# biggest cities in the future??



## Azia (Nov 18, 2007)

what must be the biggest cities in the future , will tokyo still be the first or are there are other cities that will be bigger ..

and for north america will nyc stay on top or is la the biggest in future , wit its grow rates ??


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## erbse (Nov 8, 2006)

Neubrandenburg will clearly trump them all.


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## **RS** (Jul 13, 2008)

I think that Moscow,Shanghai and Mumbai will be biggest cities in the future. And for North America...Mexico is current largest city,and it still be biggest for my opinion.


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## Nsch (Feb 19, 2009)

chinesse´s cities will...


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## aaabbbccc (Mar 8, 2009)

cairo lagos the 2 biggest by far in africa


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## dnobsemajdnob (Jan 29, 2009)

**RS** said:


> I think that Moscow,Shanghai and Mumbai will be biggest cities in the future. And for North America...Mexico is current largest city,and it still be biggest for my opinion.


NY is the largest in NA and likely will remain as such. Practically every list of the world's largest cities show Mexico City and Sao Paulo as the third and fourth largest after Tokyo and NY.

The biggest cities in the future though likely will be in China and India.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

I'll give newcomers the chance. I bet that no city of the now top-5 will be there in 50 years. Now the top-5 is Tokyo, Seoul, New York, Mexico-City and Sao-Paulo. In 50 years, the biggest cities could be (no specific order) Mumbai, Karachi, Shanghai (or Lagos, depends on if Nigeria will start to develop or not), Hongkong (after 2047, when Hongkong will really merge with mainland China) and Dhaka. Addis Abeba is also a good candidate. 2050 it will be the capital of a country that is 300 million people strong.

I also think that LA will pass NY as the biggest Metro-area in the USA. Just look at the trend. In 1990 NY was 5 million people or 34% bigger than LA. Now NY is 4 million or 22,6% bigger.


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## Xusein (Sep 27, 2005)

Chrissib said:


> Addis Abeba is also a good candidate. 2050 it will be the capital of a country that is 300 million people strong.


Ethiopia? I don't think it will ever have that much. And if it did, that would be a disaster.

Besides urbanization in that country is so low. Things could change, but still...


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## spotila (Oct 29, 2004)

Can't disagree with that, Mumbai, Karachi, Shanghai, Dhaka, Lagos all contenders depending on how far into the future we are talking. Tokyo and Mexico City would continue to feature don't you think


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## monkeyronin (May 18, 2006)

Chrissib said:


> I also think that LA will pass NY as the biggest Metro-area in the USA. Just look at the trend. In 1990 NY was 5 million people or 34% bigger than LA. Now NY is 4 million or 22,6% bigger.


Maybe eventually, but certainly not in the next 41 years based on current growth rates. Even going by the fact that the difference between the two has shrunk by 1 million in the past 19 years, it'd take another 76 years for the two to have equal populations. And then consider that in more recent years, Los Angeles' advantage in growth has shrunk somewhat.


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## Liwwadden (Nov 12, 2005)

From what I looks right now, cities in India or China (at least in Asia) will be the biggest.


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## brisavoine (Mar 19, 2006)

Several people have mentioned Lagos, but in fact Kinshasa is going to be far more populated than Lagos. At the 2006 Nigerian census, which foreign demographers (who helped organize the census) think was the best and most accurate census ever carried out in Nigeria, the population of the Lagos urban area (Metropolitan Lagos) turned out to be only 7,937,932 people, i.e. far lower than had been expected. Lagos is growing fast, but not as fast as people thought, because the northern Muslim states of Nigeria attract lost of migrants.

In comparison, Kinshasa has about 8 million inhabitants (as of 2007), its population having been inflated by refugees during the Congolese civil war, and if we include Brazzaville located across the Congo River, then the Kinshasa-Brazzaville connurbation has 9.5 million people. Kinshasa is still growing very fast, in fact faster than Lagos, being located in a country with a crazy demographic growth, higher than the Nigerian demographic growth. So it's pretty obvious Kinshasa will very soon pass Lagos and become the most populated city in subsaharan Africa. It should also pass Cairo either in the 2010s or in the 2020s and become the most populated African city.

