heavy weight Saudi Arabia. Just recently, the GCC has launched successfully a common market and it has broader plans for a monetary union. To sum it up, Dubai has a rapidly growing population and it is pursuing regional economic integration with its wealty neighbours.
> 
> ...



what i wanted to say is that all these fast growing numbers (economy, population etc.) are going to decrease within next years (population growth already negative trend in Near East, from 5 % to 4% in 3 years for exmpl in UAE). I know 3 companies, who just came back from Dubai, because the economy is to unstable to operate for a longer time. The most go to Asia in megacities like Shanghai, Jakarta or Manila not in "economic villages" like Dubai. Years ago no one see this problem but in the last 2 - 3 years a lot change their mind and invest in bigger (most asian) cities. The international support is declining in last years and for a small city like Dubai this can be a big problem.

Cheers,

Patrick


----------



## gonzalo12345 (Jul 27, 2006)

i guess I'll be move to Dubai


----------



## luv2bebrown (Nov 4, 2004)

Mr. Uncut said:


> what i wanted to say is that all these fast growing numbers (economy, population etc.) are going to decrease within next years (population growth already negative trend in Near East, from 5 % to 4% in 3 years for exmpl in UAE). I know 3 companies, who just came back from Dubai, because the economy is to unstable to operate for a longer time. The most go to Asia in megacities like Shanghai, Jakarta or Manila not in "economic villages" like Dubai. Years ago no one see this problem but in the last 2 - 3 years a lot change their mind and invest in bigger (most asian) cities. The international support is declining in last years and for a small city like Dubai this can be a big problem.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Patrick


population growth in dubai is very high.
population of dubai today is at least 1.7 million. last year's census was a very shabby job... did not coutn a lot of residents and came up at 1.4 million.
1.7 million excludes sharjah + the metro. metro population of 2.5-2.7 million.
with 200,000-300,000 people moving to the city each year, it will be bigger than Singapore in a few years. 

also, oil accounts for only 3% of Dubai's GDP today. down from aroudn 33% maybe 15 years ago.

you know 3 companies that left Dubai, I know of several who came to Dubai... one of them is called Halliburton.

dont think the city's prospects is quite as bleak as you think


----------

