# Will Shanghai surpass Tokyo?



## Donkie (Mar 5, 2003)

I HAVE NO IDEA


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## InitialD18 (Sep 17, 2002)

personally i don't think hk and sing could compare to shanghai or tokyo in scale ... 
hk and sing are quite a bit richer than shanghai ... 
they are small specialized gateway cities ... 
hk and sing just doesn't have the backing 
like what tokyo and shanghai has ... 
plus they are small ... 
however there functions will always be very important in asia ... 

however i do see shanghai to be the king of asia 
along with tokyo one day ... 
however for shanghai to truly surpass tokyo in every single aspects ... i doubt if its possible in 30 years ... 
as tokyo won't stop moving ... 
and i also see seoul rising up the latter also ... 
however i do see them being seen equal in 
global importance term in 30 years or less


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## YangtzeSea (Jan 8, 2005)

*What I can assert is that no city has greater potential than Shanghai in Asia Pacific. But it will cost a long time (30 years or even more) for Shanghai to surpass Tokyo.*


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## shibuya_suki (Apr 24, 2005)

^the greatest potential of shanghai is only for the large developing market,huge population, and economic,thats you cant find such this potetial in the entire world now...

but no democracy,dictatorship,corruption,economic system still not mature as well as western countries,quality of citizen,government administrative eficient..... those problem still exist in shanghai,dont take too optimistic,there are so much social and political problem beside the greatest econmic potential of the world...


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## superchan7 (Jan 21, 2004)

Time will tell how China handles these problems.


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## bustero (Dec 20, 2004)

Sooner as Shanghai will not only increase in power and stature and wealth but the other end of the equation is that Tokyo and Japan will decline. Many estimates show that their population will go down by 25% by 2050 if present levels decline. And that is with the worlds longest lived people. So a big city with a lot of old people if they continue to stay there in a country which has a hard time tolerating migrants and integrating them will surely fade unless something dramatic (highly unlikely) happens in terms of demography.


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## Q-TIP (Feb 14, 2005)

In short, I'd say it would surpass Tokyo in population, but take a longer time for it to dominate China, let alone Asia.


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## tom042 (Apr 22, 2005)

I'd guess that Shanghai will surpass Tokyo for population fairly soon, especially if China frees up internal migration--I'm sure there's quite a bit of pent up demand among rural migrants to move to wealthy cities, as km-sh points out, there are already millions of "unofficial" residents. Combined with Tokyo's soon-to-be declining population, I'd give about 20-35 years until Shanghai is larger in population.

Economically, I'd say things are less certain and it will take quite a bit longer for Shanghai's economy to be larger than Tokyo's. I'd say 45-65 years for that to happen.


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## howelee (Dec 27, 2004)

although in infrastructure,Shanghai may reach the level of Tokyo shortly, it still has a long way in terms of software, for instance law, business environment, universtities, , welfare


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## Nick (Sep 13, 2002)

Tokyo is very big and most important city and capital of Aisa's largest economy.It may remain the biggest city in the world for sometime yet.

As for importance.China will overtake Japan in the next 20 years.Shanghai will soon follow as Aisa's most important city I think.


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## Sen (Nov 13, 2004)

howelee said:


> although in infrastructure,Shanghai may reach the level of Tokyo shortly, it still has a long way in terms of software, for instance law, business environment, universtities, , welfare


I agree. A great city is not only about infrastrcture. i think Shanghai is also rapidly improving in those areas, but there's much to be done.


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## InitialD18 (Sep 17, 2002)

don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ... 
This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy 
Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market 
HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
the pair is in other words quite complementary ... 

In the short term I do think this to be quite true ... as i see china with multiple centres in the future ...


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## unimetro (May 8, 2005)

InitialD18 said:


> don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
> This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
> Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
> HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
> ...


I agree. shanghai won't surpass tokyo at least in the first half of 21th centry. 

Also when talk about shanghai,don't put beijing aside which eventually will come to be one of the greatest city like London, Paris,etc.


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## ncik (Nov 12, 2004)

dont forget Tokyo is CLEAN


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## rocky (Apr 20, 2005)

Depends of china policy. if they try to develop many cities at the same time or if they try to centralise the power in Shangai


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## Tom_Green (Sep 4, 2004)

I hope Shanghai will become like Tokyo. 
When i think about a city with over 50.000.000 people in the future i can only imagine Shanghai. Shanghai is together with Dubai the city with the biggest construction boom. I hope it will go on and i hope the people in Shanghai will not become like the people in Shenzhen.

Shanghai will surpass Tokyo in importance in 30 years but i don`t know if Shanghai will be ever the better city to life. I can`t even imagine that the people in Shanghai will be ever richer than the people in Tokyo.


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## fttd (Apr 16, 2005)

shanghai is a amazing booming city



InitialD18 said:


> don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
> This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
> Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
> HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
> ...


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## Accura4Matalan (Jan 7, 2004)

If China maintains its current rate of growth for another decade then I'd say yes.


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## km-sh (Mar 3, 2004)

InitialD18 said:


> don't forget seoul ... the city is really booming as of late ...
> This is how elton of HSBC described HK and Shanghai in the chinese economy
> Shanghai is more like tokyo ... more dedication to serve the massive domestic market
> HK is more like London ... more dedication to serve as a international and offshore financial centre
> ...


the MAIN Centers of China
North China:Beijing +Tianjin
SouthEastern China: the Yangtse Rive delta
Southern China:the Pearl River delta
Southwestern China:Chongqing+Chengdu
Northwestern China:Xi'an
Central China:Wuhan
Northeastern China:Shengyang+Dalian


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## Zarkon (Dec 22, 2004)

No, I don't think..


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## Victoria (Feb 23, 2005)

Perhaps, you never know.


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## London™ (Jan 12, 2003)

Not in the next 50 years, but it might in the second half of this century.


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