How many inhabitants will Kinshasa reach in the end, it's hard to tell. Congo currently has 66 million inhabitants, so Kinshasa accounts for 12% of the Congolese population. In 2050, thanks to crazy demographic growth, Congo should reach between 148 and 189 million inhabitants, depending on sources. If Kinshasa still accounts for 12% of the Congolese population, that means Kinshasa would have 18 to 23 million inhabitants by 2050. But then we know that when a country urbanizes (Congo is still largely rural and will urbanize over time), the largest city's share of the population tends to increase, so in 2050 Kinshasa will probably account for more than 12% of the Congolese population. If it reached 20% of the Congolese population in 2050, it would have 30 to 38 million inhabitants. If we add Brazzaville, which could easily reach 3 million by 2050, we're looking at a connurbation that could have more than 40 million inhabitants in 2050.

These figures are a bit dizzying. How will they manage to ensure proper living for so many people is also a worrying question. Today's Kinshasa, with 8 million people, is already in dire straits (the local inhabitants have mockingly changed the official nickname of the city, "Kin la belle", i.e. "Kinshasa the beautiful", into "Kin la poubelle", i.e. "Kinshasa the garbage"), so I can't imagine Kinshasa with 40 million people. You can see pictures of today's daily life in the mind-boggling metropolis of Kinshasa here (it's a thread I created some time ago): http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=19968564


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

Xusein said:


> Ethiopia? I don't think it will ever have that much. And if it did, that would be a disaster.
> 
> Besides urbanization in that country is so low. Things could change, but still...


Only if it stays in poverty. If Ethiopia chooses to develop, it surely can feed all these people.


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## Xusein (Sep 27, 2005)

If it ever gets to that level, it will never develop. This is the truth for most African nations.

I honestly don't see much good for these African cities population-wise if they are already having overcrowding problems. This is a time bomb.


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## rosn19 (Oct 10, 2008)

Xusein said:


> If it ever gets to that level, it will never develop. This is the truth for most African nations.
> 
> I honestly don't see much good for these African cities population-wise if they are already having overcrowding problems. This is a time bomb.


Agree! It's so sad to see the demographic explosion in those underdeveloped countries in Subsaharan Africa and South Asia. I feel sorry for all those poor souls being born there (in fact, I had a nightmare where I died and was reborn in the Congo:lol::nuts. I can just imagine Kinshasa being one of the world's largest cities by 2040 with over 80% of it's population living in misery. It will most certainly be a humanitarian disaster. By judging the current economic, social and political situations of countries like Sri Lanka, Nigeria or the Congo (D.R.) I doubt that they will be anywhere near developed by then.


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## deranged (Jan 22, 2009)

In 2050, I would say:

Worldwide - Mumbai, Shanghai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Delhi, Tokyo 

USA/Canada - New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington-Baltimore, Toronto
Latin America - Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Lima, Rio de Janeiro, Bogota, Belo Horizonte
Europe - Istanbul, Moscow, London, Paris, Madrid, Ruhr
Africa - Kinshasa, Lagos, Cairo, Khartoum, Johannesburg, Addis Ababa


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## oliver999 (Aug 4, 2006)

mumbai


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## kids (Dec 12, 2004)

When Africa's industrialized - who knows, maybe Nairobi-Mombasa or Dakar?


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## aaabbbccc (Mar 8, 2009)

casablanca I wonder about my home town but it has small population 
only 5 million for greater metro area by 2050 it will be 8 or maybe 9 million at best


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## jpsolarized (May 3, 2009)

watch out for Johannesburg.....i read somewhere it will reach 15 millions before 2050

China for sure will be highly urbanized within 20 years from now

in the world it seems that:

in America - Mexico city will surely overpass New York, Sao Paulo too will grow much bigger than NY. Toronto is growing very fast. Las Vegas, Atlanta, Phoenix, San Diego will be much bigger and will surely surprise in the future for being very big cities

in Europe - everything seems pretty much stucked in there in population growth, but London, Paris, Moscow, Madrid i guess will still be leaders in the future

in Asia - Vietnamese cities, Thai cities, Philiphine cities and of course Indian and Chinese cities will multiply several times their sizes within a 10 years lapsus. Japan and south corea seem to have been stuck and will slowly start decreasing their population.

in Africa - Nigeria will have alot of 1 million + cities for sure, Central Africa will start heavily urbanizing sooner or later for sure. 

Oceania - Australia seems to be having a healthy population growth lately, and if i'm not mistaken, the best out of the developed countries. i think Sydney will reach 6 million by 2050. New Zealand is doing ok aswell, better than most, if not all European countries. Papua New Guinea will grow big in the coming years. 

all this info is infered from demography articles i read .

perhaps Shanghai having 40 something millions by 2050? Mumbai 40 something millions by 2050?


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## the spliff fairy (Oct 21, 2002)

Ive heard the Nigerian and Ethiopian populations will near 300 million by 2050, Lagos and Addis Abeba are going to have epic growth. Its very interesting about the Kinshasa-Brazzaville conurbation nearing 10 million at the moment too. 
*
Africa's population will double within the next 30 years, from the 900 million extant today to 1.8 billion.* 71% of the population now is under 25. The cities will be huge, its the one place that is urbanising alongside China (currently seeing in the largest migration of humans in history- 350-400 million moving to the cities).


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

Xusein said:


> If it ever gets to that level, it will never develop. This is the truth for most African nations.
> 
> I honestly don't see much good for these African cities population-wise if they are already having overcrowding problems. This is a time bomb.


A high population is the best thing for developing! Because a high population lowers the distance between people and is so increasing the exchange between them. Densier populated countries are usually richer than sparsely populated countries. eg. out of the arab non-oil-countries, Egypt has developed the most in the last years. The main determinant of development is politics. You can see this by looking at countries that are or were divided in a capitalist and a communist country. In each case (Germany, China, Korea), the communist country had a lower population density than the capitalist country. In Germany both countries started equal, and in Korea the communist part was once more developed than South Korea. Although of the high population density (or because) they developed better than their communist counterparts which had more resources and a lower population density. 

Also, look at subnational levels. The densier parts of a country are nearly *always* more developed than the sparsely populated parts.


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## the spliff fairy (Oct 21, 2002)

In short I reckon the largest cities will be the ones to pass the 30 million mark, in no particular order:
*
Shanghai* -according to the Shanghai planning bureau the city will grow to 40 million in the best case, the worst scenario over *60 million*. The Yangtze River Delta currently holds 80 million (and growing), of which 50 million are urban.

Pearl River Delta (*Guangzhou-Shenzhen-HK*) currently holds *40 million*, and still growing massively, and connecting up fast.

*Chongqing* CSA currently at *34 million*, and growing by nearly a million a year. This is the fastest growing CSA in the world.

When the fingers of the Kanto Plain (read: *Tokyo*) megalopolis connect up to the Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto conurbation it will rise from 39 million to *56 million*. At the moment there are small gaps in the coastal strip, and one even smaller one across the mountains. Although Japan's population is falling, the cities are still growing as youth increasingly leave their emptied hometowns for the big city - to the experts surprise, after last year's census they discovered the Tokyo megalopolis had grown by 6 million in the last 10 years.

*Dhaka *- projected to be *20-30 million* in the next decade, currently at 15 million. This is the one major city for the worlds most densely populated large country of 140 million, which by CSA density rates would count as one contiguous urban area.

*Mumbai* - CSA currently at *21 million*, yet the urbanisiation of the majority of 1.1 billion Indians is still to emerge.

*Delhi *- as above. Delhi CSA, today at 21 million also forms the nexus of the biggest stretch of dense humanity on the planet.


for the African cities I would bet *Lagos, Addis Abeba, Kinshasa, Johannesburg* (although only a paltry 3 million today the CSA is far larger and some predict a city of 25 million by 2025). Africas largest city *Cairo* also, currently at 17 million yet having 50 million in the narrow strip of the Nile River Valley. 2000 newcomers arrive on its streets every day.

*Manila* - CSA currently at *20 million,* the only megalopolis of a country of 100 million.

*Jakarta* - at the moment the Jabodetabek metro counts over *23 million* on an island of 125 million, in a country of 240 million.


*Seoul* CSA counts *26 million*. If (some say when) the north and south unite, another 23 million impoverished North Koreans live 35 miles away across the border.

Mexico City - CSA 25 million, predicted to be *50 million* within the next 10-20 years.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

the spliff fairy said:


> Ive heard the Nigerian and Ethiopian populations will near 300 million by 2050, Lagos and Addis Abeba are going to have epic growth. Its very inAteresting about the Kinshasa-Brazzaville conurbation nearing 10 million at the moment too.
> 
> Africa's population will double within the next 30 years, from the 900 million extant today to 1.8 billion. 71% of the population now is under 25. The cities will be huge, its the one place that is urbanising alongside China (currently seeing in the largest migration of humans in history- 350-400 million moving to the cities).
> 
> ...


Shanghai: Has even today no natural growth anymore, the migration wave will flat out, and the population is getting older, so increasing the natural decrease. 40 million would be the most positive case, 60 million is impossible to reach. But I think Shanghai will touch the 35 million mark, and then will shrink. The birth rate is way too low.
Also I wouldn't call 60 million the worst case but the best case. The population density would only be 10,000ppl/km², which is lower than the density of NYC or Tokyo and only half of the density of Paris. If Shanghai wants to be Asia's number one and the number one of the world, then it must have something over 50 million to compete with other urban elephants like Tokyo or Mumbai.

Chongqing: Has only 7 million inhabitants, the 34 million refer to the whole area, including vast countryside areas which are in no sense urban or suburban. It's like if you merge the Netherlands and Belgium into one city. The whole area is growing at roughly 0.5% a year, the city maybe with 3%, so in no case this is the fastest growing city of the world. Dubai is (or was) the fastest growing city with 7% annual growth. In absolute terms it'sa Delhi with 20 million and 4% growth, so adding 800,000 ppl/year. I also think that the chongqing wonder will last only for a short time. The Coastal provinces are way more attractive.

Mexico City: Doubling in 10-20 years is impossible. The annual growth had to be ca. 5%. Now it's at 0.7%. I don't think that Mexico City will double it's population at all in the next years. DF will face negative natural growth soon. Also, the north of Mexico is also very attractive. Mexico City CSA is already growing more slowly than Mexico at a whole!


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## null (Dec 11, 2002)

Chrissib said:


> Chongqing: Has only 7 million inhabitants, the 34 million refer to the whole area, including vast countryside areas which are in no sense urban or suburban. It's like if you merge the Netherlands and Belgium into one city. The whole area is growing at roughly 0.5% a year, the city maybe with 3%, so in no case this is the fastest growing city of the world. Dubai is (or was) the fastest growing city with 7% annual growth. In absolute terms it'sa Delhi with 20 million and 4% growth, so adding 800,000 ppl/year. I also think that the chongqing wonder will last only for a short time. The Coastal provinces are way more attractive.


Actually Chongqing has lots of subcenters, as shown on this map. The urbanised population is well above 10 million (7 million live in the main city) I guess.










for example, *江津* (Jiangjin, lower left on the map), a small dot marked on this map, looks like this in reality:










and *万州* (Wanzhou, upper right on the map), looks like this:


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## brisavoine (Mar 19, 2006)

Chrissib said:


> Chongqing: Has only 7 million inhabitants, the 34 million refer to the whole area, including vast countryside areas which are in no sense urban or suburban. It's like if you merge the Netherlands and Belgium into one city.


That's correct. The Chongqing municipality, which is more like a province than like a municipality really, covers 82,300 km². If you take 82,300 km² of land around Shanghai, there live 76.8 million people within those 82,300 km², so are we going to say that Shanghai has a metro area of 76.8 million people? :nuts:


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

^^Well, some facts about Chongqing(the latest figures):

The urbanization rate of the whole municipality of Chongqing is well above 50% so far and the total population is about 28.4m.

Chongqing's one hour economy circle has a population of about 17.1m excluding satellite cities that aren't within the municipality border such as GuangAn.

I don't know whether Chongqing is the fastest growing city of the world but Chongqing's real estate sales in volume is the highest of all Chinese cities. This data is only for Chongqing's 9 central districts which is far smaller in size than Beijing or Shanghai thereby it is actually underestimated.


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## brisavoine (Mar 19, 2006)

the spliff fairy said:


> Ive heard the Nigerian and Ethiopian populations will near 300 million by 2050


No. Ethiopia should have 148 to 174 million inhabitants in 2050, depending on sources. Only Nigeria will be near 300 million. It should have 282 to 289 million inhabitants in 2050, depending on sources.

These will be the most populated African countries in 2050:
1- Nigeria: 282 to 289 million
2- Congo (Dem Rep of): 148 to 189 million
3- Ethiopia: 148 to 174 million
4- Egypt: 118 to 130 million
5- Uganda: 91 to 106 million

Nigeria will be the size of today's Indonesia, and Congo and Ethiopia will be the size of today's Pakistan. In other words, they should still be lightweights worldwide despite their populations.


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## tiger (Aug 21, 2004)

brisavoine said:


> That's correct. The Chongqing municipality, which is more like a province than like a municipality really


China's municipality is very different from what you understand via the european peers. Chinese municipality means political and economic position. China only has four municipalities and each of them represents the economic and political center of a region recognized and even appointed by the central gov't. 

Beijing is the capital city of China.
Tianjin is the economic center of northern China.
Shanghai is the economic center of eastern China.
Chongqing is the economic center of the mid-western China.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

brisavoine said:


> No. Ethiopia should have 148 to 174 million inhabitants in 2050, depending on sources. Only Nigeria will be near 300 million. It should have 282 to 289 million inhabitants in 2050, depending on sources.
> 
> These will be the most populated African countries in 2050:
> 1- Nigeria: 282 to 289 million
> ...


OK I have used the figures from census.gov. They thikk that the decline in fertility-rates will be much slower than the standardized decline from the UN.


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## Daniel M Stein (Jan 20, 2009)

Shenzhen,Moscow,Dhaka,Istanbul.


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## the spliff fairy (Oct 21, 2002)

Chrissib said:


> Shanghai: Has even today no natural growth anymore, the migration wave will flat out, and the population is getting older, so increasing the natural decrease. 40 million would be the most positive case, 60 million is impossible to reach. But I think Shanghai will touch the 35 million mark, and then will shrink. The birth rate is way too low.
> Also I wouldn't call 60 million the worst case but the best case. The population density would only be 10,000ppl/km², which is lower than the density of NYC or Tokyo and only half of the density of Paris. If Shanghai wants to be Asia's number one and the number one of the world, then it must have something over 50 million to compete with other urban elephants like Tokyo or Mumbai.
> 
> Chongqing: Has only 7 million inhabitants, the 34 million refer to the whole area, including vast countryside areas which are in no sense urban or suburban. It's like if you merge the Netherlands and Belgium into one city. The whole area is growing at roughly 0.5% a year, the city maybe with 3%, so in no case this is the fastest growing city of the world. Dubai is (or was) the fastest growing city with 7% annual growth. In absolute terms it'sa Delhi with 20 million and 4% growth, so adding 800,000 ppl/year. I also think that the chongqing wonder will last only for a short time. The Coastal provinces are way more attractive.



Its not natural birth increase that is powering this, but the urbanisation of the country. Basically China is seeing the largest 
migration of humans in history - 130 million moved to urban areas during the first decade alone of policy change since 1990, 
another 350-400 million are expected to follow within the next two decades. There is very much room for Shanghai to hit 60 
million even without the outsiders - there are 80 million in this picture (only the dense urban centres are lighted, the sprawling 
residentials come out as a lighter tone)- and thats without the projected growth/ migration, nor the coming rise of the middle classes or the suburbanisation:











Hopefully the Council is planning several satellite cities to try and spread out the wave of newcomers^
but even then, and if all goes to plan that's still a projection of 40 million.


Also Chongqing has been called an 'articial' city - set up precisely to combat the rush to the coastal regions during the 1990s.
If you look at the Chinese growth demographics nowadays although the coastal regions are still growing, the interior cities are 
exploding - Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming, Changsha, Wuhan, places where its cheaper to set up shop and less regulated or 
competitive for space.


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## monkeyronin (May 18, 2006)

the spliff fairy said:


> In short I reckon the largest cities will be the ones to pass the 30 million mark, in no particular order:
> *
> Shanghai* -according to the Shanghai planning bureau the city will grow to 40 million in the best case, the worst scenario over *60 million*. The Yangtze River Delta currently holds 80 million (and growing), of which 50 million are urban.
> 
> ...


Why do you keep saying CSA? CSAs only exist and are therefore calculated in the US. And they're a pretty stupid measurement, in any event.


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## philvia (Jun 22, 2006)

i highly disagree with whoever said dallas, atlanta, dc, etc... they will be big, but hardly a contender for the biggest. 
I dont really expect LA to surpass NYC either, unless they start a mass urbanization.


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## LosAngelesSportsFan (Oct 20, 2004)

People, dont forget that past growth is not exactly the best indicator of future growth. Cities run into limitations and restrictions, disasters and economic trouble. With the dire health, water and food shortages around the world, we may see a slowdown in the world population, hopefully that is.


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## Bobsi (Dec 11, 2008)

The numbers for Africa seems way to optimistic imo.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

Bobsi said:


> The numbers for Africa seems way to optimistic imo.


Why? Do you think there is less growth?


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## _Night City Dream_ (Jan 3, 2008)

**RS** said:


> I think that Moscow,Shanghai and Mumbai will be biggest cities in the future. And for North America...Mexico is current largest city,and it still be biggest for my opinion.


Agree. But I'd say lots of China's cities are going to be among the biggest. And that will happen in the nearest future.

Actually, I think cities of the BRIC will be leading, but that will happen in 50 years perhaps.

Moscow definitely will be the biggest in Europe leaving far away all cities in Germany, France, Great Britain etc. Moscow is currently a huge city and its agglomeration is way bigger. Then, the population is continously growing. The agglomeration current estimated population (unofficial figure) is over 18 - 20 million people. And Moscow could have been developing much quicker unless a very bad transport infrastructure (road system, yards, public transport) except the excellent underground.


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## rosn19 (Oct 10, 2008)

I can't picture a developed African country that is not in northern Africa or the Republic of South Africa, I think they will still be developing but with not so bad standards of living. As for Mexican cities in general, they will probably have very little, to negative growth starting as early as 10 years from now. The ones that I think will see some growth are cities here in the north of Mexico, but I doubt that Monterrey will become a megacity, right now its population is of 1.1 million (3.4 million with the inclusion of the metropolitan area). Mexico City is at about 8 million in the city right now; 19 million with the inclusion of the metropolitan area. At most, Mexico City might peak at about 25-28 million by the 2020s. Guadalajara has a severe negative population growth, and it has only 4.7 million in its metro area, ( 2.5 million in the city). I don't think any Mexican city will be in the top 5 biggest cities in the world by 2023-2030, in fact, I think Sao Paulo has already more population than Mexico City.


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## Anderson Geimz (Mar 29, 2008)

Indeed. Sao Paulo is the biggest city in the Americas as well as the Southern Hemisphere. It's also 2nd biggest in the world after Tokyo if we go by combined/extended metropolitan area (CSA equivalent).


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## dnobsemajdnob (Jan 29, 2009)

I don't think that you're right, but who knows. What's your source?

Anyway, Mexico City, is one of the best cities in the Americas.


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## Anderson Geimz (Mar 29, 2008)

My source is reality.

If New York is 22 million/30,000 sq km and Mexico City 26 million/25,000 sq km, then, comparing apples to apples Sao Paulo is 27.2 million/23,000 sq km.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_São_Paulo

If you want to go by MSA or equivalent standards, then it is New York 18.8 million/17,400 sq km and Mexico City 19.2 million/7,900 sq km and Sao Paulo 19.6 million/7,900 sq km.

The equivalent for the New York CSA of 22 million is not just the metropolitan area of Mexico City, but the combined metro areas of MC, Puebla, Toluca, etc. And even then it takes up a much smaller area.

In lists we always see New York quoted under its highest possible number (sometimes even combined with Philly!), it's only fair we try to use the same standards for other cities too. New York is the world's 9th largest city (CSA) not the 2nd!


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## Minato ku (Aug 9, 2005)

Chrissib said:


> Mexico is growing faster than the US, but I think only for an additional 10 years.


Mexico city growth rate is lower than Mexico.
The city is concidered to be too expensive, too crowded, too pollued, it is not anymore attractive for the Mexican.
They can have a better quality of life in other big mexican cities.

Mexico city growth is mostly due at foreign immigration.


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## dnobsemajdnob (Jan 29, 2009)

Re: Post No. 62.

I'm not sure that's correct, but it's interesting. 

Anyway, I don't think that cities in the Americas or Europe will be as big as ones in Asia in the future.

Shanghai will be even more amazing than it is now and may surpass Tokyo as the world's biggest city. How big do you calculate Shanghai and Mumbai to be by that formula?


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## Anderson Geimz (Mar 29, 2008)

Noone can predict what cities will be biggest, so why even bother.

As this thread proves, it already is hard to determine what the biggest cities are currently!

I don't think anything will pass Tokyo in the near future. Even with Hangzhou and Suzhou added to Shanghai's "CSA" (combined metro area) it is nowhere near an equivalent CSA for Tokyo (which would be somewhere in the neighbourhood of 45 million).


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## dnobsemajdnob (Jan 29, 2009)

One thing that does seem clear is:

The 19th Century was the European Century;

The 20th Century was the American Century; and

The 21st Century is the Asian Century!


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## Xusein (Sep 27, 2005)

dnobsemajdnob said:


> Why would Mexico exceed NY in growth? The two cities' metro areas are roughly equal now, although NY's is slightly larger. However, the US is growing dramatically, but I am not aware that Mexico is. Is it?


Well, NYC and the Northeast hasn't been the epicenter of this "dramatic growth" for a while.


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## Anderson Geimz (Mar 29, 2008)

dnobsemajdnob said:


> One thing that does seem clear is:
> 
> The 19th Century was the European Century;
> 
> ...


Also not really true...


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## dnobsemajdnob (Jan 29, 2009)

Why not?

Most economists believe that Asian countries (particularly China and India) will surpass European ones and at least rival, if not exceed, the US.

With their great natural resources, African countries might also grow substantially.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

dnobsemajdnob said:


> Why not?
> 
> Most economists believe that Asian countries (particularly China and India) will surpass European ones and at least rival, if not exceed, the US.
> 
> With their great natural resources, African countries might also grow substantially.


Demographically seen, Asia is already on the decline. This decline is more severe than that in Europe or North America.


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## Xusein (Sep 27, 2005)

^ You mean East Asia don't you?


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## rosn19 (Oct 10, 2008)

Minato ku said:


> Mexico city growth rate is lower than Mexico.
> The city is concidered to be too expensive, too crowded, too pollued, it is not anymore attractive for the Mexican.
> They can have a better quality of life in other big mexican cities.
> 
> Mexico city growth is mostly due at foreign immigration.


Yea, true, most people here in Mexico try to avoid living in the Federal District or its metropolitan area. Large cities other than the capital like Santiago de Queretaro, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Saltillo, Chihuahua. They have much better qualities of life than the capital. There was this study done by the census ministry that the people from the capital usually suffer more stress than in any other city in the country mainly because of the things you mentioned above.


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## Positronn (Jan 25, 2008)

Anderson Geimz said:


> Also not really true...


There are more 91 years in this century before we can say that. But i think that guy is right about 21st century being the Asian one.


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## isaidso (Mar 21, 2007)

dnobsemajdnob said:


> Why would Mexico exceed NY in growth? The two cities' metro areas are roughly equal now, although NY's is slightly larger. However, the US is growing dramatically, but I am not aware that Mexico is. Is it?


US figures for metropolitan populations tend to be very generous compared to what is considered part of the metropolitan population for cities in Canada. I'm not sure if other countries in America use the more stringent Canadian criteria or one closer to the US Census Bureau criteria. 

It's somewhat difficult to accurately compare population figures from country to country, but am of the opinion that Mexico City is already bigger than New York City. Sao Paolo might be as well. Title of largest city in America is really a contest between these 3 cities, but I gave the nod to Mexico City. It's growth is slowing, but will probably stay ahead of New York in total size. 

New York will be a big powerful city for a long time, but I'm of the opinion that other large cities in the US like Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas will be the chief benefactors of large population growth within the United States.

Sao Paolo? It might be #1 in America, but it's really just a guessing game. Largest cities on other continents is an easier decision.


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## bayviews (Mar 3, 2006)

isaidso said:


> US figures for metropolitan populations tend to be very generous compared to what is considered part of the metropolitan population for cities in Canada. I'm not sure if other countries in America use the more stringent Canadian criteria or one closer to the US Census Bureau criteria.
> 
> It's somewhat difficult to accurately compare population figures from country to country, but am of the opinion that Mexico City is already bigger than New York City. Sao Paolo might be as well. Title of largest city in America is really a contest between these 3 cities, but I gave the nod to Mexico City. It's growth is slowing, but will probably stay ahead of New York in total size.
> 
> ...


Mexico City passed NYC's urban agglomeration in population during the 1990s & Sao Paulo is projected to overtake NYC within the next five years. Mexico City & Sao Paulo's big population booms have slowed way down since the 1980s, so the growth rates for all three cities are converging. All three are likely to remain in the same size bracket as the biggest cities in the Americas, North, Central, & South.


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## tollfreak (Jul 23, 2008)

the spliff fairy said:


> . Although Japan's population is falling, the cities are still growing as youth increasingly leave their emptied hometowns for the big city - to the experts surprise, after last year's census they discovered the Tokyo megalopolis had grown by 6 million in the last 10 years.


in population dynamics, a pyramid age structure does not look at the net migration rate, which is a reason why people think Tokyo's population is declining. Although the city has definitely passed it's carrying capacity it's still going to grow because of the factors said in the quote. It seems that also most cities in SE Asia that has exceeded it's carrying capacity will just continue to grow rapidly. This has been proven before. Jakarta's carrying capacity was designed to be just at 5-6 million the most by it's city planners in the 1970's and now the population is around 9 million and continues to sprawl due to immigration.But in an article in BBC, in the UK it has been proven wrong before, as experts in the 1960's over predicted UK's Population in the first decade of the 21st Century


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## foadi (Feb 15, 2006)

tollfreak, you're treating carrying capacity as a static ever unchanging number which doesn't make any sense. it increases over time with new development and improved infrastructure.


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## Chrissib (Feb 9, 2008)

foadi said:


> tollfreak, you're treating carrying capacity as a static ever unchanging number which doesn't make any sense. it increases over time with new development and improved infrastructure.


Exactly! The same with food production.


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## bubble07 (May 11, 2009)

i think tokyo.


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## Anderson Geimz (Mar 29, 2008)

isaidso said:


> Sao Paolo? It might be #1 in America, but it's really just a guessing game. Largest cities on other continents is an easier decision.


It's not a guessing game, I provided the numbers a couple of posts up!

The only thing that could be debated is the method used, but as you can see, SP has more people on a smaller area no matter how you look at it. And there is no doubt that the Brazilian government considers this a "combined metro area", because they call it that! SP "normal" metro area is bigger than Mexico City's and NYC's as well, and also city proper wise SP is the biggest (but I think we can all agree that this is not a good way to compare). I never found a reference that Mexico's government considers Mexico City-Puebla-Toluca-etc a combined metro area, but I do, and for the sake of fairness we all should. There is a possibility that when you use up to date "MSA" figures that Mexico City is slightly ahead of SP in that category, but we'll have to find recent figures. The figures I used, which showed SP slightly ahead, were from 2007.


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